Knowing when the U.S. Economy is heading for recession is paramount for successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index (BCI) would have provided early reliably warnings for the past seven recessions.
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Blog Archives
No Recession Is Signaled By iM’s Business Cycle Index: Update February 18, 2016
Too Many To Fail — It Is Time To Bailout The Oil Industry!
- The energy sector is in a recession — the energy industry has filed negative earnings for four consecutive quarters.
- Negative earnings and Debt-to-EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) ratio at historic highs, and no respite in sight.
- The US government should not let this strategic industry fail and arrange a bailout program.
- According to our analysis the energy ETFs (XLE, VDE, XOP, etc) and energy stocks remain strong sells.
No Recession Is Signaled By iM’s Business Cycle Index: Update February 11, 2016
Knowing when the U.S. Economy is heading for recession is paramount for successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index (BCI) would have provided early reliably warnings for the past seven recessions.
Read more >
Questioning the Best(SPY-SH) and Best(SSO-TLT) Signals.
Followers of Best(SPY-SH), Best(SSO-TLT), Combo3 and Combo3b please read this.
How Much More Will The Market Decline? The Trailing 12-Month Income Available Could Provide An Answer.
- The Trailing Twelve Months Income Available to Common Stocks (TTMIACS) of the S&P500 is tightly correlated to the S&P 500.
- TTMIACS has been declining since Feb-2015 when its 10-week moving average crossed its 40-week moving average to the downside.
- Exiting the stock market according to this indicator would have avoided major losses in 2001 and 2008.
- According to this indicator, a downwards potential remains in the S&P 500 with a possible low of 1660 in the next three months.
With reference to Section 202(a)(11)(D) of the Investment Advisers Act:
We are Engineers and not Investment Advisers,
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