Blog Archives

iM-Best Reports – 2/19/2019

Read more >

Posted in pmp SPY-SH

iM Update* – February 15, 2019

Posted in pmp paid update

iM Update – February 15, 2019

Posted in pmp free update

Beyond Buy-and-Hold: Improving Returns on Long-Term Investments Using the Shiller CAPE-MA35 Ratio

  • Forward 10-year annualized real returns of the S&P 500 Index can be determined by regression analysis using the ratio of the Shiller CAPE-ratio and its 35-year moving average (CMA-ratio).
  • Currently this ratio stands at 1.21 and forecasts a 10-year annualized real return of 6.2%, which would indicate that the market as represented by the S&P 500 is not overvalued.
  • Since 1979, when the CMA-ratio was within +/-5% of the current value the 10-year annualized real returns for the S&P500 that followed ranged from 4.7% to 14.6%, averaging 9.8%.
  • Investing in equities for the long-haul when the CMA-ratio is at 1.50 or higher produces poor returns, as this level of the ratio signifies overvaluation of the market.

Posted in blogs, featured

BCI February 14, 2019

 
Read more >

Posted in pmp BCI

No Sight of Next Recession: Business Cycle Index Update 2/14/2019

Is your investment strategy protecting your assets from the next recession? Our Business Cycle Index is a tool to help you gauge recession risk.

Posted in BCI

iM-Best Reports – 2/11/2019

Read more >

Posted in pmp SPY-SH

iM Update – February 8, 2019

Posted in pmp free update

iM Update* – February 8, 2019

Posted in pmp paid update

No Sight of Next Recession: Business Cycle Index Update 2/7/2019

Is your investment strategy protecting your assets from the next recession? Our Business Cycle Index is a tool to help you gauge recession risk.

Posted in BCI
With reference to Section 202(a)(11)(D) of the Investment Advisers Act: We are Engineers and not Investment Advisers, read more ...
By the mere act of reading this page and navigating this site you acknowledge, agree to, and abide by the Terms of Use / Disclaimer