Economic indices, each a combination of a different set of economic data, often signal contradictory states of the economy. Not surprisingly, many prominent analysts relying on these indices have made incorrect forecasts. To aid recession forecasting, we now introduce the BCIw, an index derived from our iMarketSignals’ Business Cycle Index (BCI), calibrated in weeks to recession. Yes, you read this correctly; for example, if the BCIw has a value of 19 it indicates that there is a high probability of a recession starting in 19 weeks.
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Blog Archives
iM’s BCIw: A Weeks to Recession Indicator
iM-Best Combo3: Best(SPY-SH) + Best1(Sector SPDR) + Best(SSO-TLT)
Using our three ETF models, Best(SPY-SH), Best1(Select SPDR) and Best(SSO-TLT) equal weighted in a combination model, we demonstrate that the combo would have produced high annualized returns of 34.3% with a low drawdown of -12.9% and low volatility. Additionally, due to the very high liquidity of its component ETFs, the combo could support a huge portfolio size.
iM-Best(SSO-TLT) Switching System
This model switches between SSO (ProShares Ultra two times daily S&P500 ETF) and TLT (iShares 20 Plus Year Treasury Bond ETF) depending on market direction. Using a web-based trading simulation platform and only market timing buy and sell rules in the algorithm, then this model would have produced an average annual return of about 38% from January 2000 to end of December 2013.
iM-Best9(Russell 1000) – Large-Cap Portfolio Management System
This model invests in highly liquid large-cap stocks selected from those making up the Russell 1000 Index which represents the large-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. When adverse stock market conditions exist the model reduces the size of the stock holdings by 50% and buys the -1x leveraged ProShares Short S&P500 ETF (SH). It produced a simulated survivorship bias free average annual return of about 53% from Jan-2000 to end of Nov-2013.
The Ultimate Death Cross – One Year Later
In July 2012 Albert Edwards, the closely followed investment strategist at Société Générale, warned that the S&P 500 was “on the verge of an ultimate death cross,” foretelling imminent major losses for the stock market, with the S&P 500 possibly seeing its index halved to 666 points. The ultimate death cross occurs when the 50-month moving average of the S&P moves below the 200-month moving average, or put another way, when the difference between these moving averages – the spread – becomes less than zero.
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iM-Combo2: A Small-Cap Model in Combination with iM-Best(SPY-SH)
Using a third party small-cap model from the web-based trading simulation platform in combination with our iM-Best(SPY-SH), we demonstrate the benefits of combining this model with iM-Best(SPY-SH), these include a reduced volatility, constant positive rolling returns, and high annualized returns with low drawdowns. The model was chosen because its algorithm does not include market-timing, and also because it holds 50 stocks, has a low annual turnover, and should be able to support a relatively high total portfolio size of $3.5-million on its own.
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A Buy Signal from the Modified Coppock Indicator for the S&P 500
The latest interim buy signal from the modified Coppock indicator was generated on October 25, 2013, and this model will stay invested until September 2014, possibly longer if another buy signal appears before then.
iM-Best1(Sector SPDR) Rotation System
The iM-Best1(Sector SPDR) model periodically selects only one of the nine Select Sector SPDR® ETFs that divide the S&P500 into 9 sectors. During adverse market conditions it switches to SH, or partly to cash. This model would have produced an average annualized return of about 31.4% from January 2000 to end of September 2013.
Better Returns from World Markets with iM-Best(SPY-SH) Market Timing System
Using the investment periods determined for the US market with the iM-Best(SPY-SH) Market Timing System, we calculated performance figures for 9 major country indices. The system, if followed, would have improved returns from all markets. From January 2000 to August 2013 with market timing, the best performing index in local currency was IBOVESPA – Brazil, and in US-dollars the DAX – Germany, closely followed by Brazil.
iM-Best(SPY-SH) Market Timing System: Gains for Up and Down Markets
This binary model switches between SPY (SPDR® S&P 500® ETF) and SH (ProShares Short S&P500 ETF) depending on market direction. Using a web-based trading simulation platform, our ranking system, and specific buy and sell rules, this model would have produced an average annual return of about 29.3% from January 2000 to end of August 2013, versus 2.6% for a buy-and-hold investment of SPY over the same period.
With reference to Section 202(a)(11)(D) of the Investment Advisers Act:
We are Engineers and not Investment Advisers,
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