2015-01-03 Is The Stock Market Overvalued? Estimating Returns To 2020 And Beyond
2014-09-23 Minimum Volatility Stocks: Out-Of-Sample Performance of iM’s Best12(USMV)
2014-09-11 Vanguard Funds With Dynamic Asset Allocation: Which is the Asset Allocation “that’s right for your situation”?
2014-09-03 Vanguard’s Actively Managed Funds With Dynamic Asset Allocation: The Best Bet For High Returns
2014-08-06 iM’s Improved Floor-Leverage Rule with Put Option Insurance
2014-07-18 More Retirement Income with iM’s Improved Floor-Leverage Rule: 6.5% Safe Withdrawal Rate
2014-06-27 Minimum Volatility Stocks: Better Tax Efficient Returns also during Rising Markets
2014-06-05 Backtesting the MAC-System: How Long is Long Enough?
2014-02-28 Is the TIAA Real Estate Account about to Roll Over?
2014-02-18 Gold: A Coppock Buy Signal for March 2014
2014-01-30 iM’s BCIw: A Weeks-to-Recession Indicator (co-authored with Anton Vrba)
2014-01-24 Is There a Best Time of Day to Trade? (co-authored with Anton Vrba)
2014-01-03 Estimating Stock Market Returns to 2020 and Beyond: Update
2013-11-15 The Ultimate Death Cross – One Year Later
2013-11-01 iM-Best1(Sector SPDR) Rotation System
2013-10-26 A Buy Signal from the Modified Coppock Indicator for the S&P 500
2013-10-04 Better Returns from World Markets with iM-Best(SPY-SH) Market Timing System
2013-09-19 iM-Best(SSO-SDS): Beating the Market with Leveraged ETFs
2013-09-11 iM-Best(SPY-Cash) Market Timing System: Gains in Up Markets – Cash in Down Markets
2013-08-30 iM-Best(SPY-SH) Market Timing System: Gains for Up and Down Markets
2013-08-12 Gold: When Will the Next Buy Signal Emerge?
2013-07-09 iM-Best10(S&P1500): A Portfolio Management System for High Returns from the S&P 1500 (co-authored with Anton Vrba)
2013-07-02 Gold: How Much Lower Will it Go?
2013-06-29 Seeking Beta in the Bond Market: Avoid Bonds
2013-06-24 Survivorship Bias: neither Myth nor Fact (co-authored with Anton Vrba)
2013-06-11 iM-Best10+: A Portfolio Management System for Very High Returns
2013-06-06 iM-Best10: A Portfolio Management System for High Returns
2013-05-14 MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations
2013-05-07 When Will the Fed’s Easing Measures End? The Unemployment Rate is the Key
2013-05-03 The Unemployment Rate Is Not Signaling a Recession: Update
2013-05-02 The True Workforce Participation Rate and Employment to Workforce Ratio Signal a Growing Economy (Anton Vrba)
2013-04-29 iM’s Business Cycle Index in Off-Peak-Mode; Long Recession Leads and Good Stock-Market Exit Signals (co-authored with Anton Vrba)
2013-04-24 Exit Signals for the Stock Market from iM’s Business Cycle Index (co-authored with Anton Vrba)
2013-04-22 iM’s Weekly Business Cycle Index; 11 Week Average Warning for the Past 7 Recessions with No False Positives (co-authored with Anton Vrba)
2013-04-17 Silver Outshines Gold: A Buy Signal
2013-04-05 The Unemployment Rate Is Not Signaling a Recession: Update
2013-04-02 Does ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index Remain a Usable Indicator? (co-authored with Anton Vrba)
2013-03-27 A Modified Coppock Indicator for the S&P
2013-03-25 Why is M2 Still a Component of ECRI’s WLI? (co-authored with Anton Vrba)
2013-03-18 Improving on Buy and Hold: A Sell Signal
2013-03-08 The Unemployment Rate Is Not Signaling a Recession: Update
2013-02-19 The Use of Recession Indicators in Stock Market Timing
2013-02-11 Silver – Better Than Gold: A Modified Coppock Indicator for Silver
2013-02-06 Is it Time to Buy Gold Again? – Wait for the buy signal …….
2013-01-03 Is it Time to Buy Gold Again?
2012-12-13 Where is Unemployment Headed? – An Educated Guess
2012-12-07 The Unemployment Rate Does Not Signal a Recession Now
2012-11-19 Improving on Buy and Hold: A Sell Signal (this signal was generated due to ECRI’s WLI being adversely affected for 3 weeks by unusually high initial claims for unemployment insurance after hurricane Sandy. When normal claims figures were used to produce an adjusted WLI for this period then the model did not generate this sell signal. The sell signal was therefore retroactively discarded.)
2012-11-12 So where is the Ultimate Death Cross, Mr. Edwards?
2012-10-17 Maximizing Profits in a Low Stock Return Environment
2012-10-05 The Unemployment Rate as a Coincident Recession Indicator: Update
2012-09-10 The Improved MAC-System
2012-08-23 Gold-Is the Price Too High
2012-08-20 Estimating Stock Market Returns to 2020 and Beyond
2012-08-14 Is the Next Great Bull Market Already Here?
2012-08-09 Get Ready for the Next Great Bull Market
2012-08-03 Improving on Buy and Hold: A Buy Signal
2012-08-02 Market Timing – The Better Way to Invest
2012-07-31 Beyond the Ultimate Death Cross
2012-07-24 The Ultimate Death Cross – False Harbinger of Doom
2012-07-24 Anticipating the Ultimate Death Cross
2012-07-03 Letter to Editor – re Hussman’s recession warning
2012-06-26 Recession or No Recession: Is ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index Still Relevant?
2012-06-20 Improving on Buy and Hold: A Basic-Sell Signal
2012-06-19 Likelihood Ratios and their use in Recession Indicators
2012-05-07 The Adjusted Gold/XAU Ratio as an Indicator of Forward Returns for Gold Stocks – An Update
2012-04-17 The Unemployment Rate: A Coincident Recession Indicator (*)
2012-03-06 ECRI’s Recession Call: “Is There Something Magic About 2 Percent?”
2012-03-02 The Elusive 2012 Recession: When Can We Expect It? (*)
2012-02-27 Deconstructing ECRI’s Defense of its Recession Call
2012-02-21 Evaluating Popular Recession Indicators
2012-01-17 Further Improving the Use of the ECRI WLI (*)
2011-12-13 Improving on Buy and Hold: A Buy Signal
2011-11-15 Are Gold Prices Correlated to the Real Federal Funds Rate?
2011-10-04 The Adjusted Gold/XAU Ratio as an Indicator of Forward Returns for Gold Stocks
2011-08-30 Seeking Beta in the Bond Market: Sell Long Bonds
2011-08-02 Does Citigroup’s Panic/Euphoria Model Work?
2011-07-12 Profiting from the Steep Yield Curve
2011-06-28 Where are Long Bond Yields Heading?-The Bond Value Ratio as a Predictor of Future Yields
2011-06-07 Improving on Buy and Hold: When is the Best Time to Sell
2011-05-31 Letter to the Editor – Challenging Dave Rosenberg
2011-05-17 Improving on Buy and Hold: An Initial Sell Signal
2011-01-25 Go for the Long Bond: Technical Indicators are Positive
2011-01-04 Improving on Buy and Hold: Update December 31, 2010
2011-01-04 Seeking Beta in the Bond Market: Update December 31, 2010
2010-12-21 Challenging John Hussman’s Forecast
2010-11-23 Seeking Beta in the Bond Market: A Math-driven Investment Strategy for Higher Returns
2010-10-26 Improving on Buy and Hold: Buy
2010-10-05 Improving on Buy and Hold: Don’t Buy Yet
2010-09-28 Improving on Buy and Hold: The Updated Signals
2010-08-24 Improving on Buy and Hold: Asset Allocation using Economic Indicators
(*) co-authored with Dwaine van Vuuren