iM Update -March 20, 2020

Market Signals Summary:

The 3-mo Hi-Lo Index is out of the market since 3/5/2020. Forward simulations show that both the MAC US and the MAC AU will switch out of the market next week.  The bond market model avoids high beta (long) bonds, and the yield curve is steepening and signaled a buy STPP. The Gold Coppock remains in gold but the iM-Gold Timer switched to cash, also the silver model is in cash.

The iM-GT Timer, based on Google Search Trends volume switched out of the markets on 3/5/2020.

Stock-markets:

Forward projections show that the MAC-US model will switched out of the markets next week. The sell-spread (red line) is below last week’s value.

 

 

 

The 3-mo Hi-Lo Index Index of the S&P500 at -14.40% is below last week’s -4.97%, and is out of the stock market since 3/5/2020.

 

 

 

The Coppock indicator for the S&P500 entered  the market on 5/9/2019 and is invested.   This indicator is described here.

 

 

 

Forward projections show that the MAC-AU model will switch out of the markets next week. The sell-spread (red line) is below last week’s value.

This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations.

 

Recession:

 

The current level of iM-LLI is at plus 5.57 and is above last week’s 5.43, hence this indicator signals that a recession is unlikely to begin during the next 8 months. The effect of the COVID-19 pandemic is not reflected in this series.

 

Figure 3.1 shows the recession indicator iM-BCIg below last week’s level.  The effect of the COVID-19 pandemic is not reflected in this series.

Please also refer to the BCI page

 

 

The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (FRR2-10) is above last week’s level and is not signaling a recession.

A description of this indicator can be found here.

 

The iM-Low Frequency Timer is back in the markets since 1/22/2019.

A description of this indicator can be found here.