July 7, 2014 About two years ago evidence was presented that a major bull market may have commenced in 2009. Additionally, a statistical analysis of the historic data of the S&P Composite presented in an Aug-2012 article and Jan-2014 update thereto supported this finding. Since August 2012 the S&P500 has now gained a real 40% to the end of June 2014. So what further gains can we expect, if any?
Tagged with: 2020
Posted in 2020
August 20, 2012 In my recent articles I presented evidence in support of a possible major bull market which may have commenced in 2009. Here I show that another indicator, this time based on a statistical analysis of the historic data of the S&P, signals the same. But how high will the S&P go?
Nobody knows, and the best we can do is to use the historic data (which is from Shiller’s S&P series) to provide us with an estimate. From the real price of the S&P with dividends re-invested (S&P-real) one finds that the best fit line from January 1871 to July 2012 fits the data rather well when both are plotted on a semi-log scale. There is no reason to believe that this long-term trend of S&P-real will not continue into the future. S&P-real and the best fit line together with its prediction band is shown in figure 1.
August 14, 2012 In my article Get Ready for the Next Great Bull Market I showed that when the spread between the 50- and 200-month moving average of the S&P forms a trough, it identifies beginnings of major bull markets. Accordingly a new bull market should start at the end of this year. My further analysis, using an adjusted normalized price to earnings ratio, indicates that a major bull market has already started in 2009.
Most of us are familiar with the Shiller cyclically adjusted price to earnings ratio of the S&P. It is the real price of the S&P divided by the average of the real earnings over the preceding 10 years and is identified as P/E10 in Shiller’s S&P data series. The 10 year period seems to have been arbitrarily chosen so as to minimize the effects of business cycles. I am using P/E5 for my analysis, which is the real price of the S&P divided by the average of the real earnings over the preceding 5 years.