- The average of S&P 500 for March 2025 was 5,680, declining to 5,074 by April 4, 2025 (now 13% up from Jul-2023 average of 4,497 when forward returns for stocks “looked reasonably good” according to this analysis).
- The S&P 500 is still 1,140 points higher than the corresponding long-term trend value of 3,934 for April 2025.
- For the S&P 500 to reach the corresponding long-trend value would entail a 22% decline from the April 4, 2025 value, indicating that the S&P 500 is still considerably overvalued.
- Assuming that the current S&P 500 value remains unchanged until the end of April, then the CAPE-ratio would be 31.0, 15% higher than its 35-year moving average (MA35), currently at 26.9.
- The long-term trend indicates a forward 10-year annualized real return of 4.0%, while the CAPE-MA35 methodology derived 10-year annualized real return is better at about 6.7%.
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Stocks Are Still Overvalued Despite Recent Significant Declines, Expect Further Losses, But Modest 10-Year Forward Returns: Update April 2025
Stocks Are Overvalued Expect Only Modest 10-Year Forward Returns: Update March 2025
- The average of S&P 500 for Mar-2025 was 5,680, (26% up from Jul-2023 average of 4,497 when forward returns for stocks “looked reasonably good” according to this analysis).
- The S&P 500 is now 1,760 points higher than the corresponding long-term trend value of 3,920.
- For the S&P 500 to reach the corresponding long-trend value would entail a 31% decline from the March average value, indicating that the S&P 500 is considerably overvalued.
- The Shiller CAPE-ratio is at 34.9, 30% higher than its 35-year moving average (MA35), currently at 26.9, forecasting a 10-year annualized real return of about 5.5% derived from the CAPE-MA35 methodology.
- The long-term trend indicates a forward 10-year annualized real return of only 2.7%
The iM Seasonal Multi-Sector Investment Strategy
- The iM Seasonal Multi-Sector Investment Strategy capitalizes on a seasonality-based approach to investing, leveraging the well-known “Sell in May and Go Away” phenomenon.
- During the winter period (end of October to the end of April) the model invests in the five highest-ranked U.S. Sector ETFs equally weighted.
- Selection is based on the performance of 30 sector ETFs during the previous one- and two-year winter periods, and not by selecting arbitrarily cyclical- and defensive categories for the winter- and summer periods.
- In the summer period the model allocates funds equally between the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) and Invesco QQQ.
- By combining sector rotation and hedging mechanisms for inflationary periods, this strategy offers a systematic framework for maximizing returns and managing risks.
Stocks Are Overvalued And 10-Year Forward Returns Look Poor: Update December 2024
- The average of S&P 500 for Dec-2024 was 6,011, (34% up from Jul-2023 average of 4,497 when forward returns for stocks “looked reasonably good” according to this analysis).
- The S&P 500 is now 2,135 points higher than the corresponding long-term trend value of 3,876.
- For the S&P 500 to reach the corresponding long-trend value would entail a 35% decline from the December average value, indicating that the S&P 500 is considerably overvalued.
- The Shiller CAPE-ratio is at 37.9, 42% higher than its 35-year moving average (MA35), currently at 26.7, forecasting a 10-year annualized real return of about 4.6% derived from the CAPE-MA35 methodology.
- The long-term trend indicates a forward 10-year annualized real return of only 2.0%
Stocks Are Moderately Overvalued And 10-Year Forward Returns Look Reasonably Good: Update July 2023
- The average of S&P 500 for July-2023 was 4,497 (4% down from Dec-2021 high average of 4,675) and is 859 points higher than the corresponding long-term trend value of 3,638.
- For the S&P 500 to reach the corresponding long-trend value would entail a 20% decline from the July average value, indicating that the S&P 500 is moderately overvalued.
- The Shiller CAPE-ratio is at 30.9, 19% higher than its 35-year moving average (MA35), currently at 26.1, forecasting a 10-year annualized real return of about 6.5%.
- The long-term trend indicates a forward 10-year annualized real return of 4.4%
Stocks Are Moderately Overvalued but 10-Year Forward Returns Look Good: Update April 2023
- The average of S&P 500 for March-2023 was 3,969 (15% down from Dec-2021 average of 4,675) and is 384 points higher than the corresponding re-calibrated long-term trend value of 3,585.
- For the S&P 500 to reach the corresponding long-trend value would entail a 10% decline from the March average value, indicating that the S&P 500 is not significantly overvalued anymore.
- The Shiller CAPE-ratio is at 27.9, 8% higher than its 35-year moving average (MA35), currently at 25.9, forecasting a relatively high 10-year annualized real return of about 7.3%.
- The long-term trend indicates a forward 10-year annualized real return of 5.5%
- However, rising inflation with a falling CAPE-MA35 ratio, similar to what occurred in the period 1964-1973, implies very low or negative 10-year forward annualized real returns.
Expect Further Losses For Stocks but 10-Year Forward Returns Look Better: Update December2022
- The average of S&P 500 for Nov-2022 was 3,917 (16% down from Dec-2021 average of 4,675) and is 385 points higher than the corresponding re-calibrated long-term trend value of 3,532.
- For the S&P 500 to reach the corresponding long-trend value would entail a 10% decline from the November average value, indicating that the S&P 500 is not significantly overvalued anymore.
- The Shiller CAPE-ratio is at 28.3, 10% higher than its 35-year moving average (MA35), currently at 25.8, forecasting a relatively high 10-year annualized real return of about 7.2%.
- The long-term trend indicates a forward 10-year annualized real return of 5.5%
- However, rising inflation with a falling CAPE-MA35 ratio, similar to what occurred in the period 1964-1973, implies very low or negative 10-year forward annualized real returns.
Expect Further Losses For Stocks but 10-Year Forward Returns Look Better: Update November 2022
- The best fit line and prediction band were re-calculated from Jan-1871 to Sep-2022. This added over 10 years of data after July-2012, the end date of the previous regression analysis.
- The average of S&P 500 for Oct-2022 was 3,726 (20% down from Dec-2021 average of 4,675) and is 207 points higher than the corresponding re-calibrated long-term trend value of 3,519.
- For the S&P 500 to reach the long-trend would entail only a 6% decline from the October average value, indicating that the S&P 500 is not significantly overvalued anymore.
- The Shiller CAPE-ratio is at 27.2, only 6% higher than its 35-year moving average (MA35), currently at 25.7, forecasting a relatively high 10-year annualized real return of about 7.5%.
- However, rising inflation with a falling CAPE-MA35 ratio, similar to what occurred in the period 1964-1973, implies very low or negative 10-year forward annualized real returns.
Expect Further Losses For Stocks And Very Low 10-Year Forward Returns: Update September 2022
- The average of S&P 500 for September 2022 was 3,853 (18% down from December 2021 average of 4,675) and is still 1,243 points higher than the corresponding long-term trend value of 2,610.
- For the S&P 500 to reach the long-trend would entail a 32% decline from the September average value, possibly over a short period.
- The Shiller CAPE-ratio is at a level of 28.4. That is 10% higher than its 35-year moving average (MA35), currently at 25.7.
- The CAPE-MA35 ratio is at 1.10 (down from the December 2021 level of 1.51), forecasting a relatively high 10-year annualized real return of about 7.1%.
- However, rising inflation with a falling CAPE-MA35 ratio, similar to what occurred in the period 1964-1973, implies very low or negative 10-year forward annualized real returns.
- The historic long-term trend indicates a September 2032 value of 4,943; a 10-year forward real annualized return of only 2.5% (up from the December 2021 forecast of 0.2%).
Expect Further Losses For Stocks And Very Low 10-Year Forward Returns: Update July 2022
- The average of S&P 500 for May 2022 was 4,040 (14% down from December 2021 average) and is still 1,469 points higher than the corresponding long-term trend value of 2,571.
- For the S&P 500 to reach the long-trend would entail a 36% decline from the May average value, possibly over a short period.
- The Shiller CAPE-ratio is at a level of 31.0. That is 21% higher than its 35-year moving average (MA35), currently at 25.6.
- The CAPE-MA35 ratio is at 1.21 (down from the December 2021 level of 1.51), forecasting a 10-year annualized real return of about 6.3%.
- However, rising inflation with a falling CAPE-MA35 ratio, similar to what occurred in the period 1964-1973, implies very low or negative 10-year forward annualized real returns.
- The historic long-term trend indicates a 10-year forward real annualized return of only 1.9% (up from the December 2021 forecast of 0.2%).
With reference to Section 202(a)(11)(D) of the Investment Advisers Act:
We are Engineers and not Investment Advisers,
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