Blog Archives

iM-Best Reports – 10/14/2019

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iM Update* – October 10, 2019

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iM Update – October 10, 2019

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No Sight of Next Recession: Business Cycle Index Update 10/10/2019

Is your investment strategy protecting your assets from the next recession? Our Business Cycle Index is a tool to help you gauge recession risk.

Posted in BCI

BCI October 10, 2019

 
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iM-Best Reports – 10/7/2019

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iM Update – October 4, 2019

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iM Update* – October 4, 2019

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Monthly Update – October 4, 2019

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The Unemployment Rate Does Not Signal A Recession Soon: Update – October 4, 2019

  • For what is considered to be a lagging indicator of the economy, the unemployment rate provides surprisingly good signals for the beginning and end of recessions.
  • This model, backtested to 1948, reliably provided recession signals.
  • The model, updated with the September 2019 rate of 3.5%, does not signal a recession.

A reliable source for recession forecasting is the unemployment rate, which can provide signals for the beginning and end of recessions (Appendix B charts the UER recession indicator for the period 1948 to 2015). The unemployment rate model (article link) updated with the September 2019 rate of 3.5% does not signal a recession.
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