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October 11, 2026

iM-Best Holdings

	Out of sample performance summary of our models for the past 1, 2, 4 and 13 week periods. The active active return indicates how the models over- or underperformed the benchmark ETF SPY. Also the YTD, and the 1-, 3-, 5- and 10-year annualized returns are shown in the second table
	iM-Inflation Attuned Multi-Model Market Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 9.2%, and for the last 12 months is 12.7%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 15.0% and 20.4% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Inflation Attuned Multi-Model Market Timer gained 3.28% at a time when SPY gained 0.42%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 3/24/2017 would have grown to $167,285,364 which includes $4,109,301 cash and excludes $4,103,439 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Conference Board LEIg Timer: The model’s performance YTD is 14.3%, and for the last 12 months is 7.3%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 20.1% and 9.4% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Conference Board LEIg Timer gained 1.47% at a time when SPY gained 0.42%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 4/5/2017 would have grown to $760,206 which includes $9,534 cash and excludes $769 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-FlipSaver 60:40 | 20:80 – 2017: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 9.1%, and for the last 12 months is 9.8%. Over the same period the benchmark E60B40 performance was 7.9% and 11.1% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-FlipSaver 80:20 | 20:80 gained 0.34% at a time when SPY gained 0.47%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 7/16/2015 would have grown to $195,654 which includes $374 cash and excludes $5,614 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-FlipSaver 70:30 | 20:80 – 2017: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 10.8%, and for the last 12 months is 11.6%. Over the same period the benchmark E60B40 performance was 7.9% and 11.1% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-FlipSaver 70:30 | 20:80 gained 0.32% at a time when SPY gained 0.47%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 7/15/2015 would have grown to $207,040 which includes $830 cash and excludes $5,886 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-FlipSaver 80:20 | 20:80 – 2017: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 12.6%, and for the last 12 months is 13.4%. Over the same period the benchmark E60B40 performance was 7.9% and 11.1% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-FlipSaver 80:20 | 20:80 gained 0.30% at a time when SPY gained 0.47%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/2/2017 would have grown to $218,621 which includes $60 cash and excludes $6,150 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-5HedgeFundSelect: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 978.93% while the benchmark SPY gained 353.84% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-5HedgeFundSelect gained -3.54% at a time when SPY gained 0.42%. A starting capital of $25,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $269,732 which includes $10,739 cash and excludes $3,606 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-10LargeHedgeFundSelect: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 728.75% while the benchmark SPY gained 353.84% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-10LargeHedgeFundSelect gained -1.23% at a time when SPY gained 0.42%. A starting capital of $25,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $196,737 which includes -$9,772 cash and excludes $2,084 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(QQQ)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 1896.98% while the benchmark SPY gained 353.84% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(QQQ)Select gained -0.09% at a time when SPY gained 0.42%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $1,996,983 which includes -$27,079 cash and excludes $35,396 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLB)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 276.08% while the benchmark SPY gained 353.84% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLB)Select gained -0.95% at a time when SPY gained 0.42%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $376,082 which includes $3,848 cash and excludes $18,262 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLI)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 422.39% while the benchmark SPY gained 353.84% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLI)Select gained -0.26% at a time when SPY gained 0.42%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $522,388 which includes $3,704 cash and excludes $10,212 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLK)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 1054.20% while the benchmark SPY gained 353.84% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLK)Select gained 3.43% at a time when SPY gained 0.42%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $1,154,205 which includes $457 cash and excludes $3,952 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLP)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 239.52% while the benchmark SPY gained 353.84% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLP)Select gained 3.57% at a time when SPY gained 0.42%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $339,517 which includes -$1,368 cash and excludes $3,653 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLV)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 394.82% while the benchmark SPY gained 353.84% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLV)Select gained 3.40% at a time when SPY gained 0.42%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $494,818 which includes -$9,969 cash and excludes $20,936 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLU)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 201.32% while the benchmark SPY gained 353.84% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLU)Select gained 3.24% at a time when SPY gained 0.42%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $301,325 which includes $3,811 cash and excludes $19,252 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLY)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 339.73% while the benchmark SPY gained 353.84% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLY)Select gained 1.40% at a time when SPY gained 0.42%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $439,729 which includes $450 cash and excludes $8,952 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Seasonal Super-Sectors (Top5 combo) : Since inception, on 11/17/2020, the model gained 148.91% while the benchmark SPY gained 135.59% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Seasonal Super-Sectors (Top5 combo) gained 2.56% at a time when SPY gained 0.42%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 11/17/2020 would have grown to $248,911 which includes $676 cash and excludes $00 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Dividend Growth Portfolio: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 27.5%, and for the last 12 months is 30.8%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 15.0% and 20.4% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Dividend Growth Portfolio gained 1.90% at a time when SPY gained 0.42%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $679,128 which includes $1,552 cash and excludes $16,095 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Gold Momentum Timer (AU, NEM, SBSW): The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -9.0%, and for the last 12 months is 18.4%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 15.0% and 20.4% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Gold Momentum Timer (AU, NEM, SBSW) gained -1.09% at a time when SPY gained 0.42%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $453 which includes $299,241 cash and excludes Gain to date spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-ModSum/YieldCurve Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 11.4%, and for the last 12 months is 11.6%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 15.0% and 20.4% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-PortSum/YieldCurve Timer gained 0.42% at a time when SPY gained 0.42%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/1/2016 would have grown to $426,543 which includes $144 cash and excludes $2,605 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Best10(VDIGX)-Trader: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -0.6%, and for the last 12 months is 4.2%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 15.0% and 20.4% respectively. Since inception, on 7/1/2014, the model gained 270.29% while the benchmark SPY gained 387.18% and VDIGX gained -100.00% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Best10(VDIGX) gained 4.43% at a time when SPY gained 0.42%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 7/1/2014 would have grown to $370,294 which includes $1,163 cash and excludes $5,808 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM 6-Stock Capital Strength Portfolio: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 25.7%, and for the last 12 months is 29.3%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 15.0% and 20.4% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM 6-Stock Capital Strength Portfolio gained 2.85% at a time when SPY gained 0.42%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 10/28/2016 would have grown to $323,011 which includes $2,680 cash and excludes $4,732 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Best12(USMV)-Trader: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 21.2%, and for the last 12 months is 24.9%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 15.0% and 20.4% respectively. Since inception, on 6/30/2014, the model gained 417.80% while the benchmark SPY gained 387.18% and the ETF USMV gained -100.00% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Best12(USMV)-Trader gained 0.89% at a time when SPY gained 0.42%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2014 would have grown to $517,796 which includes $1,728 cash and excludes $9,286 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Min Volatility(USMV) Investor (Tax Efficient): The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 20.7%, and for the last 12 months is 23.9%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 15.0% and 20.4% respectively. Since inception, on 1/3/2013, the model gained 1336.95% while the benchmark SPY gained 572.50% and the ETF USMV gained -100.00% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Best12(USMV)Q1 gained 2.07% at a time when SPY gained 0.42%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/3/2013 would have grown to $1,436,954 which includes -$14,608 cash and excludes $18,439 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Bond Market Trader (High-Yield Bond or 10-yr Treasury Bond): The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -3.0%, and for the last 12 months is -2.8%. Over the same period the benchmark BND performance was -2.2% and -1.9% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Bond Market Trader (High-Yield Bond or 10-yr Treasury Bond) gained 0.56% at a time when BND gained 0.53%. A starting capital of $10,000 at inception on 1/3/2000 would have grown to $144,686 which includes $2,492 cash and excludes $2,977 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-ModSum/YieldCurve Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 11.4%, and for the last 12 months is 11.6%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 15.0% and 20.4% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-PortSum/YieldCurve Timer gained 0.42% at a time when SPY gained 0.42%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/1/2016 would have grown to $426,543 which includes $144 cash and excludes $2,605 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Best2 MC-Score ETF System: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 9.5%, and for the last 12 months is 10.0%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 15.0% and 20.4% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Best2 MC-Score ETF System gained 2.87% at a time when SPY gained 0.42%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $206,022 which includes $2,974 cash and excludes $5,779 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Best4 MC-Score Vanguard System: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 3.3%, and for the last 12 months is 2.9%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 15.0% and 20.4% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Best4 MC-Score Vanguard System gained 2.73% at a time when SPY gained 0.42%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $188,892 which includes $8,854 cash and excludes $00 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Composite (SPY-IEF) Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 16.3%, and for the last 12 months is 16.5%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 15.0% and 20.4% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Composite (SPY-IEF) Timer gained 0.42% at a time when SPY gained 0.42%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $251,926 which includes $2,156 cash and excludes $8,651 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Composite(Gold-Stocks-Bond) Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -8.3%, and for the last 12 months is -1.6%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 15.0% and 20.4% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Composite(Gold-Stocks-Bond) Timer gained 0.68% at a time when SPY gained 0.42%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $370,109 which includes $188 cash and excludes $10,872 spent on fees and slippage.

 

iM-Business Cycle Index

   The BCI is not signalling a recession

 

 

 

Market Signals Summary:

  The  iM-Google Trend, the MAC-US,  S&P 500 Coppock Indicator,  CAPE-Cycle-ID are invested in the stock markets, whereas the the 3-Month Hi-Lo Index Index is dis-invested. The BCIg does not signal a recession as does the growth of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator.  The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2 and 10 is no longer inverted and the curve is flattening The iM-Gold Timer and iM-Gold Coppock are invested in gold, whereas the iM-Silver Coppock is in cash.

 

Stock-markets:

The MAC-US model is invested since mid June 2025,

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The 3-mo Hi-Lo Index Index of the S&P500 is at 2.73%  (last week 2.42%) and is dis-invested from the markets.

 

 

 

The Coppock indicator for the S&P500 invested the the US stock markets mid August 2024.   This indicator is described here.

 

 

 

The MAC-AU model is dis-invested from the Australian stock market sine end April 2025.

This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations.

 

Recession:

 

   BCIg is not signaling a recession.

 

 

 

The growth of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator does not signal a recession, yet

 

 

 

The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (FRR2-10) is no longer inverted and the curve is steepening.

A description of this indicator can be found here.

 

 

The iM-Low Frequency Timer switched to bonds on 9/26/2022.

A description of this indicator can be found here.

Bond-market:

The BVR-model  favors high beta bonds (long-bonds)  and  intermediate duration bonds when the BVR rises. The Bond Value Ratio as shown in Fig 4  is above last week’s value, and according to the model, only when BVR turns upward after having been lower than the lower offset-line should one consider long bonds again.

The Yield Curve:

The yield curve model indicates the trend of the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries yield spread. Figure 5 charts (i10 – i2), the yield curve is below last week’s level.

 

Gold:

The modified Coppock Gold indicator, shown in Fig 6,  generated a buy signal  begin April and is invested in gold.

This indicator is described in Is it Time to Buy Gold Again? – Wait for the buy signal ……. 

 

 

The iM GOLD-TIMER Rev-1   This model generated a new a buy signal mid August 2021 after being in cash for two weeks and thus invested in gold.

 

 

 

Silver:

The modified Coppock Silver indicator shown in Fig 7.  iM-coppock model generated is invested in Silver.

This indicator is described in Silver – Better Than Gold: A Modified Coppock Indicator for Silver.

 iM-Best Systems Performance (R2G and others)

Performance comparison of the iM-Best  models hosted on P123 and on iMarketSignals.

 

 

iM-FlipSavers

Performance graphs for iM-FlipSavers

 

 

 

iM-SuperTimer

Performance graphs for iM-3mo-SuperTimer(SPY-IEF)

 

 

 

Performance graphs for iM-1mo-SuperTimer(SPY-IEF)

 

 

 

Performance graphs for iM-1wk-SuperTimer(SPY-IEF)

 

 

 

Unemployment

The 5/8/2026 BLS Employment Situation Report reports that the April 2026 unemployment rate remained unchanged at  4.3%.

Our UER model does  signal a recession with a near  zero recession probability of (see graph).

 

 

CAPE-Cycle-ID

Fig 9a depicts the CAPE-Cycle-ID and the year-on-year rate-of-change of the Shiller CAPE;  the level switched from -2 to 0 end of June 2023 generating a buy  signal. This indicator now invested in the markets. This indicator is described here.

To avoid the bear market, exit stocks when the spread between the 5-month and 25-month moving averages of S&P-real becomes negative and simultaneously the CAPE-Cycle-ID score is 0 or -2. (read more)

 

Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns

The estimated forward 10‐year annualized real return is 4.7% (previous month 5.0%) with a 95% confidence interval 3.3% to 6.2%  (3.6% to 6.5%). Also refer to the  Realized Forward 10-Year Returns vs. Inflation Rate We may be in a rising inflation period with a falling CAPE-MA35 ratio similar to 1964-1973. This implies very low or negative 10 year forward annualized real returns, much lower than the returns indicated by regression analysis shown in the Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns.

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iM-GT Timer

The iM-GT Timer, based on Google Search Trends volume indicator is not invested in the stock markets since beginning November 2025. This indicator is described here.

 

 

Trade Weighted USD

Will be updated later, the weekly FRED data series we used was discontinued and replacement series is daily and runs from 2015. We need to adapt our software and graphics first.

 

 

 

TIAA Real Estate Account

The 1-year rolling return is =1.88% (previous month 2.26%) and is invested in the TIAA Real Estate Account since beginning May 2025.

Read more …