Blog Archives

Trading the High-Yield, Low-Volatility Stocks of the S&P500 With the iM HiD-LoV-7 System

  • The system screens for S&P 500 stocks which yield significantly more than the average yield of the index and which also have a low 3-yr beta (low volatility).
  • It is shown that holding continuously all the screen-selected high-yielding, low-volatility stocks of the S&P500 would have provided an average annualized return of about 14% from Jan-2000 to Jun-2016.
  • Holding only the highest ranked seven stocks of this group and periodically rebalancing would have produced a higher annualized return of about 22% with a maximum drawdown of -34%.
  • The iM HiD-LoV-7 System shows much higher returns and less risk than the S&P 500 Low Volatility High Dividend Index.

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Franco-Nevada Better Than Gold: Evaluating Royalty Companies With iMarketSignals’ Fund Rating System

  • Royalty companies receive a stream, which is an agreed-upon amount of gold, silver, or other precious metal that a mining company is obligated to deliver in exchange for up-front cash.
  • From 2008 to 2016, Franco-Nevada produced the best returns of all royalty companies, and better returns than GLD or SPY.
  • When compared to GLD as the benchmark, the iM-Rating for FNV is A(A), indicating that the most recent one- and five-year Rolling Returns for the company were higher than for
  • Additionally, the one- and five-year rolling return graphs for FNV are sloping upwards near the end, indicating possible further excess gains over the benchmark ETFs, GLD and SPY.

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The Dynamic Linearly Detrended Enhanced Aggregate Spread: A Long Leading Recession Indicator

  • The DAGS, short for Dynamic Linearly Detrended Enhanced Aggregate Spread, is a derivative of the Enhanced Aggregate Spread (EAS) recession indicator which comes from Robert Dieli.
  • The DAGS can signal, as much as nine months ahead when a cycle peak (recession start) is likely to take place.
  • Armed with that information, investors can make appropriate plans. As of writing (May 2016), it signals, at least to the end of January 2017, a continuation of the expansion phase of this business cycle.

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A 0.3% Rise in the Unemployment Rate Will Signal an Oncoming Recession.

  • A reliable source for recession forecasting is the unemployment rate (UER), which can provide signals for the beginnings and ends of recessions.
  • Recently Gundlach warned if the UER moves up a couple of tenths in the next couple of months, “we will be on recession watch.”
  • The latest UER (March 2016) is at 5.0%, signifying that no recession is imminent. However, should the UER increase to 5.3% then a recession will be signaled.
  • Investors should carefully monitor the unemployment rate, because if it moves up a few tenths of a percent from where it is now, then high recession probabilities prevail.

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iM-BestogaX-5(SDS) System (Long Hedging Strategy)

This model is similar to our iM-BestogaX-5 System which is partially hedged by shortening SSO. But the underlying component models of the iM-BestogaX-5(SDS) System use a long SDS hedge instead of short SSO.

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The iM-BestogaX Index of the Russell1000 and related Trading Systems

  • The iM-BestogaX Index of the Russell1000 holds the so called “Vice” stocks (excluding Gaming stocks), plus the stocks from the GICS-sub-industries: Restaurants, Soft Drinks, and Internet Retail.
  • This capitalization weighted index outperformed SPY by about 4.5-times from Jan-2000 to Mar-2016.
  • Over down-market periods the iM-BestogaX Index lost on average 87% less than SPY, and over up-market periods gained on average 24% more than SPY.
  • Trading systems which periodically select a small number of highest ranked stocks from the Index produced simulated annualized return as high as 34.4% with maximum drawdowns of about -20%.

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The iM Standard Market Timer

The iM Standard Market Timer endeavors to signal periods when it may be advantageous to exit the market or hedge one’s portfolio of stocks.

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iM-Combo6: Combining 5 ETF Models with BESTOGA3 for Good Returns and Low Drawdowns

  • This combination model aims to provide reasonable returns with low drawdowns during all market conditions.
  • There are six equal weight component models in Combo6, five of which are from Combo5 and the BESTOGA3 is the sixth component model.

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iM-Combo7: Combining 5 ETF Models with BESTOGA3 and Hedging with Best10(Short Russell3000)

  • This combination model aims to provide reasonable returns with low drawdowns during all market conditions.
  • There are six equal weight component models from Combo6, (five of which are from Combo5 and the BESTOGA3), which are then hedged 25% with the Best10(Short Russell3000), the seventh component model.

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The iM Gold-Timer

The iM Gold-Timer timer endeavors to signal long-term investment periods for Gold. It uses the SPDR® Gold Shares ETF: GLD. When not invested in GLD the model goes to 100% cash.

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