A reliable source for recession forecasting is the unemployment rate, which can provide signals for the beginnings and ends of recessions. The unemployment rate model (article link), updated with the April figure of 5.4%, does not signal a recession now.
Read more >
Blog Archives
The Unemployment Rate is Not Signaling a Recession: Update May 8, 2015
There is no reason why the Fed should increase the Federal Funds Rate any time soon – Update April 2015
- The Trade Weighted US Dollar Index has been growing since Q4 2011. Its growth increasing over the last nine months.
- The annual rise in CPI is below 2%, and the US economy remains relatively weak.
- The US Market is attracting foreign capital that is fleeing their local currency devaluation.
- There is no reason for the Fed to increase interest rates under these conditions.
- Interest rates will probably rise only once the dollar reverses its gains.
The Unemployment Rate is Not Signaling a Recession: Update April 4, 2015
A reliable source for recession forecasting is the unemployment rate, which can provide signals for the beginnings and ends of recessions. The unemployment rate model (article link), updated with the March figure of 5.5%, does not signal a recession now.
Read more >
Timing the TIAA Real Estate Account
- In order to maximize returns one has to know when to enter and exit the TIAA Real Estate Account.
- Our analysis shows that a firm sell signal arises when its 1-year rolling return moves below 0%.
- A subsequent buy signal would be given when its 1-year rolling return moves from below to above 0%.
Vanguard Funds With Dynamic Asset Allocation: Three iM-Vanguard Systems
- iM-Vanguard Systems use a combination of Vanguard bond- and stock-funds, and switch assets according to stock-market climate.
- Backtests show that models using index funds produce better returns when a dynamic asset allocation strategy is employed (System1) than buy-and-hold.
- Higher returns can be obtained from actively managed Vanguard funds with dynamic asset allocation (System2 and System3). System3 uses only two stock funds and one intermediate-term bond fund.
The dynamic asset allocation strategy requires that during up-market periods more money is allocated to stock funds than bond funds, and during down-market periods more money is allocated to bond funds than stock funds.
Read more >
The Unemployment Rate is Not Signaling a Recession: Update March 6, 2015
A reliable source for recession forecasting is the unemployment rate, which can provide signals for the beginnings and ends of recessions. The unemployment rate model (article link), updated with the February figure of 5.2%, does not signal a recession now.
Read more >
iM-USMV Investor Portfolio
The iM-USMV Investor Portfolio consists of the four quarterly displaced Best12(USMV)-Investor models at iMarketSignals. The purpose of the combination model is to check whether our hypothesis – ranking the holdings of USMV, the iShares MSCI USA Minimum Volatility ETF, and selecting a portfolio of the 12 top ranked stocks, provides higher returns for the portfolio than for the underlying ETF – is supported by the actual performances of the model over longer period of time.
Read more >
iM-Best(SPY-IEF) Market Timer: A Combination of Three Market Timing Models
- Stock market timing models usually provide discreet signals indicating whether to be in or out of the market.
- A better approach with potentially less risk is to stage investments over time when entering or exiting the market.
- Three market timing models with low correlation to each other are used in combination to provide staged signals, indicating stock market investment in 25% increments from 0% to 100%.
The Unemployment Rate is Not Signaling a Recession: Update February 6, 2015
A reliable source for recession forecasting is the unemployment rate, which can provide signals for the beginnings and ends of recessions. The unemployment rate model (article link), updated with the January figure of 5.7%, does not signal a recession now.
Read more >
US Treasury Bonds: When Will the Panic Buying End?
- Currently the yield of 30-year US Treasury Bonds is at its lowest level ever.
- The bond-market rally which began at the beginning of 2014 is near its end.
- Some upside for long Treasury bonds is still possible, but not much.
With reference to Section 202(a)(11)(D) of the Investment Advisers Act:
We are Engineers and not Investment Advisers,
read more ...
By the mere act of reading this page and navigating this site you acknowledge, agree to, and abide by the
Terms of Use / Disclaimer