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iM’s Business Cycle Index Signals a Looming Recession – Update 1/12/2023

Posted on Jan 12, 2023 by Anton Vrba — 1 Comment ↓

Knowing when the U.S. economy is heading for recession is paramount to successful investment decisions.
Our weekly Business Cycle Index would have provided early reliable warnings for the past seven recessions and signaled the Covid 2020 recession one week late.
The BCI is now signalling a recession, earliest in 12 weeks but not later than 25weeks.

Tagged with: BCI
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Expect Further Losses For Stocks but 10-Year Forward Returns Look Better: Update December2022

Posted on Dec 3, 2022 by Anton Vrba — No Comments ↓

The average of S&P 500 for Nov-2022 was 3,917 (16% down from Dec-2021 average of 4,675) and is 385 points higher than the corresponding re-calibrated long-term trend value of 3,532.
For the S&P 500 to reach the corresponding long-trend value would entail a 10% decline from the November average value, indicating that the S&P 500 is not significantly overvalued anymore.
The Shiller CAPE-ratio is at 28.3, 10% higher than its 35-year moving average (MA35), currently at 25.8, forecasting a relatively high 10-year annualized real return of about 7.2%.
The long-term trend indicates a forward 10-year annualized real return of 5.5%
However, rising inflation with a falling CAPE-MA35 ratio, similar to what occurred in the period 1964-1973, implies very low or negative 10-year forward annualized real returns.

Posted in 2020, blogs, featured

An Upcoming Recession is Signaled by the Forward Rate Ratio

Posted on Aug 5, 2022 by Anton Vrba — No Comments ↓

Prior to recession the yield curve becomes inverted, as indicated by the Forward Rate Ratio between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (FRR2-10) being less than 1.00.
The FRR2-10 crosses 1.000 downward signifying that US economic activity is in the boom phase of the business cycle, nearing the next recession.
The average lead time after FRR2-10 becomes less than 1.00 to the subsequent recession start was 14 months for the seven of the eight last recessions.

Tagged with: Recession
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Expect Further Losses For Stocks And Very Low 10-Year Forward Returns: Update July 2022

Posted on Jul 2, 2022 by Anton Vrba — No Comments ↓

The average of S&P 500 for May 2022 was 4,040 (14% down from December 2021 average) and is still 1,469 points higher than the corresponding long-term trend value of 2,571.
For the S&P 500 to reach the long-trend would entail a 36% decline from the May average value, possibly over a short period.
The Shiller CAPE-ratio is at a level of 31.0. That is 21% higher than its 35-year moving average (MA35), currently at 25.6.
The CAPE-MA35 ratio is at 1.21 (down from the December 2021 level of 1.51), forecasting a 10-year annualized real return of about 6.3%.
However, rising inflation with a falling CAPE-MA35 ratio, similar to what occurred in the period 1964-1973, implies very low or negative 10-year forward annualized real returns.
The historic long-term trend indicates a 10-year forward real annualized return of only 1.9% (up from the December 2021 forecast of 0.2%).

Posted in 2020, blogs, featured

The iM-Inflation Attuned Multi-Model Market Timer

Posted on May 13, 2022 by Georg Vrba — 44 Comments ↓

Investment risk can be reduced by a multi-model market timer whose many components use different and uncorrelated financial and economic data, including inflation.
This model seeks to determine effective asset allocation for risk-on and risk-off periods for equities considering the effect of inflation.
Four risk scenarios are possible: risk-on & normal-inflation, risk-on & high-inflation, risk-off & normal-inflation, and risk-off & high-inflation. Different ETF groups apply to each risk scenario.
From 2000 to 2022, switching accordingly between risk-related ETF groups would have produced an annualized return of about 39% versus 6.5% for buy and hold SPY.

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Evaluating Popular Asset Classes for Inflation Protection

Posted on May 6, 2022 by Georg Vrba — 1 Comment ↓

We tested nine asset classes which are supposed to provide protection against inflation according to an Investopedia article. The test period was from January 2005 to May 2022.
Investopedia provides no definition for inflationary environment, but this analysis uses the 6-month moving average of the inflation rate and the University of Michigan: Inflation Expectation© series to define it.
For this investigation we consider separately the inflationary periods which fall within the Risk-on and Risk-off phases for equities, as defined by the iM-Multi-Model Market Timer.
From the asset classes listed by Investopedia only the Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ) provided some inflation protection relative to the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY).
Better inflation protection is provided by energy sector ETFs XLE and PXE, but energy sector funds were not among the asset classes listed in the Investopedia article.

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The Stock Market Has Peaked, S&P 500 Death Cross For The Ides Of March: Update March 2022

Posted on Mar 11, 2022 by Georg Vrba — No Comments ↓

The average of S&P 500 for February 2022 was 4436 (5% down from December 2021 average) and is still 1896 points higher than the corresponding long-term trend value of 2540.
A reversal to the long-trend would entail a 43% decline, possibly over a short period aggravated by the imminent S&P500 death cross.
The Shiller CAPE-ratio is at a level of 35.9 (down 7.2% from its recent peak of 38.7). That is 41% higher than its 35-year moving average (MA35), currently at 25.5.
The CAPE-MA35 ratio is 1.41 (down from the end of December 2021 level of 1.51), forecasting a 10-year annualized real return of about 4.6%.
The historic long-term trend indicates a 10-year forward real annualized return of only 0.8% (up from the end of December 2021 forecast of 0.2%).

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The iM-Multi-Model Market Timer – Not Your Daddy’s Old Moving Average Crossover System

Posted on Jan 24, 2022 by Georg Vrba — 26 Comments ↓

Reliance on a single market timer is risky. The risk can be reduced by a multi-model market timer whose many components use different and uncorrelated financial and economic data.
This model seeks to determine reliable risk-on and risk-off periods for the stock market. When there is no definite signal for risk-on or risk-off then the investment is considered risk-neutral.
From 2000 to 2022, switching between ETFs RSP, VGT, SH, TIP, BIV and IEF would have produced an annualized return of 34.2% versus 7.0% for buy and hold SPY.
The model is not a binary indicator between risk-on and risk-off and does not rely on leveraged ETFs to produce such high returns.

Posted in 2020, blogs, featured

The Stock Market Is Overpriced, Expect Very Low 10-Year Forward Returns And Zero Real Returns By 2028: Update December 2021

Posted on Dec 31, 2021 by Anton Vrba — No Comments ↓

The average of S&P 500 for December 2021 was 4675 (previous month 4670). This is 2155 points higher than the long-term trend value of 2520.
The current percentage difference of S&P 500 level relative to the current long-term trend level is 85%, a value not exceeded in the recent past since 2001.
The Shiller Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings Ratio (CAPE) is at a level of 38.4. That is 51% higher than its 35-year moving average (MA35), currently at 25.4.
The CAPE-MA35 ratio is 1.51, forecasting a 10-year annualized real return of about 3.8%. Should the CAPE-MA35 ratio increase further, then 10-year forward returns will be even lower.
The historic long-term trend indicates a 10-year forward real annualized return of only 0.2%, and the current condition of overvaluation suggest zero returns by the end of 2028.

Posted in 2020, blogs, featured

Don’t Buy The 25 S&P 500 Stocks That Have Made The Largest Contribution To The Index’s YTD Return – Higher Ranked Is Not Better

Posted on Dec 30, 2021 by Anton Vrba — 6 Comments ↓

Goldman Sachs reported that only 25 stocks accounted for 58% of the index’s 2021 gains, including reinvested dividends, through Dec-9-2021.
One can verify the accuracy of this list by ranking the S&P 500 stocks on the factor “Market Capitalization x 1-year Rate-of-Change”, with higher being better.
Backtesting to Jan-2000 shows that buying the 25 highest ranked stocks every year at the end of December would have approximately matched the performance of SPY over the backtest period.
However, investing similarly in the 25 highest ranked stocks of the lower two terciles of the ranked S&P 500 would have provided over 3-times the total return of SPY.
The list of 25 S&P 500 stocks to hold during 2022 is given in Appendix-2, which is expected to provide higher returns to Dec-2022 than the Goldman Sachs list.

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