The Previous Updates

December 6, 2018

 

Business Cycle Index

BCI-12-6-2018

The BCI at 248.2 is above last week’s 247.1, and remains below this business cycle’s peak as indicated by the BCIp at 85.7. However, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 10.5, is below last week’s 11.1.

Both BCIp and BCIg do not signaling a recession.

 

 


Posted on Dec 6, 2018 | Leave a comment

November 29, 2018

 

Business Cycle Index

BCI-11-29-2018

The BCI at 247.1 is below last week’s upward revised 248.8, and remains below this business cycle’s peak as indicated by the BCIp at 78.0. Also, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 11.1, is below last week’s 11.7.

No recession is signaled.

 

 


Posted on Nov 29, 2018 | Leave a comment


November 30, 2018

Market Signals Summary:

The MAC-US model is in cash after signaling a sell on 11/26/2018.

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The MAC-AU has signaled a sell on 11/20/2018. The recession indicators COMP and iM-BCIg do not signal a recession.

 

Stock-markets:

Fig-2.-11-30-2018The MAC-US model  is in cash after it generated a sell signal on November 26, 2018. The buy-spread (green graph) is below last week’s level needs to rise above zero to signal a buy.

 

 

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Fig-2.1-11-30-2018The MAC-AU model is in cash after it generated a sell signal on November 20, 2018. The buy-spread (green graph) is below last week’s level needs to rise above zero to signal a buy.

This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations.

 

Recession:

Fig-3.-11-30-2018Figure 3 shows the COMP down from last week’s level. No recession is indicated. COMP can be used for stock market exit timing as discussed in this article The Use of Recession Indicators in Stock Market Timing.

 

 

Fig-3.1-11-30-2018Figure 3.1 shows the recession indicator iM-BCIg below last week’s level. An imminent recession is not signaled .

Please also refer to the BCI page

 

 

Fig-3.2-11-30-2018The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (FRR2-10) is near last week’s level and is not signaling a recession. The FRR2-10 general trend is downwards.

A description of this indicator can be found here.

 

Fig-3.3-11-30-2018The iM-Low Frequency Timer is invested in the markets.

A description of this indicator can be found here.


Posted on Nov 30, 2018 | Leave a comment

Monthly Updates

November 2, 2018

Unemployment

Fig-8.-11-2-2018The unemployment rate recession model (article link), has been updated with the October UER of 3.7%. Based on the historic patterns of the unemployment rate indicators prior to recessions one can reasonably conclude that the U.S. economy is not likely to go into recession anytime soon. The growth rate UERg is at minus 10.94% (last month minus 9.51%) and EMA spread of the UER is at minus 0.24% (last month minus 0.23%).

Here is the link to the full update.

The Dynamic Linearly Detrended Enhanced Aggregate Spread:

DAGS-11-2-2018The updated level of this indicator, -184bps, above last months -198bps, confirms the January 20, 2017 signal. Based on past history a recession could have started at the earliest in October 2017, but not later than May 2019. The average lead time to previous recessions provided by DAGS was 15 months which would indicate a recession start for April 2018. (Note: All our other recession indicators are far from signal a recession.)

 

Coppock Indicator for the S&P500

Fig-9.-11-2-2018The Coppock indicator for the S&P500 entered the market end May 2017 and generated a new buy signal in mid February 2018 This model is in stocks.   This indicator is described here.

 

 

CAPE-Cycle-ID

Fig-9a-11-2-2018Fig 9a depicts the CAPE-Cycle-ID and the year-on-year rate-of-change of the Shiller CAPE.  A model using this indicator invests in the market when the Cycle-ID is +2 or 0, and when the Cycle-ID equals -2 the model is in cash. This indicator is described here.

 

 

 

iM-GT Timer

Fig-9b-11-2-2018The iM-GT Timer, based on Google Search Trends volume switched to cash on 11/1/2018.  This indicator is described here.

 

 

 

Trade Weighted USD

USD-11-2-2018 The Trade Weighted $ value continues to strengthen.

 

 

TIAA Real Estate Account

Fig-10.-11-2-2018The  1-year rolling return for the end of last month is 4.88%.   A sell signal is not imminent.

Read more …

 

 

 


Posted on Nov 2, 2018 | Leave a comment

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