Blog Archives
BCI January 30, 2020
Posted in pmp BCI
Robust Recession Forecasting With The FED’s Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes ─ Update February 4, 2020
- The new Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes ( BBK ) provide useful input for recession forecasting.
- In the past, low estimates of BBK GDP growth related to the respective recessions, this allow the extraction of a recession warning signal from this growth series.
- We combine two BBK indexes with the Conference Board LEI and iMarketSignals’ Business Cycle Index BCIg to derive our Long Leading Index (iM-LLI) for the US economy.
- Currently neither index signals a recession warning.
No Sight of Next Recession: Business Cycle Index Update 1/30/2020
Is your investment strategy protecting your assets from the next recession? Our Business Cycle Index is a tool to help you gauge recession risk.
Posted in BCI
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