Blog Archives

The iM Minimum Volatility (USMV) – Investor

  • Since the launch of IM-Best12(USMV)Qx (x=1,2,3,or 4) in 2014, these models converged to a combined holding of 18 stocks, thus future performance of each of the models is expected to be very similar.
  • There is not much to be gained by following four similar models and these are now replaced by the iM Min Volatility(USMV)-Investor.
  • This model holds 10 equal weighted stocks and the simulated performance since 1/3/2013 shows an annualized return of 22.0% versus 14.3% for SPY and an annual turnover ratio of 60%
  • As from Sunday 7 July we will disseminate to Gold Subscribers any buy/sell signals this model generates.

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Is the Stock Market Overvalued? – Update July 2019, and 10-Year Real Forward Return Estimate

  • The average of S&P 500 for Jun-2019 was 2,890. A 20% decline from this level would bring it to the Jan-2020 level of the long-term trend line.
  • The Shiller Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings Ratio (CAPE) is at a relatively high level of 28.9, and the CAPE’s 35-year moving average (MA35) is at 23.9.
  • The CAPE-MA35 ratio is 1.21, forecasting a 10-year annualized real return of 6.2%. This would indicate that for long-term investors the S&P 500 is currently not overvalued.
  • Investing in equities for the long-haul when the CAPE-MA35 ratio is below 1.30 should produce reasonable returns as this level of the ratio does not signifies overvaluation of the market.

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The iM-SuperTimer – Simulated on Portfolio 123

  • For a detailed model description of the system please read the original description, update No.1 and update No.2
  • We have transferred the excel data onto Portfolio 123 and will in future be providing signals and performance for the weekly, monthly and 3-month models running on Portfolio 123, all updated weekly.
  • The models’ holdings alternate between ETF (SPY) and ETF (IEF), being proxies for investments during up- and down stock market periods.

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A Winning Strategy to Profit from the Seasonal Effect in Equities

  • The seasonal effect that equities do better from November through April is well-known. Here we provide a rigorous statistical test of this and a trading strategy to profits from it.
  • From 1960 the S&P 500 with dividends returned on average 1.92% for the six months May to October, the “bad-periods”, while the “good-periods”, November to April, returned 8.47% on average.
  • Statistics provide a 65% probability that good-periods will produce higher returns than the average of all good- and bad-periods, and a similar probability that the bad-periods will produce lower returns.
  • This anomaly can be exploited by tactically shifting from more aggressive “good-period portfolios” to lower risk portfolios at the end of every April, and reversing the process end of October.
  • Switching accordingly between the S&P 500 and 10-Year Treasuries would have provided an annualized return of 12.1% from 1960 to 2019 versus 9.4% for buy-and-hold the S&P 500.

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The iM-SuperTimer – Update No.2:
Timing the Market with the iM-Stock Market Confidence Level

  • For a detailed model description of the system please read the original description and previous update.
  • To make this model more user-friendly we will be providing signals for three different version of this model, all updated weekly.
  • The models’ holdings alternate between ETF (SPY) and ETF (IEF), being proxies for investments during up- and down stock market periods, respectively.
  • The strategy was modeled in excel with weekly data, and performance includes trading costs of 0.1% of the total switch trade amounts.

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The iM-SuperTimer – Update March 2019: Timing the Market with the iM-Stock Market Confidence Level

  • The system uses a composite model consisting of several market timers. It should deliver more reliable signals for profitable investment and saving plans than single market timing models.
  • Component timers are allocated a 100% stock holding percentage when the timer signals investment in the stock market, or 0% when the timer it is out of the stock market.
  • A weekly Stock Market Confidence Level (SMC level), which can range from 0% to 100%, is obtained by considering the percentage allocated to each component timer and the timer’s weight in the system.
  • A backtest of a combination model of 15 iMarketSignals timers signaled avoidance of the stock market for SMC levels <=50%, while SMC levels >50% suggest better stock market investment climates.

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Estimating Forward 10-Year Stock Market Returns using the Shiller CAPE Ratio and its 35-Year Moving Average. (Update Dec-2018)

  • The Dec-2018 Shiller Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings Ratio (CAPE-ratio) stands at 27.9, which is 11.0 above its long-term mean of 16.9, signifying overvaluation of stocks and low forward returns.
  • The MA35-CAPE-Ratio methodology references stock market valuation to a 35-year moving-average of the Shiller CAPE-ratio (MA35) instead of the 1881-2018 long-term mean which the standard forecasting method is based on.
  • The MA35-CAPE-Ratio method should be superior to the standard CAPE-ratio method as only the percentage difference between the CAPE-ratio and its MA35 is considered, and not the absolute difference.
  • The MA35-CAPE-Ratio method and the falling trend of the CAPE-ratio currently signal a forward 10-year annualized real return for stocks of about 5.8%, while the historic long-term trend forecasts 5.0%.
  • Only the ratio between the prevailing CAPE-ratio and its 35-year moving average (CAPE-ratio / MA35) is needed to easily obtain the expected 10-year forward returns from the charts in this article.

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The iM-SuperTimer: Timing the Market with the iM-Stock Market Confidence Level

  • The system uses a composite model consisting of several market timers. It should deliver more reliable signals for profitable stock market investment than single market timing models.
  • Component timers are allocated a 100% stock holding percentage when the timer signals investment in the stock market, or 0% when the timer it is out of the stock market.
  • A weekly Stock Market Confidence Level (SMC level), which can range from 0% to 100%, is obtained by considering the percentage allocated to each component timer and the timer’s weight in the system.
  • The optimal SMC level for stock market investment is found by optimizing a stock-bond model for various SMC levels considering returns and drawdowns relative to buy-and-hold the S&P 500 index.
  • A backtest of a combination model of thirteen iMarketSignals timers signaled avoidance of the stock market for SMC levels <=50%, while SMC levels >50% suggest better stock market investment climates.

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The iM-FlipSaver Models (Revised)

In order to simplify retirement investment we are replacing our iM-Vanguard/TIAA-CREF Systems (updated monthly) with three iM-FlipSaver Models (updated weekly).

Prudent investors have assets allocated to both bonds and stocks. This conservative strategy is found in the Vanguard LifeStrategy Funds that invest statically in bonds and stocks and also in Life-Cycle/Target-Date Retirement Funds.

Instead of a static bond/stock ratio, these models change allocation in accordance with stock market conditions; e.g. during up-market periods the models hold more stocks than bonds, and during down-market periods the allocation “flips” to holding less stocks than bonds. This should improve performance and reduce drawdowns.

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The iM-Low Frequency Timer

  • Over the last 20 years this Timer provided only two exit periods for the stock market.
  • By being out of the stock market during those periods one would have avoided most of the two bear markets and losses of 35% and 43%, respectively.

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