A reliable source for recession forecasting is the unemployment rate, which can provide signals for the beginnings and ends of recessions. The unemployment rate model (article link), updated with the March figure, does not signal a recession now, nor does it support Economic Cycle Research Institute’s recent claim that a recession started in July 2012, nor their September 2011 recession call, nor any of their many “follow-up” recession calls since then.
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Blog Archives
Unemployment Rate Does Not Signal A Recession Now – Update
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Improving on Buy and Hold: A Modified Coppock Indicator for the S&P 500
The latest interim buy signal from my modified Coppock indicator was at the beginning of February, 2013, and this model will stay invested until the end of this year, possibly longer if another buy signal appears before then. This model would have produced a long-time average annual return from 1970 to 2013 about 4% higher than what one could have obtained from a continuous investment in the S&P; 500. The model avoided the 2000 and 2008 bear markets but did not avoid the 1987 market crash.
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February Unemployment Rate Does Not Signal A Recession Now
A reliable source for recession forecasting is the unemployment rate, which can provide signals for the beginnings and ends of recessions. The unemployment rate model (article link), updated with the February figure, does not signal a recession now, nor does it support Economic Cycle Research Institute’s recent claim that a recession started in July 2012, nor their September 2011 recession call, nor any of their many “follow-up” recession calls since then.
Read more >
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Recession Indicators: A Stock Market Exit Strategy.
Investors with long-time horizons can also do well by only exiting the stock market at beginnings of recessions and returning to the market when the market is recovering. Recession indicators such as COMP are useful in identifying recession starts.
Silver outshines gold
The long-time average annual return from silver based on the signals from a modified Coppock indicator exceeded those from gold by a considerable margin, 19.7% for silver versus 14.9% for gold.
A new model for gold
A new model produced a compounded annual return of 17.58% for the period 1970-2012, this significantly better than the original model.
With reference to Section 202(a)(11)(D) of the Investment Advisers Act:
We are Engineers and not Investment Advisers,
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