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April 28,  2024

iM-Best Holdings

	Out of sample performance summary of our models for the past 1, 2, 4 and 13 week periods. The active active return indicates how the models over- or underperformed the benchmark ETF SPY. Also the YTD, and the 1-, 3-, 5- and 10-year annualized returns are shown in the second table
	iM-Inflation Attuned Multi-Model Market Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -3.8%, and for the last 12 months is -2.9%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 5.5% and 23.0% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Inflation Attuned Multi-Model Market Timer gained -1.97% at a time when SPY gained -0.94%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 3/24/2017 would have grown to $127,591,373 which includes $1,826,494 cash and excludes $2,951,234 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Conference Board LEIg Timer: The model’s performance YTD is 14.3%, and for the last 12 months is 7.3%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 20.1% and 9.4% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Conference Board LEIg Timer gained 1.17% at a time when SPY gained -0.94%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 4/5/2017 would have grown to $542,858 which includes $3,462 cash and excludes $763 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-FlipSaver 60:40 | 20:80 – 2017: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 2.0%, and for the last 12 months is 8.0%. Over the same period the benchmark E60B40 performance was 2.1% and 13.2% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-FlipSaver 80:20 | 20:80 gained 0.14% at a time when SPY gained -0.51%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 7/16/2015 would have grown to $157,964 which includes $258 cash and excludes $3,876 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-FlipSaver 70:30 | 20:80 – 2017: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 2.7%, and for the last 12 months is 9.3%. Over the same period the benchmark E60B40 performance was 2.1% and 13.2% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-FlipSaver 70:30 | 20:80 gained 0.14% at a time when SPY gained -0.51%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 7/15/2015 would have grown to $164,585 which includes $188 cash and excludes $4,076 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-FlipSaver 80:20 | 20:80 – 2017: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 3.3%, and for the last 12 months is 10.7%. Over the same period the benchmark E60B40 performance was 2.1% and 13.2% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-FlipSaver 80:20 | 20:80 gained 0.14% at a time when SPY gained -0.51%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/2/2017 would have grown to $171,157 which includes $296 cash and excludes $4,268 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-5HedgeFundSelect: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 518.04% while the benchmark SPY gained 183.11% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-5HedgeFundSelect gained -1.15% at a time when SPY gained -0.94%. A starting capital of $25,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $154,510 which includes $3,242 cash and excludes $2,289 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-10LargeHedgeFundSelect: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 364.91% while the benchmark SPY gained 183.11% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-10LargeHedgeFundSelect gained -3.28% at a time when SPY gained -0.94%. A starting capital of $25,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $116,227 which includes $124 cash and excludes $1,464 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(QQQ)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 864.78% while the benchmark SPY gained 183.11% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(QQQ)Select gained -3.15% at a time when SPY gained -0.94%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $964,784 which includes $2,784 cash and excludes $11,552 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLB)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 194.39% while the benchmark SPY gained 183.11% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLB)Select gained -0.29% at a time when SPY gained -0.94%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $294,385 which includes -$3,070 cash and excludes $12,756 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLI)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 384.95% while the benchmark SPY gained 183.11% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLI)Select gained -1.80% at a time when SPY gained -0.94%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $484,951 which includes $1,696 cash and excludes $6,567 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLK)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 591.56% while the benchmark SPY gained 183.11% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLK)Select gained -2.20% at a time when SPY gained -0.94%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $691,564 which includes $2,989 cash and excludes $2,149 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLP)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 211.00% while the benchmark SPY gained 183.11% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLP)Select gained 1.60% at a time when SPY gained -0.94%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $311,004 which includes $3,426 cash and excludes $2,179 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLV)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 315.59% while the benchmark SPY gained 183.11% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLV)Select gained -1.55% at a time when SPY gained -0.94%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $415,592 which includes $1,079 cash and excludes $12,662 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLU)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 138.09% while the benchmark SPY gained 183.11% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLU)Select gained 4.00% at a time when SPY gained -0.94%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $238,091 which includes $2,523 cash and excludes $13,442 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLY)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 270.21% while the benchmark SPY gained 183.11% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLY)Select gained 0.06% at a time when SPY gained -0.94%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $370,209 which includes -$371 cash and excludes $6,346 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Seasonal Super-Sectors (Top5 combo) : Since inception, on 11/17/2020, the model gained 55.86% while the benchmark SPY gained 46.96% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Seasonal Super-Sectors (Top5 combo) gained -0.74% at a time when SPY gained -0.94%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 11/17/2020 would have grown to $155,863 which includes $2,908 cash and excludes $00 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Dividend Growth Portfolio: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 4.5%, and for the last 12 months is 17.9%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 5.5% and 23.0% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Dividend Growth Portfolio gained -0.59% at a time when SPY gained -0.94%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $458,924 which includes $2,863 cash and excludes $11,270 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Gold Momentum Timer (AU, NEM, SBSW): The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -8.9%, and for the last 12 months is -29.8%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 5.5% and 23.0% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Gold Momentum Timer (AU, NEM, SBSW) gained -2.55% at a time when SPY gained -0.94%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $02 which includes $129,703 cash and excludes Gain to date spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-ModSum/YieldCurve Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 7.1%, and for the last 12 months is 10.6%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 5.5% and 23.0% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-PortSum/YieldCurve Timer gained 0.03% at a time when SPY gained -0.94%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/1/2016 would have grown to $287,331 which includes $1,805 cash and excludes $1,547 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Best(SPY-SH).R1: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 5.5%, and for the last 12 months is -3.4%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 5.5% and 23.0% respectively.. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/2/2009 would have grown to $60,815 which includes -$151 cash and excludes $2,553 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Combo3.R1: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 0.9%, and for the last 12 months is 1.9%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 5.5% and 23.0% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Combo3.R1 gained -1.52% at a time when SPY gained -0.94%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 2/3/2014 would have grown to $184,292 which includes $2,267 cash and excludes $8,234 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Best10(VDIGX)-Trader: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 4.1%, and for the last 12 months is 12.6%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 5.5% and 23.0% respectively. Since inception, on 7/1/2014, the model gained 225.96% while the benchmark SPY gained 203.91% and VDIGX gained 151.24% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Best10(VDIGX) gained 1.37% at a time when SPY gained -0.94%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 7/1/2014 would have grown to $325,958 which includes $799 cash and excludes $4,868 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM 6-Stock Capital Strength Portfolio: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 3.5%, and for the last 12 months is 13.5%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 5.5% and 23.0% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM 6-Stock Capital Strength Portfolio gained 2.00% at a time when SPY gained -0.94%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 10/28/2016 would have grown to $265,117 which includes $45,145 cash and excludes $3,173 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Best12(USMV)-Trader: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 0.8%, and for the last 12 months is 7.5%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 5.5% and 23.0% respectively. Since inception, on 6/30/2014, the model gained 192.26% while the benchmark SPY gained 203.91% and the ETF USMV gained 161.47% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Best12(USMV)-Trader gained 0.34% at a time when SPY gained -0.94%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2014 would have grown to $292,261 which includes $722 cash and excludes $8,054 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Min Volatility(USMV) Investor (Tax Efficient): The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 7.7%, and for the last 12 months is 29.1%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 5.5% and 23.0% respectively. Since inception, on 1/3/2013, the model gained 818.86% while the benchmark SPY gained 319.52% and the ETF USMV gained 319.52% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Best12(USMV)Q1 gained 0.23% at a time when SPY gained -0.94%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/3/2013 would have grown to $918,865 which includes $1,497 cash and excludes $10,283 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Bond Market Trader (High-Yield Bond or 10-yr Treasury Bond): The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -2.3%, and for the last 12 months is -2.5%. Over the same period the benchmark BND performance was -2.9% and -0.4% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Bond Market Trader (High-Yield Bond or 10-yr Treasury Bond) gained 0.03% at a time when BND gained 0.12%. A starting capital of $10,000 at inception on 1/3/2000 would have grown to $134,120 which includes $532 cash and excludes $2,613 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-ModSum/YieldCurve Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 7.1%, and for the last 12 months is 10.6%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 5.5% and 23.0% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-PortSum/YieldCurve Timer gained 0.03% at a time when SPY gained -0.94%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/1/2016 would have grown to $287,331 which includes $1,805 cash and excludes $1,547 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Best2 MC-Score ETF System: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 4.5%, and for the last 12 months is 6.6%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 5.5% and 23.0% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Best2 MC-Score ETF System gained 1.85% at a time when SPY gained -0.94%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $157,724 which includes $158 cash and excludes $4,614 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Best4 MC-Score Vanguard System: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -1.0%, and for the last 12 months is 3.9%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 5.5% and 23.0% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Best4 MC-Score Vanguard System gained 1.04% at a time when SPY gained -0.94%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $160,579 which includes $574 cash and excludes $00 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Composite (SPY-IEF) Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 3.7%, and for the last 12 months is 8.6%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 5.5% and 23.0% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Composite (SPY-IEF) Timer gained 0.03% at a time when SPY gained -0.94%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $195,641 which includes $489 cash and excludes $6,532 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Composite(Gold-Stocks-Bond) Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 12.8%, and for the last 12 months is 17.1%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 5.5% and 23.0% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Composite(Gold-Stocks-Bond) Timer gained -2.42% at a time when SPY gained -0.94%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $219,382 which includes $36 cash and excludes $9,190 spent on fees and slippage.

 

iM-Business Cycle Index

   BCIw is not signaling a recession, nor does the BCIg.

 

 

Stock-markets:

 

Recession:

 

Bond-market:

The Yield Curve:

 

 

 

Silver:

 iM-Best Systems Performance (R2G and others)

Performance comparison of the iM-Best  models hosted on P123 and on iMarketSignals.

 

 

iM-FlipSavers

Performance graphs for iM-FlipSavers

 

 

 

iM-SuperTimer

Performance graphs for iM-3mo-SuperTimer(SPY-IEF)

 

 

 

Performance graphs for iM-1mo-SuperTimer(SPY-IEF)

 

 

 

Performance graphs for iM-1wk-SuperTimer(SPY-IEF)

 

 

 

Unemployment

The 4/5/2024 BLS Employment Situation Report shows that the March 2024 unemployment rate of  3.8% down 0.1% from last month. Our UER model does not signal a recession.

 

CAPE-Cycle-ID

Fig 9a depicts the CAPE-Cycle-ID and the year-on-year rate-of-change of the Shiller CAPE;  the level switched from -2 to 0 end of June 2023 generating a buy  signal. This indicator now invested in the markets. This indicator is described here.

To avoid the bear market, exit stocks when the spread between the 5-month and 25-month moving averages of S&P-real becomes negative and simultaneously the CAPE-Cycle-ID score is 0 or -2. (read more)

 

Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns

The estimated forward 10‐year annualized real return is 5.6% (previous month 5.8%) with a 95% confidence interval 4.2% to 7.0% (4.4% to 7.2% ). Also refer to the  Realized Forward 10-Year Returns vs. Inflation Rate We may be in a rising inflation period with a falling CAPE-MA35 ratio similar to 1964-1973. This implies very low or negative 10 year forward annualized real returns, much lower than the returns indicated by regression analysis shown in the Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns.

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iM-GT Timer

The iM-GT Timer, based on Google Search Trends volume indicator entered the stock markets beginning September 2023. This indicator is described here.

 

 

Trade Weighted USD

Will be updated later, the weekly FRED data series we used was discontinued and replacement series is daily and runs from 2015. We need to adapt our software and graphics first.

 

 

 

TIAA Real Estate Account