This model is intended to be used hedging long market exposure, not as a stand-alone model. It periodically holds a maximum of 5 short positions of large-cap stocks. The model was backtested from Jan-2-2000 to May-4-2014 on the Portfolio123 simulation platform as a stand-alone-model and would have provided an annualized average return of 26.5% with a max drawdown of -22.7% over this period.
Blog Archives
iM-Best(XIU-Cash) Market Timing System for Canada
This model uses the signals from the iM-Best(SPY-SH) Market Timing System, substituting the Canadian ETF XIU for SPY and switches between XIU and Cash instead of SH. XIU tracks the S&P/TSX 60 Index and currency is Canadian Dollar.
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Is the TIAA Real Estate Account about to Roll Over?
The TIAA Real Estate Account, despite showing good returns over the last four years, is a typical example of a fund with disappointing performance over the longer term. In order to maximize one’s returns one has to know when to enter and exit the fund. My analysis shows that TIAA Real Estate may peak in the second half of 2014 which would provide an early indication to reduce one’s exposure. A firm sell signal would arise when its 1-year rolling return moves below 0%.
Gold: A Coppock Buy Signal for March 2014
The modified Coppock indicator will produce a buy signal for Gold within a few weeks. This is the result of various projections using random numbers between -$20 and +$30 and -$30 and +$20 for the weekly change of the gold price, representing upward- and downward trends for the metal’s price, respectively.
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iM’s BCIw: A Weeks to Recession Indicator
Economic indices, each a combination of a different set of economic data, often signal contradictory states of the economy. Not surprisingly, many prominent analysts relying on these indices have made incorrect forecasts. To aid recession forecasting, we now introduce the BCIw, an index derived from our iMarketSignals’ Business Cycle Index (BCI), calibrated in weeks to recession. Yes, you read this correctly; for example, if the BCIw has a value of 19 it indicates that there is a high probability of a recession starting in 19 weeks.
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Is there a Best Time of Day to Trade?
As the popularity of investing according to computerized algorithms increases, the question “When is it best to trade?” arises. Each investor has a different answers and opinion when it is best to trade. We approach this subject analytically to find a mathematical generated answer that is void of any emotions.
iM-Best Combo3: Best(SPY-SH) + Best1(Sector SPDR) + Best(SSO-TLT)
Using our three ETF models, Best(SPY-SH), Best1(Select SPDR) and Best(SSO-TLT) equal weighted in a combination model, we demonstrate that the combo would have produced high annualized returns of 34.3% with a low drawdown of -12.9% and low volatility. Additionally, due to the very high liquidity of its component ETFs, the combo could support a huge portfolio size.
iM-Best(SSO-TLT) Switching System
This model switches between SSO (ProShares Ultra two times daily S&P500 ETF) and TLT (iShares 20 Plus Year Treasury Bond ETF) depending on market direction. Using a web-based trading simulation platform and only market timing buy and sell rules in the algorithm, then this model would have produced an average annual return of about 38% from January 2000 to end of December 2013.
Estimating Stock Market Returns to 2020 and Beyond: Update January 2014
A major bull market may have commenced in 2009 for which evidence was presented in various 2012 commentaries. Since August 2012 the S&P 500 has gained a real 30% to the end of 2013. So what further gains can we expect?
iM-Best9(Russell 1000) – Large-Cap Portfolio Management System
This model invests in highly liquid large-cap stocks selected from those making up the Russell 1000 Index which represents the large-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. When adverse stock market conditions exist the model reduces the size of the stock holdings by 50% and buys the -1x leveraged ProShares Short S&P500 ETF (SH). It produced a simulated survivorship bias free average annual return of about 53% from Jan-2000 to end of Nov-2013.
With reference to Section 202(a)(11)(D) of the Investment Advisers Act:
We are Engineers and not Investment Advisers,
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