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iM-feesWe offer three categories of membership – bronze, silver and gold at $20, $40 and $80 per month respectively, or discounted on a per year basis. The table to the left (just click on it) lists what you can access depending on the membership level you choose. All information not listed will remain free, however selected key articles could in future be restricted to a paid membership category.

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Most Recent Updates

Model Performance Tables: Sep 19, 2017

Business Cycle Index: Sep 14, 2017

Weekly Macro Signals: Sep 15, 2017

iM System Performance Sep 1, 2017

Monthly Update: Sep 1, 2017

 


September 17, 2017

iM-Best Holdings

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September 19, 2017

Performance-wk-9-19-2017 Performance-mth-9-19-2017 Out of sample performance summary of our models for the past 1, 2, 4 and 13 week periods. The active active return indicates how the models over- or underperformed the benchmark ETF SPY. Also the YTD, and the 1-, 3-, 5- and 10-year annualized returns are shown in the second table
RequireSilver
iM-Best(SPY-SH).R1: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 13.4%, and for the last 12 months is 19.4%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 13.3% and 19.4% respectively.. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/2/2009 would have grown to $524,071 which includes $4,654 cash and excludes $15,358 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireSilver
iM-Combo3.R1: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 13.6%, and for the last 12 months is 17.0%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 13.3% and 19.4% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Combo3.R1 gained 0.52% at a time when SPY gained 0.70%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 2/3/2014 would have grown to $142,716 which includes -$997 cash and excludes $3,437 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold
iM-Combo5: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 17.0%, and for the last 12 months is 16.9%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 13.3% and 19.4% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Combo5 gained 0.35% at a time when SPY gained 0.70%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 2/22/2016 would have grown to $115,412 which includes -$21 cash and excludes $599 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireSilverFig-8.1.VDIGXtrade-9-19-2017
iM-Best10(VDIGX)-Trader: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 15.2%, and for the last 12 months is 29.2%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 13.3% and 19.4% respectively. Since inception, on 7/1/2014, the model gained 67.88% while the benchmark SPY gained 36.23% and VDIGX gained 33.26% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Best10(VDIGX) gained 0.91% at a time when SPY gained 0.70%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 7/1/2014 would have grown to $167,875 which includes $368 cash and excludes $1,694 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold
iM-BESTOGA-3: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 7.9%, and for the last 12 months is 7.1%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 13.3% and 19.4% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-BESTOGA-3 gained -2.33% at a time when SPY gained 0.70%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 2/3/2014 would have grown to $218,357 which includes $207 cash and excludes $1,818 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold
iM-Best7(HiD-LoV): The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 9.3%, and for the last 12 months is 15.0%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 13.3% and 19.4% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-BESTOGA-3 gained 0.29% at a time when SPY gained 0.70%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $112,288 which includes -$1 cash and excludes $1,211 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold
iM 6-Stock Capital Strength Portfolio: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 27.3%, and since inception 34.7%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 13.3% and 19.9% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM 6-Stock Capital Strength Portfolio gained 0.95% at a time when SPY gained 0.70%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 10/28/2016 would have grown to $134,657 which includes $1,919 cash and excludes $440 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold
iM-BestogaX5-System: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 7.0%, and for the last 12 months is 13.3%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 13.3% and 19.4% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Best8(S&P 500)Tax-Eff. gained 0.62% at a time when SPY gained 0.70%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 3/28/2016 would have grown to $105,464 which includes $146 cash and excludes $786 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGoldFig-7.1.USMVtrade-9-19-2017
iM-Best12(USMV)-Trader: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 13.7%, and for the last 12 months is 14.3%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 13.3% and 19.4% respectively. Since inception, on 6/30/2014, the model gained 58.98% while the benchmark SPY gained 36.23% and the ETF USMV gained 45.03% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Best12(USMV)-Trader gained -0.09% at a time when SPY gained 0.70%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2014 would have grown to $158,978 which includes $1,057 cash and excludes $3,417 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGoldFig-9.1.USMVQ1-9-19-2017
iM-Best12(USMV)Q1-Investor: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 18.1%, and for the last 12 months is 23.9%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 13.3% and 19.4% respectively. Since inception, on 1/5/2015, the model gained 48.62% while the benchmark SPY gained 30.91% and the ETF USMV gained 33.19% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Best12(USMV)Q1 gained -0.31% at a time when SPY gained 0.70%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2015 would have grown to $148,615 which includes -$242 cash and excludes $821 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGoldFig-10.1.USMVQ2-9-19-2017
iM-Best12(USMV)Q2-Investor: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 15.2%, and for the last 12 months is 20.4%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 13.3% and 19.4% respectively. Since inception, on 3/30/2015, the model gained 32.58% while the benchmark SPY gained 26.24% and the ETF USMV gained 28.64% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Best12(USMV)Q2 gained 0.28% at a time when SPY gained 0.70%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 3/30/2015 would have grown to $132,580 which includes -$238 cash and excludes $704 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireSilverFig-5.1.USMVQ3-9-19-2017
iM-Best12(USMV)Q3-Investor: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 8.3%, and for the last 12 months is 18.5%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 13.3% and 19.4% respectively. Since inception, on 7/1/2014, the model gained 67.83% while the benchmark SPY gained 36.23% and the ETF USMV gained 45.03% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Best12(USMV)Q3 gained 0.82% at a time when SPY gained 0.70%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 7/1/2014 would have grown to $167,835 which includes $492 cash and excludes $1,066 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGoldFig-6.1.USMVQ4-9-19-2017
iM-Best12(USMV)Q4-Investor: Since inception, on 9/29/2014, the model gained 66.86% while the benchmark SPY gained 34.17% and the ETF USMV gained 43.03% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Best12(USMV)Q4 gained 0.49% at a time when SPY gained 0.70%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 9/29/2014 would have grown to $166,858 which includes $302 cash and excludes $869 spent on fees and slippage.
Fig-10.USMV-Portfolio-vs-SPY-9-19-2017
Average Performance of iM-Best12(USMV)Q1+Q2+Q3+Q4-Investor resulted in an excess return of 36.82% over SPY. (see iM-USMV Investor Portfolio)
RequireGold
iM-Best(Short): The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 3.0%, and for the last 12 months is 3.0%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 13.3% and 19.4% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Best(Short) gained -0.35% at a time when SPY gained 0.70%. Over the period 1/2/2009 to 9/18/2017 the starting capital of $100,000 would have grown to $99,652 which includes $199,252 cash and excludes $22,669 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireSilver
iM-Best2 MC-Score ETF System: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 10.7%, and for the last 12 months is 11.2%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 13.3% and 19.4% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Best2 MC-Score ETF System gained -0.19% at a time when SPY gained 0.70%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $107,362 which includes $100 cash and excludes $110 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireSilver
iM-Best4 MC-Score Vanguard System: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 8.7%, and for the last 12 months is 10.9%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 13.3% and 19.4% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Best4 MC-Score Vanguard System gained -0.46% at a time when SPY gained 0.70%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $108,199 which includes $1,608 cash and excludes $00 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold
iM-Composite (SH-RSP) Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 9.8%, and for the last 12 months is 16.2%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 13.3% and 19.4% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Composite (SH-RSP) Timer gained 0.26% at a time when SPY gained 0.70%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $120,642 which includes $1,074 cash and excludes $513 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold
iM-Composite (SPY-IEF) Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 14.8%, and for the last 12 months is 19.7%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 13.3% and 19.4% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Composite (SPY-IEF) Timer gained 0.20% at a time when SPY gained 0.70%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $123,585 which includes $223 cash and excludes $1,390 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold
iM-Composite(Gold-Stocks-Bond) Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 24.5%, and for the last 12 months is 29.5%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 13.3% and 19.4% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Composite(Gold-Stocks-Bond) Timer gained -1.47% at a time when SPY gained 0.70%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $129,393 which includes $53 cash and excludes $1,955 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold
iM-Low Turnover Composite Timer Combo: The model’s out of sample performance from inception is 4.5%. The benchmark SPY performance over the same period is 7.8%. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Low Turnover Composite Timer Combo gained -0.27% at a time when SPY gained 0.70%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 3/24/27 would have grown to $104,547 which includes $686 cash and excludes $69 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold
iM-Min Drawdown Combo: The model’s out of sample performance from inception is 4.6%. The benchmark SPY performance over the same period is 7.4%. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Min Drawdown Combo gained -0.12% at a time when SPY gained 0.70%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 4/5/2017 would have grown to $104,627 which includes $919 cash and excludes $103 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold
iM-5ETF Trader (includes leveraged ETFs): The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 13.5%, and since inception 16.7%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 13.3% and 19.9% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-5ETF Trader (includes leveraged ETFs) gained 1.75% at a time when SPY gained 0.70%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 10/30/2016 would have grown to $142,160 which includes $552 cash and excludes $1,030 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold
iM-Standard 5ETF Trader (excludes leveraged ETFs): The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 13.5%, and since inception 16.7%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 13.3% and 19.9% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Standard 5ETF Trader (excludes leveraged ETFs) gained 0.76% at a time when SPY gained 0.70%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 10/30/2016 would have grown to $116,717 which includes $863 cash and excludes $880 spent on fees and slippage.

 



September 14, 2017

 

Business Cycle Index

BCI-9-14-2017

The BCI at 226.4 is near last week’s 226.3, and the BCIp is at 92.6. However, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg is at 13.7 is below last week’s 14.3.

No recession is signaled.

 

 



September 15, 2017

Market Signals Summary:

The MAC-US model is invested. 

To view this premium content requires membership category: Silver or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 10-13-2017 16:00 (New York), or please login or register
The MAC-AU is also invested.  The recession indicators COMP and iM-BCIg do not signal a recession. 

 

Stock-markets:

Fig-2.-9-15-2017The MAC-US model generated a buy-signal 4/5/2016 and thus is invested in the stock-markets. The sell-spread (red graph) is below last week’s level and has to fall below zero to signal a sell.

 

 

To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 10-13-2017 16:00 (New York), or please login or register

Fig-2.1-9-15-2017The MAC-AU model is invested in the markets after it generated a buy signal on March 21, 2016. The sell-spread is below last week’s level and has to fall below zero to signal a sell.

This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations.

 

Recession:

Fig-3.-9-15-2017Figure 3 shows the COMP below last week’s  downward revised  level. No recession is indicated.    COMP can be used for stock market exit timing as discussed in this article The Use of Recession Indicators in Stock Market Timing.

 

 

Fig-3.1-9-15-2017Figure 3.1 shows the recession indicator iM-BCIg which also is down from last week’s level. An imminent recession is not signaled .

Please also refer to the BCI page

 

 

Fig-3.2-9-15-2017The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (FRR2-10) is near last week’s level and far away from signalling a recession. A downward trend of the FRR2-10 has set in.

A description of this indicator can be found here.



September 15, 2017

Bond-market:

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The Yield Curve:

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Silver:

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iM Sytems, Performance Reports

September 1, 2017

iM-Best Systems Performance (R2G and others)

Performance-mth-9-1-2017Performance comparison of the iM-Best  models hosted on P123 and on iMarketSignals. Links to the description and to the models can be found  here

 

 

iM Vanguard / TIAA-CREF Systems

Fig13.2s4b-4-7-2015Performance comparison of the iM Vanguard / TIAA-CREF Systems, read more ….

 

 

 



Monthly Updates

September 1, 2017

Unemployment

Fig-8.-9-1-2017The unemployment rate recession model (article link), has been updated with the August UER of 4.4%. Based on the historic patterns of the unemployment rate indicators prior to recessions one can reasonably conclude that the U.S. economy is not likely to go into recession anytime soon. The growth rate UERg is at minus 11.13% (last month minus 12.68%) and EMA spread of the UER is at minus 0.21% (last month minus 0.27%).

Here is the link to the full update.

The Dynamic Linearly Detrended Enhanced Aggregate Spread:

DAGS-9-1-2017The updated level of this indicator, -104bps (last months -96bps), confirms the January 20, 2017 signal. Based on past history a recession could start at the earliest in October 2017, but not later than May 2019. The average lead time to previous recessions provided by DAGS was 15 months which would indicate a recession start for April 2018.

 

Coppock Indicator for the S&P500

Fig-9.-9-1-2017The Coppock indicator for the S&P500 entered the market end May 2017.  This model is in stocks.   This indicator is described here.

 

 

CAPE-Cycle-ID

Fig-9a-9-1-2017Fig 9a depicts the CAPE-Cycle-ID and the year-on-year rate-of-change of the Shiller CAPE.  A model using this indicator invests in the market when the Cycle-ID is +2 or 0, and when the Cycle-ID equals -2 the model is in cash. This indicator is described here.

 

 

Trade Weighted USD

USD-9-1-2017 The TW$ value is weakening in spite of increasing federal fund rates.

 

 

TIAA Real Estate Account

To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 09-29-2017 16:00 (New York), or please login or register

 

 

 



 

 

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