February Unemployment Rate Does Not Signal A Recession Now

A reliable source for recession forecasting is the unemployment rate, which can provide signals for the beginnings and ends of recessions. The unemployment rate model (article link), updated with the February figure, does not signal a recession now, nor does it support Economic Cycle Research Institute’s recent claim that a recession started in July 2012, nor their September 2011 recession call, nor any of their many “follow-up” recession calls since then.

Read the full article: The Unemployment Rate Is Not Signaling a Recession: Update

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2 comments on “February Unemployment Rate Does Not Signal A Recession Now
  1. knp says:

    ecri report on recession and your recession indicators what is the correlation historically is there any article i can see the comparision study

    regards thank you

  2. geovrba says:

    Do not believe ECRI’s recession signals. They have only issued 3 signals to date. Their 2001 and 2008 signals were only issued when the market had already anticipated recession and had lost over 20%; and their September 2011 recession call is a complete disaster with the market 35% higher since then.
    Our recession indicator COMP has provided good signals of oncoming recessions.

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