How to Use iMarketSignals for Retirement Accounts

A Dynamic Asset Allocation strategy applied to bond- and stock-funds increases returns and reduces risk. During up-market periods more money is allocated to stock funds than bond funds, and conversely during down-market periods more money is allocated to bond funds than stock funds.  The up- and down-market periods come from our MAC-US .

Weekly Data Updates relevant to Retirement Accounts

(i) The MAC-US: If sell-spread falls below zero a down-stockmarket is signaled. Subsequently when buy-spread moves from below to above zero an up-stockmarket is indicated.

Fig-2.-12-18-2020.png 1/22/2021: Latest update only available to Bronze members

12/18/2020: The MAC-US model is invested in the stock market.

 

(ii) The Recession Indicators COMP, BCI and FRR2-10:  If a recession is signaled it may be advisable to exit stock market completely. These three recession indicators have different lead times: FRR2-10 an average of 14 months, BCIp an average of 20 weeks, and COMP (as well as BCIg) an average of 10 weeks.

Fig-3.-12-18-2020.png 1/22/2021: Latest update only available to Bronze members

12/18/2020: show=0]

 

Market Signals Summary:

The MAC-US and the 3-mo Hi-Lo are invested in the stock market. The bond market model avoids high beta (long) bonds. The Gold Coppock and the iM-Gold Timer remain in gold. The Silver Coppock model is also invested in silver.

The iM-GT Timer, based on Google Search Trends volume is invested in the stock market since 7/1/2020.

Stock-markets:

Fig-2.-5-25-2015 The MAC-US model is invested in the stock market.

 

BCI-12-17-2020.png 1/21/2021: Latest update only available to Bronze members

12/17/2020: gn=”right”>

iM-Weekly Unemployment Monitor

WCEM-Fig-1-5-25-2015

The initial claims and continued claims decreased against the previous week but remain at record levels. Also, the Covered Employment (a quarterly updated figure) decreased by 4,401,167, or 3%. This is a record; during the 2008 Great Recession, the greatest quarterly drop was 1.4%.

The non-seasonal adjusted initial claims totaled 960,668 in the week ending January 16, a decrease of 151,303 from the previous week (compared to 956,791 initial claims on 1/10/2009 the peak during the 2008 Great Recession), the sixth running week of over 800,000. This makes up 0.68% of the Covered Employment. The 50-year long-term average (January 1971 to today) is 0.38% and the average of the last business cycle (July 2009 to March 2020) is 0.24%

The non-seasonal adjusted continuous insured unemployment in state programs totaled 5,563,048, a decrease of 203,750 from the preceding week.

The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs week ending January 2 was 15,994,519, a decrease of 2,412,508 from the previous week.

 

Please refer The iM-Weekly Unemploy

Fig-3.2-1-15-2021.png 1/22/2021: Latest update only available to Bronze members

1/15/2021: The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (FRR2-10) is above last week’s level.

A description of this indicator can be found here.

(iii) The Bond Value Ratio (BVR): To determine whether to be invested in long-bond funds or short-bond funds.

Fig-4.-12-18-2020.png 1/22/2021: To view latest update please log in

12/18/2020: The BVR-model avoids high beta bonds (long-bonds) and also intermediate duration bonds.

The Bond Value Ratio is shown in Fig 4 and is near last week’s value.  According to the model, only when BVR turns upward after having been lower than the lower offset-line should one consider long bonds again.

 Monthly Data Updates relevant to Retirement Accounts

(iv) The Unemployment Rate Recession Model:  If a recession is signaled it may be advisable to exit stock market completely.

Fig-8.-12-4-2020.png 1/8/2021: To view latest update please log in

12/4/2020: 4>
The 1/8/2020 employment report claims 6.7% UER (last month 6.7%) and a total labor force 160,567,000 for mid-November 2020. However, the 12/3/2020 unemployment insurance report shows 19,176,857 persons claiming UI benefits week ending December 19.  Thus 19.18/160.57 = 11.9% (last month 12.6%) UER calculated from the unemployment insurance claims for exactly the same period.

 

CAPE-Cycle-ID

Fig-9a-5-25-2015Fig 9a depicts the CAPE-Cycle-ID and the year-on-year rate-of-change of the Shiller CAPE;  the level switched from 0 to +2 end of June 2020. This indicator is described here.

To avoid the bear market, exit stocks when the spread between the 5-month and 25-month moving averages of S&P-real becomes negative and simultaneously the CAPE-Cycle-ID score is 0 or -2. (read more)

 

Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns

Fig-9b-5-25-2015The estimated forward 10‐year annualized real return decreased to 5.0% (previous 5.4) with a 95% confidence interval : 3.5% to 6.4% (previous 4.0% to 6.8%).

 

 

iM-GT Timer

Fig-10-5-25-2015The iM-GT Timer, based on Google Search Trends volume indicator is invested the stock market since  7/1/2020. This indicator is described here.

(iv) The TIAA Real Estate Timed Account :   If rolling 1-year return falls below 0% model goes to cash. Subsequently when rolling 1-year return moves above 0% a new investment is made.

Fig-10.-12-4-2020.png 1/8/2021: To view latest update please log in

12/4/2020: >
The 1/8/2020 employment report claims 6.7% UER (last month 6.7%) and a total labor force 160,567,000 for mid-November 2020. However, the 12/3/2020 unemployment insurance report shows 19,176,857 persons claiming UI benefits week ending December 19.  Thus 19.18/160.57 = 11.9% (last month 12.6%) UER calculated from the unemployment insurance claims for exactly the same period.

 

CAPE-Cycle-ID

Fig-9a-5-25-2015Fig 9a depicts the CAPE-Cycle-ID and the year-on-year rate-of-change of the Shiller CAPE;  the level switched from 0 to +2 end of June 2020. This indicator is described here.

To avoid the bear market, exit stocks when the spread between the 5-month and 25-month moving averages of S&P-real becomes negative and simultaneously the CAPE-Cycle-ID score is 0 or -2. (read more)

 

Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns

Fig-9b-5-25-2015The estimated forward 10‐year annualized real return decreased to 5.0% (previous 5.4) with a 95% confidence interval : 3.5% to 6.4% (previous 4.0% to 6.8%).

 

 

iM-GT Timer

Fig-10-5-25-2015The iM-GT Timer, based on Google Search Trends volume indicator is invested the stock market since  7/1/2020. This indicator is described here.

Dynamic Asset Allocation Models (monthly)

(vi) Vanguard Systems: Historical performance and current allocations are shown for three systems: 1a, 2a and 3a. The three different systems range from a mix of conservative index funds to moderately aggressive managed Vanguard funds. Each system has three sub-systems with different allocations between bond- and stock-funds (20/80, 30/70 and 40/60). For example, 20/80 signifies a nominal allocation of 20%bonds and 80%stocks during up-market periods, and 80%bonds and 20%stocks during down-stock market periods. The most conservative allocation would be 40/60. Although the models use particular bond funds, it may be advisable to consult the BVR model to determine whether to be invested in long-bond funds or short-bond funds.

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Fig13.2s4b-4-7-2015 12/7/2018: Performance comparison of the iM Vanguard Systems, read more ....

(vii) Vanguard + TIAA Systems: Historical performance and current allocations are shown for four systems: 1b, 2b, 3b and 4a. The four different systems range from a mix of conservative index funds to moderately aggressive managed Vanguard funds in combination with the TIAA Real Estate Account. Each system has three sub-systems with different allocations between bond- and stock-funds & TIAA Real Estate Account (20/80, 30/70 and 40/60). The most conservative allocation would be 40/60. Although the models use particular bond funds, it may be advisable to consult the BVR model to determine whether to be invested in long-bond funds or short-bond funds.

Fig13.2s4b-4-7-2015 12/7/2018: Performance comparison of the iM Vanguard Systems combined with TIAA Real Estates timed, read more ....

 iM-News eMail Service

(vii) Friday’s Weekly Update: A ticked box indicates that you will receive Friday’s update email. (You can toggle the tick by clicking on the box.) The email notifies, subject to membership category, any signals that may have been generated, as well as the current nominal allocations for the above models are publicized.

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