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• The BestogaX universe of the Russell1000 consists of the so called “Vice” stocks (excluding Gaming stocks), plus the stocks from the GICS-sub-industries: Restaurants, Soft Drinks, and Internet Retail.
• A capitalization weighted index of this universe outperformed SPY by about 4.5 times from Jan-2000 to Mar-2016.
• Over down-market periods the iM-BestogaX Index lost on average 87% less than SPY, and over up-market periods gained on average 24% more than SPY.
• Many of the BestogaX companies have affordable products, familiar name brands, and worldwide distribution networks, providing them with reliable revenue growth also during adverse economic climates.
• Investors holding continuously all the BestogaX stocks, and rebalancing to equal weight every four weeks, would have had an annualized return of over 17% from January 2000 to March 2016.   

Over the backtest period, Jan-2000 to Mar-2016, the number of stocks in this universe varied from a minimum of 23 to a maximum of 32. Stocks currently in the BestogaX universe are listed in the table below, with market capitalization shown in $-millions. There are 25 large-cap companies with a market-cap greater than $5-Billion.
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The iM Standard Market Timer endeavors to signal periods when it may be advantageous to exit the market or hedge one’s portfolio of stocks.

• This combination model aims to provide reasonable returns with low drawdowns during all market conditions.
• There are six equal weight component models in Combo6, five of which are from Combo5 and the BESTOGA3 is the sixth component model.

• This combination model aims to provide reasonable returns with low drawdowns during all market conditions.
• There are six equal weight component models from Combo6, (five of which are from Combo5 and the BESTOGA3), which are then hedged 25% with the Best10(Short Russell3000), the seventh component model.

The iM Gold-Timer timer endeavors to signal long-term investment periods for Gold. It uses the SPDR® Gold Shares ETF: GLD. When not invested in GLD the model goes to 100% cash.

• This model selects periodically up to 10 stocks of the Russell 3000 index to sell short.
• Stocks having a market-cap less than $800-million and those having a 10-week average daily total amount traded of less than $6,000,000 are not sold short.
• Simulated performance over a 16 year backtest period shows an annualized return of 18.8% with a maximum drawdown of -48%.

• This combination model aims to provide good returns with low drawdowns during all market conditions.
• For the period 2000 to 2016 the backtested annualized return is 24.0% with maximum drawdown of -10.5%.
• There are five equal weight component models in Combo5.

• The energy sector is in a recession — the energy industry has filed negative earnings for four consecutive quarters.
• Negative earnings and Debt-to-EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) ratio at historic highs, and no respite in sight.
• The US government should not let this strategic industry fail and arrange a bailout program.
• According to our analysis the energy ETFs (XLE, VDE, XOP, etc) and energy stocks remain strong sells.

• Due to inconsistencies in SPEPCY (SP500 Current Year EPS Estimate) data at the beginning of the calendar year we have amended Combo3.
• Going forward we will not replicate the signals from the P123 subscription models anymore as the P123 models can only be revised every six months. We have set up new component models for Combo3.R! which incorporate rule changes.

Followers of Best(SPY-SH), Best(SSO-TLT), Combo3 and Combo3b please read this.

• The Trailing Twelve Months Income Available to Common Stocks (TTMIACS) of the S&P500 is tightly correlated to the S&P 500.
• TTMIACS has been declining since Feb-2015 when its 10-week moving average crossed its 40-week moving average to the downside.
• Exiting the stock market according to this indicator would have avoided major losses in 2001 and 2008.
• According to this indicator, a downwards potential remains in the S&P 500 with a possible low of 1660 in the next three months.

• The Vanguard Market Neutral Fund Investor Shares (VMNFX) aims to “neutralize”, or limit the effect of stock market movement on returns.
• We calculate 26-week rolling returns for VMNFX and for benchmark SPY (the ETF tracking the S&P500), which provide a measure of over- or under performance of VMNFX relative to SPY.
• Predictive information comes from the relationship between the fund and the benchmark rolling returns. If VMNFX performs better than the stock market then one should be out of the market.
• Conversely, if VMNFX under performs SPY then it should be relatively safe to be invested in stocks.
• Our analysis generated a sell signal for the stock market on Nov-2-2015.

• Based on its historic trend, the stock market appears to be marginally overvalued.
• The historic trend suggests a probable real gain of about 20% over the next five years.
• Analysts’ long-term forecasts of stock returns made 4 years ago appear to have been unrealistically low.
• The Shiller Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings Ratio is relatively high (but not extremely high), and a market correction is possible.

• This rating system identifies funds which may provide better returns than a benchmark index-fund by measuring fund performance from the perspective of savers who make regular monthly contributions to funds.
• It compares the terminal value from periodic $1.00 monthly contributions to a fund with the terminal value from the same contributions to a benchmark index-fund over the same time period.
• Specifically, the system calculates 1-year and 5-year rolling terminal values from $1.00 monthly contributions to the fund and the benchmark index-fund.
• Predictive information comes from the relationship between the fund and the benchmark rolling terminal values, allowing an estimate of future fund performance relative to the benchmark index-fund.

Portfolio123 data changes can affect more recent model performance. We monitor our models to see whether there are any negative effects from data revisions.
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A reliable source for recession forecasting is the unemployment rate, which can provide signals for the beginnings and ends of recessions. The unemployment rate model (article link), updated with the October figure of 5.0%, does not signal a recession now.
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• A warning of a major stock market decline from the death cross of the Trailing Twelve Months Income Available to Common Stocks (TTMIACS) of the S&P500
• The TTMIACS of the S&P500 has historically provided a good indication of market tops.
• TTMIACS has been declining since Feb-2015 when its 10-week moving average crossed its 40-week moving average to the downside.
• Exiting the stock market according to this indicator would have avoided major losses in 2001 and 2008.

The iM-Best(SPY-IEF) MarketTimer incorporates three market timing models which provide signals which indicate the percentage of funds to allocate to stock market investment in 25% increments, from 0% to 100%, also referred to as signal strength.

Alternatively, instead of allocating a percentage of funds to stocks and bonds, one can be fully invested in stocks or bond funds according to the signal strength, as shown in the tables below.

• This model is similar to Combo3, but replaces Best(SSO-TLT) with BESTOGA3 which invests periodically in three of the so called “Vice” stocks of the S&P500.
• It combines equal weighted the two ETF models, Best(SPY-SH) and Best1(Select SPDR), with BESTOGA3.
• We demonstrate that this combination would have produced high annualized returns of about 28% with low drawdowns of about -12%. Also over any one year period it showed a minimum return of 10.9%.
• Additionally, due to the very high liquidity of its component ETFs and stocks, this combo can support a large dollar portfolio value.
• It has five positions, holding two ETFs, one from each ETF component model, and the three stocks from BESTOGA3.

• Holding continuously the so called “Vice” stocks of the S&P500 would have been very profitable; it would have provided an average annualized return of about 20% from Jan-2000 to Oct-2015.
• The iM-BESTOGA-3, named after the first few letters of: beer, spirits, tobacco, and gambling, holds three stocks from the GICS sub-industries: Distillers & Vintners, Brewers, Tobacco, and Casinos & Gaming.
• Backtesting the model from Jan-2000 to Oct-2015 produced a simulated annualized return of about 24.3% with a maximum drawdown of only -18%, and low annual turnover of about 130%.