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iM-feesWe offer three categories of membership – bronze, silver and gold at $20, $40 and $80 per month respectively, or discounted on a per year basis. The table to the left (just click on it) lists what you can access depending on the membership level you choose. All information not listed will remain free, however selected key articles could in future be restricted to a paid membership category.

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Friday’s Weekly Update
Thursday’s Business Cycle Index

Most Recent Updates

 

August 2, 2020

iM-Best Holdings

Your Membership category does not entitle you to view any of the iM-Best model holdings

August 4, 2020

Performance-wk-8-4-2020 Performance-mth-8-4-2020 Out of sample performance summary of our models for the past 1, 2, 4 and 13 week periods. The active active return indicates how the models over- or underperformed the benchmark ETF SPY. Also the YTD, and the 1-, 3-, 5- and 10-year annualized returns are shown in the second table
iM-FlipSaver 60:40 | 20:80 – 2017: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -2.7%, and for the last 12 months is 2.5%. Over the same period the benchmark E60B40 performance was 6.3% and 13.7% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-FlipSaver 80:20 | 20:80 gained 0.58% at a time when SPY gained 1.18%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 7/16/2015 would have grown to $125,922 which includes -$3,057 cash and excludes $1,528 spent on fees and slippage.
iM-FlipSaver 70:30 | 20:80 – 2017: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -4.6%, and for the last 12 months is 1.1%. Over the same period the benchmark E60B40 performance was 6.3% and 13.7% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-FlipSaver 70:30 | 20:80 gained 0.59% at a time when SPY gained 1.18%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 7/15/2015 would have grown to $126,535 which includes -$3,904 cash and excludes $1,661 spent on fees and slippage.
iM-FlipSaver 80:20 | 20:80 – 2017: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -6.4%, and for the last 12 months is -0.3%. Over the same period the benchmark E60B40 performance was 6.3% and 13.7% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-FlipSaver 80:20 | 20:80 gained 0.59% at a time when SPY gained 1.18%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/2/2017 would have grown to $127,068 which includes -$4,707 cash and excludes $1,786 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold18-1.5HedgeFundSelect-8-4-2020
iM-5HedgeFundSelect: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 328.88% while the benchmark SPY gained 76.17% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-5HedgeFundSelect gained 0.59% at a time when SPY gained 1.72%. A starting capital of $25,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $107,220 which includes $1,124 cash and excludes $974 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireSilver
iM-Best(SPY-SH).R1: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -18.5%, and for the last 12 months is -9.4%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 3.2% and 14.6% respectively.. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/2/2009 would have grown to $577,681 which includes -$29,265 cash and excludes $25,091 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireSilver
iM-Combo3.R1: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -15.4%, and for the last 12 months is -7.7%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 3.2% and 14.6% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Combo3.R1 gained 1.17% at a time when SPY gained 1.72%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 2/3/2014 would have grown to $149,873 which includes -$1,066 cash and excludes $6,460 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold
iM-Combo5: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -2.7%, and for the last 12 months is 7.5%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 3.2% and 14.6% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Combo5 gained 2.46% at a time when SPY gained 1.72%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 2/22/2016 would have grown to $149,968 which includes $698 cash and excludes $0 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireSilver8-1.VDIGXtrade-8-4-2020
iM-Best10(VDIGX)-Trader: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 0.5%, and for the last 12 months is 13.6%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 3.2% and 14.6% respectively. Since inception, on 7/1/2014, the model gained 146.02% while the benchmark SPY gained 89.11% and VDIGX gained 80.70% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Best10(VDIGX) gained -0.03% at a time when SPY gained 1.72%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 7/1/2014 would have grown to $246,025 which includes $478 cash and excludes $3,626 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold
iM 6-Stock Capital Strength Portfolio: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -7.2%, and for the last 12 months is 3.1%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 3.2% and 14.6% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM 6-Stock Capital Strength Portfolio gained 3.12% at a time when SPY gained 1.72%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 10/28/2016 would have grown to $164,860 which includes $914 cash and excludes $1,396 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold7-1.USMVtrade-8-4-2020
iM-Best12(USMV)-Trader: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -9.5%, and for the last 12 months is -0.3%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 3.2% and 14.6% respectively. Since inception, on 6/30/2014, the model gained 112.56% while the benchmark SPY gained 89.11% and the ETF USMV gained 92.64% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Best12(USMV)-Trader gained 1.18% at a time when SPY gained 1.72%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2014 would have grown to $212,557 which includes $857 cash and excludes $7,084 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold13-1.MinVolUSMVInv-8-4-2020
iM-Min Volatility(USMV) Investor (Tax Efficient): The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 2.0%, and for the last 12 months is 4.7%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 3.2% and 14.6% respectively. Since inception, on 1/3/2013, the model gained 271.52% while the benchmark SPY gained 161.05% and the ETF USMV gained 150.28% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Best12(USMV)Q1 gained 1.11% at a time when SPY gained 1.72%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/3/2013 would have grown to $371,515 which includes $961 cash and excludes $3,481 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold
iM-Bond Market Trader (High-Yield Bond or 10-yr Treasury Bond): The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -34.9%, and for the last 12 months is -32.7%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 3.2% and 14.6% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Bond Market Trader (High-Yield Bond or 10-yr Treasury Bond) gained 0.72% at a time when BND gained 0.36%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 10/30/2016 would have grown to $142,109 which includes $1,148 cash and excludes $2,087 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold
iM-Best(Short): The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -6.3%, and for the last 12 months is -6.7%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 3.2% and 14.6% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Best(Short) gained 0.90% at a time when SPY gained 1.72%. Over the period 1/2/2009 to 8/3/2020 the starting capital of $100,000 would have grown to $75,353 which includes $120,789 cash and excludes $28,205 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireSilver
iM-Best2 MC-Score ETF System: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -2.3%, and for the last 12 months is 4.4%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 3.2% and 14.6% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Best2 MC-Score ETF System gained 1.28% at a time when SPY gained 1.72%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $122,882 which includes $298 cash and excludes $1,137 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireSilver
iM-Best4 MC-Score Vanguard System: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -6.4%, and for the last 12 months is 0.2%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 3.2% and 14.6% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Best4 MC-Score Vanguard System gained -0.15% at a time when SPY gained 1.72%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $121,468 which includes $547 cash and excludes $00 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold
iM-Composite (SH-RSP) Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -20.0%, and for the last 12 months is -12.6%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 3.2% and 14.6% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Composite (SH-RSP) Timer gained 0.41% at a time when SPY gained 1.72%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $122,720 which includes $3,624 cash and excludes $932 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold
iM-Composite (SPY-IEF) Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -13.0%, and for the last 12 months is -9.0%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 3.2% and 14.6% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Composite (SPY-IEF) Timer gained 0.52% at a time when SPY gained 1.72%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $142,055 which includes -$11,613 cash and excludes $3,692 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold
iM-Composite(Gold-Stocks-Bond) Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 13.9%, and for the last 12 months is 16.5%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 3.2% and 14.6% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Composite(Gold-Stocks-Bond) Timer gained 0.77% at a time when SPY gained 1.72%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $148,307 which includes $9,148 cash and excludes $4,898 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold
iM-Low Turnover Composite Timer Combo: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -9.6%, and for the last 12 months is -4.9%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 3.2% and 14.6% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Low Turnover Composite Timer Combo gained 0.42% at a time when SPY gained 1.72%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 3/24/27 would have grown to $101,828 which includes $24,462 cash and excludes $1,949 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold
iM-5ETF Trader (includes leveraged ETFs): The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -34.9%, and for the last 12 months is -32.7%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 3.2% and 14.6% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-5ETF Trader (includes leveraged ETFs) gained 3.18% at a time when SPY gained 1.72%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 10/30/2016 would have grown to $102,499 which includes $1,642 cash and excludes $4,333 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold
iM-Standard 5ETF Trader (excludes leveraged ETFs): The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -20.9%, and for the last 12 months is -16.4%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 3.2% and 14.6% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Standard 5ETF Trader (excludes leveraged ETFs) gained 2.36% at a time when SPY gained 1.72%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 10/30/2016 would have grown to $107,408 which includes $993 cash and excludes $3,982 spent on fees and slippage.



August 7, 2020

 

iM-Weekly Unemployment Monitor

WCEM-Fig-1-8-7-2020 There is no improvement in the employment situation, hence no easing of the Covid-19 recession can be identified.

Please refer The iM-Weekly Unemployment Monitor

 

 



August 7, 2020

Stock-markets:

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To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 09-04-2020 16:00 (New York), or please login or register
To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 08-10-2020 16:00 (New York), or please login or register

 

Recession:

 

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August 7, 2020

Bond-market:

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The Yield Curve:

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Silver:

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iM Sytems, Performance Reports

August 8, 2020

iM-Best Systems Performance (R2G and others)

Performance-mth-8-8-2020Performance comparison of the iM-Best  models hosted on P123 and on iMarketSignals.

 

 

iM-FlipSavers

Fig-fs.-8-8-2020 Performance graphs for iM-FlipSavers

 

 

 

iM-SuperTimer

im3mo-st-8-8-2020 Performance graphs for iM-3mo-SuperTimer(SPY-IEF)

 

 

 

im1mo-st-8-8-2020 Performance graphs for iM-1mo-SuperTimer(SPY-IEF)

 

 

 

im1wk-st-8-8-2020 Performance graphs for iM-1wk-SuperTimer(SPY-IEF)

 

 

 



Monthly Updates

August 7, 2020

Unemployment

The 8/7/2020 employment report claims 10.2% UER (last month 11.1%) and a total labor force 159,870,000 for mid-June 2020. However, the 8/6/2020 unemployment insurance report shows 31,308,678 persons claiming UI benefits week ending June 20.  Thus 31.3/159.87 = 19.5% (last month 19.7%) UER calculated from the unemployment insurance claims for exactly the same period.

[/iM]

 

 

CAPE-Cycle-ID

Fig-9a-8-7-2020Fig 9a depicts the CAPE-Cycle-ID and the year-on-year rate-of-change of the Shiller CAPE;  the level switched from 0 to +2 end of June 2020. This indicator is described here.

To avoid the bear market, exit stocks when the spread between the 5-month and 25-month moving averages of S&P-real becomes negative and simultaneously the CAPE-Cycle-ID score is 0 or -2. (read more)

 

Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns

Fig-9b-8-7-2020The estimated forward 10‐year annualized real return decreased to 6.3% (previous 6.8) with a 95% confidence interval : 5.0% to 7.0% (previous 5.5% to 8.1%).

 

 

iM-GT Timer

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Trade Weighted USD

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TIAA Real Estate Account

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