iMarketSignals – improve investment performance

We provide unbiased guidance to market direction. Our models can be classed into following  groups:

  • Leading recession indicators:
    • BCI is a Business Cycle Indicator optimised to identify a looming recession constructed from economic data series.
    • COMP is a recession indicator model constructed by combining third party leading indicators.
  • Buy and Hold investing. These models are macro by nature; trading signals from the models occur infrequently and are un-hedged – one does not have to trade constantly in and out of the markets.
    • MAC-US is a moving average crossover model for the S&P500.
    • MAC-AU is a moving average crossover model for the Australia All Ordinaries Index.
    • BVR is a bond market model based on mathematics alone.
    • Yield-Curve is a trend-following model.
    • GOLD is a rate-of-change trend-following model.
    • SILVER is a rate-of-change trend-following model.
  • Active weekly trading models based on a proprietary ranking system updated each week to generate un-biased and un-hedged buy- and sell-signals.
    • iM-BestX are weekly trading models based on the S&P 500, S&P1500 and Russell 1000 stock index series.
    • iM-Best(SPY-SH) is a market timing model, updated weekly on Sundays for the coming week.
    • iM-Best1(Sector SPDR) is a rotation system for the Select Sector SPDR® ETFs that divide the S&P500 into 9 sectors.
    • iM-Best(SSO-TLT) is a ETF switching system based on market timing.
    • iM-Best Combo3 is a combination model of Best(SPY-SH) + Best1(Sector SPDR) + Best(SSO-TLT), updated weekly on Sundays for the coming week.

The models are updated weekly and the charts depict the state of the various markets. They can be seen by registered/logged-in members.

The models have all been published. Before the models were available on the internet, weekly updates for the IBH, MAC, BVR and Yield-Curve were sent by email to subscribers for about two years – here are some of their comments:

 

This model and your fine work has been quite remarkable (and profitable). I have been enjoying your observations for quite some time. Job well done.
Edward Chrusciel

Your system looks pretty good. In fact, I was amazed by the high percentage winning trades and the very low drawdowns. I’ve never seen anything like that in a MA system.
Tom Swiatek

Regardless of which version one uses, it’s a powerful system. And it answers one of the most troubling worries that investors have. It efficiently gets them out of harm’s way when the market crashes.
Erik Conley

Thank you for your unique and excellent work. We will appreciate receiving your Modelling updates. Thanks!
Chuck Szkalak

The average investor reads the financial news and thinks that gives him an edge. That only tells him what everyone else knows and is worried about. We follow the excellent work of Georg Vrba, who has a top-rated coincident recession indicator as well as a successful stock/bond asset allocation model. Here is his most recent comment:  “My own composite short leading economic indicator, which has the  highest score of all indicators so far tested, does not support the notion of a recession anytime soon.” I listen to Georg, and you should too.
Jeffrey A. Miller, PhD, President NewArc Investments, Inc.

I took that S&P buy signal of yours with a little $50K futures contract and am very happy thank you.
Dwaine van Vuuren – CEO of PowerStocks

I have read and studied all your articles with interest. I have learned much from your perspectives and will continue to follow your work.
David Hamilton

Thank you for all your outstanding analysis. Let me say that I couldn’t agree more that data beats opinion.
Dave Lincoln

Georg Vrba asks whether the ECRI is still relevant. Great analysis and charts.
Jeffrey A. Miller, PhD, President NewArc Investments, Inc.

 

I very much liked the write up on your models, and if I may add these have a particular appeal and interest having been developed by a fellow engineer.
Paul Willis

Have seen so many manipulate data to fit their predetermined biases and love the way you methodically deconstructed the moving averages to debunk this one. It shows the difference between intellectual laziness and intellectual rigor which you fit to a tee.
Kuosen Fung, CFP®

Your work is really interesting and I’d love to receive your updates or any other information you publish. I honestly think your results indicate there is a way to time stock and bond market exposure. Most likely people will remain human and many will follow their “gut feel” or let fear or greed override any mathematical analysis. This is why your methods will most likely continue to work.
James Schwartz, CFP®

Georg Vrba, whose excellent work on recession forecasting has helped our readers, has two different market-timing methods. His most recent article explains that the next great bull market might already be here.
Jeffrey A. Miller, PhD, President NewArc Investments, Inc.

… as always love your analysis! Always eager for Friday’s just to receive your reports!
Jose R Barcelo

I agree with your viewpoint that mathematical models provide better guidance to market directions than financial experts. Thanks so much!
C.T. Wu, PhD in EECS

I just read your article on identifying recessions. Great work!
Richard G Greenwald, AAMS, CRPC

I appreciate using math to model financial behaviour and appreciate your good work.
Richard E. Hamrick, CFA®

This time it is perma-bear Albert Edwards warning investors about the “Ultimate Death Cross” taking the S&P 500 back to 666. Georg Vrba takes the analysis even further. He shows that Edwards’ prediction is almost impossible to accomplish if you actually do the math on the moving averages involved. In addition, he demonstrates that the current indicator conditions are actually bullish based on historical data.
Jeffrey A. Miller, PhD, President NewArc Investments, Inc.

I have great respect for your work and am grateful to be included on your list.
Marvin Snyder

I have your historical charts going back and it is great material. I appreciate your insights. Steve Wenstrup

 

I have been following your work for some time and have been very impressed.
Steve McCarthy, CPA, CFP®

I’m impressed that you provide this much analysis each week. Thank you for your insights. Your charts are beautiful & clear.
Brett Bowman

I am really impressed by your work and liked very much your last research on gold and silver. It’s good to see that you are expanding the scope of possible investments.
Nicolas Tabourdeau

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Featured

Beyond Buy-and-Hold: Improving Returns on Long-Term Investments Using the Shiller CAPE-MA35 Ratio

  • Forward 10-year annualized real returns of the S&P 500 Index can be determined by regression analysis using the ratio of the Shiller CAPE-ratio and its 35-year moving average (CMA-ratio).
  • Currently this ratio stands at 1.21 and forecasts a 10-year annualized real return of 6.2%, which would indicate that the market as represented by the S&P 500 is not overvalued.
  • Since 1979, when the CMA-ratio was within +/-5% of the current value the 10-year annualized real returns for the S&P500 that followed ranged from 4.7% to 14.6%, averaging 9.8%.
  • Investing in equities for the long-haul when the CMA-ratio is at 1.50 or higher produces poor returns, as this level of the ratio signifies overvaluation of the market.

Estimating Forward 10-Year Stock Market Returns using the Shiller CAPE Ratio and its 35-Year Moving Average. (Update Dec-2018)

  • The Dec-2018 Shiller Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings Ratio (CAPE-ratio) stands at 27.9, which is 11.0 above its long-term mean of 16.9, signifying overvaluation of stocks and low forward returns.
  • The MA35-CAPE-Ratio methodology references stock market valuation to a 35-year moving-average of the Shiller CAPE-ratio (MA35) instead of the 1881-2018 long-term mean which the standard forecasting method is based on.
  • The MA35-CAPE-Ratio method should be superior to the standard CAPE-ratio method as only the percentage difference between the CAPE-ratio and its MA35 is considered, and not the absolute difference.
  • The MA35-CAPE-Ratio method and the falling trend of the CAPE-ratio currently signal a forward 10-year annualized real return for stocks of about 5.8%, while the historic long-term trend forecasts 5.0%.
  • Only the ratio between the prevailing CAPE-ratio and its 35-year moving average (CAPE-ratio / MA35) is needed to easily obtain the expected 10-year forward returns from the charts in this article.

The iM-SuperTimer: Timing the Market with the iM-Stock Market Confidence Level

  • The system uses a composite model consisting of several market timers. It should deliver more reliable signals for profitable stock market investment than single market timing models.
  • Component timers are allocated a 100% stock holding percentage when the timer signals investment in the stock market, or 0% when the timer it is out of the stock market.
  • A weekly Stock Market Confidence Level (SMC level), which can range from 0% to 100%, is obtained by considering the percentage allocated to each component timer and the timer’s weight in the system.
  • The optimal SMC level for stock market investment is found by optimizing a stock-bond model for various SMC levels considering returns and drawdowns relative to buy-and-hold the S&P 500 index.
  • A backtest of a combination model of thirteen iMarketSignals timers signaled avoidance of the stock market for SMC levels <=50%, while SMC levels >50% suggest better stock market investment climates.

The iM-FlipSaver Models (Revised)

In order to simplify retirement investment we are replacing our iM-Vanguard/TIAA-CREF Systems (updated monthly) with three iM-FlipSaver Models (updated weekly).

Prudent investors have assets allocated to both bonds and stocks. This conservative strategy is found in the Vanguard LifeStrategy Funds that invest statically in bonds and stocks and also in Life-Cycle/Target-Date Retirement Funds.

Instead of a static bond/stock ratio, these models change allocation in accordance with stock market conditions; e.g. during up-market periods the models hold more stocks than bonds, and during down-market periods the allocation “flips” to holding less stocks than bonds. This should improve performance and reduce drawdowns.

Countdown To The 34th S&P 500 Death Cross; Update 12/6/2018

  • The 34th occurrence (since 1950) of the 50-day moving average of the S&P 500 crossing its 200-day moving average to the downside is imminent.
  • With the S&P 500 closing at 2,700.07 on 12/4/2018 the Death Cross is expected, with high probability, on Friday December 7.
  • Will the arrest of Huawei’s chief financial officer drive the S&P 500 below 2602 today for an earlier Death Cross?
  • The looming Death Cross could indicate the potential for a major selloff.

With reference to Section 202(a)(11)(D) of the Investment Advisers Act: We are Engineers and not Investment Advisers, read more ...
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