- For what is considered to be a lagging indicator of the economy, the unemployment rate provides surprisingly good signals for the beginning and end of recessions.
- This model, backtested to 1948, reliably provided recession signals.
- The model, updated with the March 2020 rate of 4.4%, does now signal a recession.
Blog Archives
The March 2020 Unemployment Rate Is Signaling A Recession
Posted in UER
Ready to Call a Recession — BCI Update 4/2/2020
Is your investment strategy protecting your assets from the next recession? Our Business Cycle Index is a tool to help you gauge recession risk.
Posted in BCI
Ready to Call a Recession — BCI Update 3/26/2020
Is your investment strategy protecting your assets from the next recession? Our Business Cycle Index is a tool to help you gauge recession risk.
Posted in BCI
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