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Friday’s Weekly Update
Thursday’s Business Cycle Index (paused)
Most Recent Updates
Model Performance Tables: Sep 15, 2026
iM-Business Cycle Index Sep 17, 2026
Weekly Macro Signals: Jun 5, 2026
iM System Performance May 8, 2026
Monthly Update: May 8, 2026
September 15, 2026
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Out of sample performance summary of our models for the past 1, 2, 4 and 13 week periods. The active active return indicates how the models over- or underperformed the benchmark ETF SPY. Also the YTD, and the 1-, 3-, 5- and 10-year annualized returns are shown in the second table |
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iM-Inflation Attuned Multi-Model Market Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 9.1%, and for the last 12 months is 13.1%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 12.2% and 17.0% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Inflation Attuned Multi-Model Market Timer gained -0.05% at a time when SPY gained -1.21%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 3/24/2017 would have grown to $167,050,672 which includes $3,098,198 cash and excludes $4,103,439 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-Conference Board LEIg Timer: The model’s performance YTD is 14.3%, and for the last 12 months is 7.3%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 20.1% and 9.4% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Conference Board LEIg Timer gained -1.01% at a time when SPY gained -1.21%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 4/5/2017 would have grown to $760,875 which includes $6,308 cash and excludes $769 spent on fees and slippage. |
| iM-FlipSaver 60:40 | 20:80 – 2017: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 8.2%, and for the last 12 months is 8.8%. Over the same period the benchmark E60B40 performance was 6.7% and 9.8% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-FlipSaver 80:20 | 20:80 gained -1.23% at a time when SPY gained -1.16%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 7/16/2015 would have grown to $194,004 which includes $64 cash and excludes $5,614 spent on fees and slippage. | |
| iM-FlipSaver 70:30 | 20:80 – 2017: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 9.5%, and for the last 12 months is 10.2%. Over the same period the benchmark E60B40 performance was 6.7% and 9.8% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-FlipSaver 70:30 | 20:80 gained -1.26% at a time when SPY gained -1.16%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 7/15/2015 would have grown to $204,642 which includes $453 cash and excludes $5,886 spent on fees and slippage. | |
| iM-FlipSaver 80:20 | 20:80 – 2017: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 10.9%, and for the last 12 months is 11.6%. Over the same period the benchmark E60B40 performance was 6.7% and 9.8% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-FlipSaver 80:20 | 20:80 gained -1.27% at a time when SPY gained -1.16%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/2/2017 would have grown to $215,400 which includes $2,109 cash and excludes $6,148 spent on fees and slippage. | |
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iM-5HedgeFundSelect: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 968.24% while the benchmark SPY gained 342.70% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-5HedgeFundSelect gained -3.15% at a time when SPY gained -1.21%. A starting capital of $25,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $267,060 which includes $2,222 cash and excludes $3,481 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-10LargeHedgeFundSelect: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 716.58% while the benchmark SPY gained 342.70% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-10LargeHedgeFundSelect gained -2.61% at a time when SPY gained -1.21%. A starting capital of $25,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $193,695 which includes -$10,235 cash and excludes $2,030 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-Top5(QQQ)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 1976.80% while the benchmark SPY gained 342.70% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(QQQ)Select gained -1.31% at a time when SPY gained -1.21%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $2,076,799 which includes -$27,079 cash and excludes $35,396 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-Top5(XLB)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 299.51% while the benchmark SPY gained 342.70% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLB)Select gained -3.42% at a time when SPY gained -1.21%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $399,506 which includes $3,848 cash and excludes $18,262 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-Top5(XLI)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 439.57% while the benchmark SPY gained 342.70% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLI)Select gained -2.22% at a time when SPY gained -1.21%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $539,565 which includes $2,932 cash and excludes $10,212 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-Top5(XLK)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 1049.55% while the benchmark SPY gained 342.70% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLK)Select gained 0.33% at a time when SPY gained -1.21%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $1,149,546 which includes $3,728 cash and excludes $3,886 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-Top5(XLP)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 243.94% while the benchmark SPY gained 342.70% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLP)Select gained -2.02% at a time when SPY gained -1.21%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $343,936 which includes $2,488 cash and excludes $3,557 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-Top5(XLV)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 395.67% while the benchmark SPY gained 342.70% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLV)Select gained -3.15% at a time when SPY gained -1.21%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $495,674 which includes -$10,939 cash and excludes $20,936 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-Top5(XLU)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 202.27% while the benchmark SPY gained 342.70% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLU)Select gained -2.32% at a time when SPY gained -1.21%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $302,274 which includes $2,174 cash and excludes $19,252 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-Top5(XLY)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 350.87% while the benchmark SPY gained 342.70% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLY)Select gained -3.06% at a time when SPY gained -1.21%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $450,875 which includes -$2,918 cash and excludes $8,820 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-Seasonal Super-Sectors (Top5 combo) : Since inception, on 11/17/2020, the model gained 152.02% while the benchmark SPY gained 129.81% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Seasonal Super-Sectors (Top5 combo) gained -1.31% at a time when SPY gained -1.21%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 11/17/2020 would have grown to $252,023 which includes -$565 cash and excludes $00 spent on fees and slippage. |
| iM-Dividend Growth Portfolio: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 31.1%, and for the last 12 months is 30.6%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 12.2% and 17.0% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Dividend Growth Portfolio gained -1.75% at a time when SPY gained -1.21%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $698,285 which includes $2,868 cash and excludes $16,076 spent on fees and slippage. | |
| iM-Gold Momentum Timer (AU, NEM, SBSW): The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -3.7%, and for the last 12 months is 59.2%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 12.2% and 17.0% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Gold Momentum Timer (AU, NEM, SBSW) gained -7.99% at a time when SPY gained -1.21%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to -$36,319 which includes $291,235 cash and excludes Gain to date spent on fees and slippage. | |
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iM-ModSum/YieldCurve Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 8.6%, and for the last 12 months is 9.1%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 12.2% and 17.0% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-PortSum/YieldCurve Timer gained -1.21% at a time when SPY gained -1.21%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/1/2016 would have grown to $416,072 which includes -$891 cash and excludes $2,605 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-Best10(VDIGX)-Trader: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -2.4%, and for the last 12 months is 0.0%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 12.2% and 17.0% respectively. Since inception, on 7/1/2014, the model gained 263.60% while the benchmark SPY gained 375.21% and VDIGX gained -100.00% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Best10(VDIGX) gained -0.75% at a time when SPY gained -1.21%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 7/1/2014 would have grown to $363,602 which includes $825 cash and excludes $5,808 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM 6-Stock Capital Strength Portfolio: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 29.5%, and for the last 12 months is 28.2%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 12.2% and 17.0% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM 6-Stock Capital Strength Portfolio gained 0.98% at a time when SPY gained -1.21%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 10/28/2016 would have grown to $332,566 which includes $2,093 cash and excludes $4,732 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-Best12(USMV)-Trader: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 22.4%, and for the last 12 months is 26.5%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 12.2% and 17.0% respectively. Since inception, on 6/30/2014, the model gained 422.87% while the benchmark SPY gained 375.21% and the ETF USMV gained -100.00% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Best12(USMV)-Trader gained -0.98% at a time when SPY gained -1.21%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2014 would have grown to $522,869 which includes $1,554 cash and excludes $9,199 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-Min Volatility(USMV) Investor (Tax Efficient): The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 21.1%, and for the last 12 months is 24.6%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 12.2% and 17.0% respectively. Since inception, on 1/3/2013, the model gained 1341.34% while the benchmark SPY gained 555.99% and the ETF USMV gained -100.00% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Best12(USMV)Q1 gained -1.63% at a time when SPY gained -1.21%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/3/2013 would have grown to $1,441,341 which includes -$340 cash and excludes $18,062 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-Bond Market Trader (High-Yield Bond or 10-yr Treasury Bond): The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -1.7%, and for the last 12 months is -1.3%. Over the same period the benchmark BND performance was -1.3% and -0.7% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Bond Market Trader (High-Yield Bond or 10-yr Treasury Bond) gained -1.41% at a time when BND gained -1.08%. A starting capital of $10,000 at inception on 1/3/2000 would have grown to $146,582 which includes $2,004 cash and excludes $2,977 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-ModSum/YieldCurve Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 8.6%, and for the last 12 months is 9.1%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 12.2% and 17.0% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-PortSum/YieldCurve Timer gained -1.21% at a time when SPY gained -1.21%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/1/2016 would have grown to $416,072 which includes -$891 cash and excludes $2,605 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-Best2 MC-Score ETF System: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 8.7%, and for the last 12 months is 8.2%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 12.2% and 17.0% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Best2 MC-Score ETF System gained -0.39% at a time when SPY gained -1.21%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $204,512 which includes $2,002 cash and excludes $5,779 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-Best4 MC-Score Vanguard System: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 3.9%, and for the last 12 months is 3.5%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 12.2% and 17.0% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Best4 MC-Score Vanguard System gained -1.56% at a time when SPY gained -1.21%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $190,070 which includes $7,671 cash and excludes $00 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-Composite (SPY-IEF) Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 13.5%, and for the last 12 months is 13.9%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 12.2% and 17.0% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Composite (SPY-IEF) Timer gained -1.20% at a time when SPY gained -1.21%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $245,792 which includes $1,550 cash and excludes $8,651 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-Composite(Gold-Stocks-Bond) Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -5.8%, and for the last 12 months is 11.3%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 12.2% and 17.0% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Composite(Gold-Stocks-Bond) Timer gained -3.42% at a time when SPY gained -1.21%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $380,480 which includes $110 cash and excludes $10,872 spent on fees and slippage. |
September 17, 2026
iM-Business Cycle Index
The BCI is not signalling a recession
June 5, 2026
Market Signals Summary:
The iM-Google Trend, the MAC-US, S&P 500 Coppock Indicator, CAPE-Cycle-ID are invested in the stock markets, whereas the the 3-Month Hi-Lo Index Index is dis-invested. The BCIg does not signal a recession as does the growth of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator. The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2 and 10 is no longer inverted and the curve is flattening The iM-Gold Timer and iM-Gold Coppock are invested in gold, whereas the iM-Silver Coppock is in cash.
Stock-markets:
The MAC-US model is invested since mid June 2025,
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The 3-mo Hi-Lo Index Index of the S&P500 is at 2.73% (last week 2.42%) and is dis-invested from the markets.
The Coppock indicator for the S&P500 invested the the US stock markets mid August 2024. This indicator is described here.
The MAC-AU model is dis-invested from the Australian stock market sine end April 2025.
This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations.
Recession:
BCIg is not signaling a recession.
The growth of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator does not signal a recession, yet
The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (FRR2-10) is no longer inverted and the curve is steepening.
A description of this indicator can be found here.
The iM-Low Frequency Timer switched to bonds on 9/26/2022.
A description of this indicator can be found here.
June 5, 2026
Bond-market:
The BVR-model favors high beta bonds (long-bonds) and intermediate duration bonds when the BVR rises. The Bond Value Ratio as shown in Fig 4 is above last week’s value, and according to the model, only when BVR turns upward after having been lower than the lower offset-line should one consider long bonds again.
The Yield Curve:
The yield curve model indicates the trend of the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries yield spread. Figure 5 charts (i10 – i2), the yield curve is below last week’s level.
Gold:
The modified Coppock Gold indicator, shown in Fig 6, generated a buy signal begin April and is invested in gold.
This indicator is described in Is it Time to Buy Gold Again? – Wait for the buy signal …….
The iM GOLD-TIMER Rev-1 This model generated a new a buy signal mid August 2021 after being in cash for two weeks and thus invested in gold.
Silver:
The modified Coppock Silver indicator shown in Fig 7. iM-coppock model generated is invested in Silver.
This indicator is described in Silver – Better Than Gold: A Modified Coppock Indicator for Silver.
iM Sytems, Performance Reports
May 8, 2026
iM-Best Systems Performance (R2G and others)
Performance comparison of the iM-Best models hosted on P123 and on iMarketSignals.
iM-FlipSavers
Performance graphs for iM-FlipSavers
iM-SuperTimer
Performance graphs for iM-3mo-SuperTimer(SPY-IEF)
Performance graphs for iM-1mo-SuperTimer(SPY-IEF)
Performance graphs for iM-1wk-SuperTimer(SPY-IEF)
Monthly Updates
May 8, 2026
Unemployment
The 5/8/2026 BLS Employment Situation Report reports that the April 2026 unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.3%.
Our UER model does signal a recession with a near zero recession probability of (see graph).
CAPE-Cycle-ID
Fig 9a depicts the CAPE-Cycle-ID and the year-on-year rate-of-change of the Shiller CAPE; the level switched from -2 to 0 end of June 2023 generating a buy signal. This indicator now invested in the markets. This indicator is described here.
To avoid the bear market, exit stocks when the spread between the 5-month and 25-month moving averages of S&P-real becomes negative and simultaneously the CAPE-Cycle-ID score is 0 or -2. (read more)
Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns
The estimated forward 10‐year annualized real return is 4.7% (previous month 5.0%) with a 95% confidence interval 3.3% to 6.2% (3.6% to 6.5%). Also refer to the Realized Forward 10-Year Returns vs. Inflation Rate 
We may be in a rising inflation period with a falling CAPE-MA35 ratio similar to 1964-1973. This implies very low or negative 10 year forward annualized real returns, much lower than the returns indicated by regression analysis shown in the Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns.
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iM-GT Timer
The iM-GT Timer, based on Google Search Trends volume indicator is not invested in the stock markets since beginning November 2025. This indicator is described here.
Trade Weighted USD
Will be updated later, the weekly FRED data series we used was discontinued and replacement series is daily and runs from 2015. We need to adapt our software and graphics first.
TIAA Real Estate Account
The 1-year rolling return is =1.88% (previous month 2.26%) and is invested in the TIAA Real Estate Account since beginning May 2025.