- A reliable source for recession forecasting is the unemployment rate (UER), which can provide signals for the beginnings and ends of recessions.
- The February 2020 UER is 3.5%, signifying that no recession was imminent. However, if the March 2020 UER is 3.9% then a recession will be signaled, according to the model.
- According to the Washington Post more than a million workers are expected to lose their jobs by the end of March, a dramatic turnaround from February.
- Goldman Sachs estimates that 2.25 million Americans filed for their first week of unemployment benefits in the week ending March 20.
- If the number of unemployed rises only by one million than the March UER will be 4.1%, if it rises by 2.25 million it will be 4.9%.
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The Anticipated March 2020 Unemployment Rate Will Signal A Recession
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Clarifying the Business Cycle Index No Recession Call — Update 3/19/2020
Is your investment strategy protecting your assets from the next recession? Our Business Cycle Index is a tool to help you gauge recession risk.
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Clarifying the Business Cycle Index No Recession Call — Update 3/12/2020
Is your investment strategy protecting your assets from the next recession? Our Business Cycle Index is a tool to help you gauge recession risk.
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