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iM-feesWe offer three categories of membership – bronze, silver and gold at $20, $40 and $80 per month respectively, or discounted on a per year basis. The table to the left (just click on it) lists what you can access depending on the membership level you choose. All information not listed will remain free, however selected key articles could in future be restricted to a paid membership category.

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Friday’s Weekly Update
Thursday’s Business Cycle Index

Most Recent Updates

Model Performance Tables: Sep 17, 2019

Business Cycle Index: Sep 19, 2019

Weekly Macro Signals: Sep 20, 2019

iM System Performance Sep 6, 2019

Monthly Update: Sep 6, 2019

 

September 15, 2019

iM-Best Holdings

Your Membership category does not entitle you to view any of the iM-Best model holdings

September 17, 2019

Performance-wk-9-17-2019 Performance-mth-9-17-2019 Out of sample performance summary of our models for the past 1, 2, 4 and 13 week periods. The active active return indicates how the models over- or underperformed the benchmark ETF SPY. Also the YTD, and the 1-, 3-, 5- and 10-year annualized returns are shown in the second table
iM-FlipSaver 60:40 | 20:80 – 2017: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 9.1%, and for the last 12 months is 1.3%. Over the same period the benchmark E60B40 performance was 15.8% and 7.2% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-FlipSaver 80:20 | 20:80 gained -0.80% at a time when SPY gained -0.03%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 7/16/2015 would have grown to $122,075 which includes -$468 cash and excludes $1,032 spent on fees and slippage.
iM-FlipSaver 70:30 | 20:80 – 2017: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 8.9%, and for the last 12 months is 0.3%. Over the same period the benchmark E60B40 performance was 15.8% and 7.2% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-FlipSaver 70:30 | 20:80 gained -0.80% at a time when SPY gained -0.03%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 7/15/2015 would have grown to $124,063 which includes -$782 cash and excludes $1,158 spent on fees and slippage.
iM-FlipSaver 80:20 | 20:80 – 2017: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 8.7%, and for the last 12 months is -0.6%. Over the same period the benchmark E60B40 performance was 15.8% and 7.2% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-FlipSaver 80:20 | 20:80 gained -0.80% at a time when SPY gained -0.03%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/2/2017 would have grown to $126,026 which includes -$982 cash and excludes $1,277 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireSilver
iM-Best(SPY-SH).R1: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 8.8%, and for the last 12 months is 5.8%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 21.2% and 5.2% respectively.. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/2/2009 would have grown to $654,378 which includes -$8,075 cash and excludes $22,629 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireSilver
iM-Combo3.R1: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 10.8%, and for the last 12 months is -1.3%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 21.2% and 5.2% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Combo3.R1 gained 0.87% at a time when SPY gained 0.66%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 2/3/2014 would have grown to $171,872 which includes $8,087 cash and excludes $5,402 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold
iM-Combo5: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 14.2%, and for the last 12 months is 0.8%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 21.2% and 5.2% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Combo5 gained 0.26% at a time when SPY gained 0.66%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 2/22/2016 would have grown to $145,398 which includes $1,079 cash and excludes $0 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireSilver8-1.VDIGXtrade-9-17-2019
iM-Best10(VDIGX)-Trader: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 20.9%, and for the last 12 months is 12.9%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 21.2% and 5.2% respectively. Since inception, on 7/1/2014, the model gained 121.83% while the benchmark SPY gained 69.26% and VDIGX gained 75.47% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Best10(VDIGX) gained 0.14% at a time when SPY gained 0.66%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 7/1/2014 would have grown to $221,829 which includes $440 cash and excludes $2,651 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold
iM-Best7(HiD-LoV): The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 14.3%, and for the last 12 months is 3.5%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 21.2% and 5.2% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Best7(HiD-LoV) gained 0.70% at a time when SPY gained 0.66%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $124,964 which includes $36,950 cash and excludes $3,342 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold
iM 6-Stock Capital Strength Portfolio: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 5.9%, and for the last 12 months is -3.8%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 21.2% and 5.2% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM 6-Stock Capital Strength Portfolio gained 0.73% at a time when SPY gained 0.66%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 10/28/2016 would have grown to $159,521 which includes $1,811 cash and excludes $1,037 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold7-1.USMVtrade-9-17-2019
iM-Best12(USMV)-Trader: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 22.1%, and for the last 12 months is 3.5%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 21.2% and 5.2% respectively. Since inception, on 6/30/2014, the model gained 109.35% while the benchmark SPY gained 69.26% and the ETF USMV gained 89.40% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Best12(USMV)-Trader gained -0.62% at a time when SPY gained 0.66%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2014 would have grown to $209,351 which includes $1,887 cash and excludes $5,768 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold13-1.MinVolUSMVInv-9-17-2019
iM Min Volatility (USMV) Investor: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 24.9%, and for the last 12 months is 12.4%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 21.2% and 5.2% respectively. Since inception, on 1/3/2013, the model gained 259.11% while the benchmark SPY gained 133.65% and the ETF USMV gained 145.89% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM Min Volatility (USMV) Investor gained -0.07% at a time when SPY gained 0.66%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/3/2013 would have grown to $359,108 which includes $1,669 cash and excludes $2,152 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold
iM-Best(Short): The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -6.8%, and for the last 12 months is -3.2%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 21.2% and 5.2% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Best(Short) gained 0.00% at a time when SPY gained 0.66%. Over the period 1/2/2009 to 9/16/2019 the starting capital of $100,000 would have grown to $82,987 which includes $82,987 cash and excludes $26,242 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireSilver
iM-Best2 MC-Score ETF System: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 13.1%, and for the last 12 months is 3.2%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 21.2% and 5.2% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Best2 MC-Score ETF System gained -1.04% at a time when SPY gained 0.66%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $119,930 which includes $73 cash and excludes $673 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireSilver
iM-Best4 MC-Score Vanguard System: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 16.2%, and for the last 12 months is 10.5%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 21.2% and 5.2% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Best4 MC-Score Vanguard System gained 0.26% at a time when SPY gained 0.66%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $125,534 which includes $1,194 cash and excludes $00 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold
iM-Composite (SH-RSP) Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 20.4%, and for the last 12 months is 3.6%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 21.2% and 5.2% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Composite (SH-RSP) Timer gained 1.38% at a time when SPY gained 0.66%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $144,596 which includes $5,737 cash and excludes $513 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold
iM-Composite (SPY-IEF) Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 7.0%, and for the last 12 months is 3.2%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 21.2% and 5.2% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Composite (SPY-IEF) Timer gained -1.79% at a time when SPY gained 0.66%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $151,059 which includes $1,280 cash and excludes $3,393 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold
iM-VIX Timer with ZIV: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -9.2%, and for the last 12 months is -31.1%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 21.2% and 5.2% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-VIX Timer with ZIV gained -1.50% at a time when SPY gained 0.66%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $164,235 which includes $95 cash and excludes $7,103 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold
iM-Composite(Gold-Stocks-Bond) Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 12.2%, and for the last 12 months is 4.5%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 21.2% and 5.2% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Composite(Gold-Stocks-Bond) Timer gained -1.37% at a time when SPY gained 0.66%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $123,128 which includes $187 cash and excludes $3,264 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold
iM-Low Turnover Composite Timer Combo: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 11.5%, and for the last 12 months is 2.1%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 21.2% and 5.2% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Low Turnover Composite Timer Combo gained -0.31% at a time when SPY gained 0.66%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 3/24/27 would have grown to $107,418 which includes -$786 cash and excludes $1,178 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold
iM-Min Drawdown Combo: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 14.6%, and for the last 12 months is 4.7%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 21.2% and 5.2% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Min Drawdown Combo gained 0.20% at a time when SPY gained 0.66%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 4/5/2017 would have grown to $116,863 which includes $12,849 cash and excludes $1,322 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold
iM-5ETF Trader (includes leveraged ETFs): The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 5.8%, and for the last 12 months is -23.7%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 21.2% and 5.2% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-5ETF Trader (includes leveraged ETFs) gained -0.63% at a time when SPY gained 0.66%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 10/30/2016 would have grown to $146,569 which includes $603 cash and excludes $3,510 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold
iM-Standard 5ETF Trader (excludes leveraged ETFs): The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 7.9%, and for the last 12 months is -7.2%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 21.2% and 5.2% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Standard 5ETF Trader (excludes leveraged ETFs) gained -0.60% at a time when SPY gained 0.66%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 10/30/2016 would have grown to $126,584 which includes $319 cash and excludes $3,228 spent on fees and slippage.



September 19, 2019

 

Business Cycle Index

BCI-9-19-2019 The BCI at 257.3is up from last week’s downward revised 257.0, and remains below the previous high of this business cycle indicated by the BCIp of 91.9.   However, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 9.9 is below last week’s 10.2.

Both BCIp and BCIg are not signaling a recession.

 

 

 



September 20, 2019

Market Signals Summary:

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Stock-markets:

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To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 10-18-2019 16:00 (New York), or please login or register
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Recession:

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September 20, 2019

Bond-market:

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The Yield Curve:

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Silver:

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iM Sytems, Performance Reports

September 6, 2019

iM-Best Systems Performance (R2G and others)

Performance-mth-9-6-2019Performance comparison of the iM-Best  models hosted on P123 and on iMarketSignals. Links to the description and to the models can be found  here

 

 

iM-FlipSavers

Fig-fs.-9-6-2019 Performance graphs for iM-FlipSavers

 

 

 

iM-SuperTimer

im3mo-st-9-6-2019 Performance graphs for iM-3mo-SuperTimer(SPY-IEF)

 

 

 

im1mo-st-9-6-2019 Performance graphs for iM-1mo-SuperTimer(SPY-IEF)

 

 

 

im1wk-st-9-6-2019 Performance graphs for iM-1wk-SuperTimer(SPY-IEF)

 

 

 



Monthly Updates

September 6, 2019

Unemployment

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The Dynamic Linearly Detrended Enhanced Aggregate Spread:

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CAPE-Cycle-ID

Fig-9a-9-6-2019Fig 9a depicts the CAPE-Cycle-ID and the year-on-year rate-of-change of the Shiller CAPE; the level moved from +2 to +0 end of May-2019. This indicator is described here.

To avoid the bear market, exit stocks when the spread between the 5-month and 25-month moving averages of S&P-real becomes negative and simultaneously the CAPE-Cycle-ID score is 0 or -2. (read more)

 

Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns

Fig-9b-9-6-2019The estimated forward 10‐year annualized real return increased from  5.9% to 6.4% with a 95% confidence interval : 5.1% to 7.8 (previous 4.5% to 7.3%).

 

 

iM-GT Timer

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Trade Weighted USD

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TIAA Real Estate Account

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