The Best8+ algorithm has been improved to achieve a CAGR of 60.27% to outperforming the the S&P 500 with dividends (SPY) 522 times, that is for an investment over a period from January 2, 1999 to May 31, 2013.
Blog Archives
iM-Best10(S&P 1500): A Portfolio Management System for High Returns from the S&P 1500
Trading stock selected from the pool S&P1500 using the revised survivorship bias free Best10 portfolio management system would have generated returns of 49.2% for the period January 1999 to May 2013 and without draw-down protection 45.5%; both a multiple of the 3.8% that the SPY (the ETF tracking the S&P 500) produced over the same period.
Gold: How Much Lower Will it Go?
Gold has declined substantially and many commentators believe that the price will go much lower. But will it? The chart below shows the gold price plotted on a semi-log scale from 1968 to 2013, and the year-on-year percentage change of the price expressed in standard deviation terms for a rolling 10-year sample period. What strikes one is that the recent decline is not particularly spectacular in comparison to previous declines, and that the y-o-y percentage change of the price is now minus 2.67 standard deviations (sigma) away from the mean, the lowest that it ever got.
Read more >
Seeking Beta in the Bond Market: Avoid Bonds
Nearly 2 years ago, at the end of August 2011, the BVR model signaled the beginning of a down market for bonds. Since then long bond funds have returned a total of about 6% and short bond funds about 2%, while SPY, the exchange traded fund tracking the S&P 500, gained almost 40%. The BVR model’s message remains loud and clear: Avoid long bonds.
Survivorship Bias: neither Myth nor Fact.
Since publishing our iM-Best10 portfolio management system, readers pointed out that the high returns obtained may be distorted by what is known as survivorship bias. Using an online portfolio simulation platform, we investigated the effect of survivorship bias by running simulations on various stock universes. First, the model was run using the present composition of an index series (survivorship biased simulation), then the same model was rerun using the point-in-time composition of the index series (survivorship free simulation). The results were unexpected; the iM-Best10, a quantitative stock trading model, using the S&P 1500 stock universe simulated the very high survivorship bias free CAGR of 48.10% against the survivorship biased CAGR of 42.93%.
Read more >
MAC-Australia: A Superannuation Asset Allocations System
Australian employers must pay at least 9% of workers’ annual salary into their superannuation accounts. Because the Government wants people to save for their retirement, they provide tax breaks and other incentives to help grow super savings over time. There is a wide choice of funds available, but most people seem to select, and stay, in a balanced multi-sector fund. A better way to allocate one’s savings and maximize returns is to use the signals from MAC-Australia, with buy signals triggering shifts from fixed interest investments to equity funds, and sell signals triggering shifts back to safer, interest producing bond funds. It’s that simple.
BCIp (or BCI in Off-Peak-Mode): 20 Weeks lead to Recessions
We analyze financial series based on the previous highest peak of the series in a business cycle, which we term the “off-peak-mode” of an index. Using our BCI in off-peak-mode we achieve average leads to recessions of 20 weeks. Exiting the stock market at these early signals significantly improves investment performance. Furthermore, the current level of the BCI in off-peak-mode near 100 provides confirmation that a recession is not likely to occur within the next year.
Exit Signals for the Stock Market from iM’s Business Cycle Index
There is no bell ringing when the market peaks before recessions, but indicators such as iMarketSignals’ Business Cycle Index (BCI) are useful in identifying recession starts well in advance. By exiting the stock market at the time of BCI’s recession signals, investors would still have avoided about 60% of the market declines from pre-recession peaks to inter-recession troughs on average.
iM’s Business Cycle Index replaces ECRI’s WLI
Knowing when the U.S. Economy is heading for recession is paramount for successful investment decisions. We have designed the weekly iMarketSignals Business Cycle Index (BCI) so it would have provided early reliably warnings for the past seven recessions. We achieved recessions leads averaging 11 weeks, all with similar lengths. The absence of false positives, for the analyzed time period of 1967 to 2013, enhances the quality and reliability of the recession warnings.
Silver outshines gold – A buy Signal
The Coppock for silver generated a buy signal on Friday April 12, 2013, exactly 2 years after the sell signal.The long-time average annual return from silver based on the signals from a modified Coppock indicator exceeded those from gold by a considerable margin, 19.7% for silver versus 14.9% for gold.
With reference to Section 202(a)(11)(D) of the Investment Advisers Act:
We are Engineers and not Investment Advisers,
read more ...
By the mere act of reading this page and navigating this site you acknowledge, agree to, and abide by the
Terms of Use / Disclaimer