- The Covid triggered recession probably ended in October 2020 according to two reliable recession indicator models.
- Analyzing the series data of both the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index and the American Chemistry Council’s Chemical Activity Barometer results this conclusion.
- The National Bureau of Economic Research Business Cycle Dating Committee has yet to announce the end of the recession.
The start of the 2020 recession was reported on March 22, 2020 when we announced that the anticipated March 2020 Unemployment Rate would signal the start of a recession.
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- The Yield Curve / Federal Funds Rate Timer signals the switches from stocks to gold and vice versa near or during recession periods.
- Only three parameters are needed; the Effective Federal Funds Rate and the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields to determine the periods when the yield curve is inverted.
- The timing rules are based on the state of yield curve and on the trend of the Effective Federal Funds Rate.
This timer signals switches from stocks (S&P500 Total Return) to gold and vice versa near or during recession periods.
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In a previous article, I discussed the seasonal effect in equities and showed that they perform best from November to April, the “good” period, and that replacing equities with fixed income during the “bad” period of May thru October is a winning strategy over the longer term.
Since future returns from fixed income are uncertain, the strategy proposed here is to always invest in sector equity ETFs. I defined two super-sector groups, classified as aggressive and defensive, each with four sector ETFs which have historically performed best from November to April and relatively well from May to October, respectively.
This simple strategy invests alternately in the aggressive and defensive super sectors during their respective six-month periods, switching from aggressive to defensive at the end of April, and vice versa at the end of October.