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Friday’s Weekly Update
Thursday’s Business Cycle Index (paused)
Most Recent Updates
Model Performance Tables: May 5, 2026
iM-Business Cycle Index Apr 2, 2026
Weekly Macro Signals: Apr 3, 2026
iM System Performance Jan 10, 2026
Monthly Update: Apr 3, 2026
May 5, 2026
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Out of sample performance summary of our models for the past 1, 2, 4 and 13 week periods. The active active return indicates how the models over- or underperformed the benchmark ETF SPY. Also the YTD, and the 1-, 3-, 5- and 10-year annualized returns are shown in the second table |
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iM-Inflation Attuned Multi-Model Market Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 4.5%, and for the last 12 months is 17.3%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 5.6% and 28.1% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Inflation Attuned Multi-Model Market Timer gained 3.35% at a time when SPY gained 0.40%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 3/24/2017 would have grown to $160,045,575 which includes $2,052,705 cash and excludes $4,103,439 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-Conference Board LEIg Timer: The model’s performance YTD is 14.3%, and for the last 12 months is 7.3%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 20.1% and 9.4% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Conference Board LEIg Timer gained 0.88% at a time when SPY gained 0.40%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 4/5/2017 would have grown to $708,120 which includes $3,101 cash and excludes $769 spent on fees and slippage. |
| iM-FlipSaver 60:40 | 20:80 – 2017: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 5.0%, and for the last 12 months is 12.3%. Over the same period the benchmark E60B40 performance was 3.4% and 18.4% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-FlipSaver 80:20 | 20:80 gained 0.23% at a time when SPY gained 0.03%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 7/16/2015 would have grown to $188,416 which includes $680 cash and excludes $5,611 spent on fees and slippage. | |
| iM-FlipSaver 70:30 | 20:80 – 2017: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 5.6%, and for the last 12 months is 13.1%. Over the same period the benchmark E60B40 performance was 3.4% and 18.4% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-FlipSaver 70:30 | 20:80 gained 0.28% at a time when SPY gained 0.03%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 7/15/2015 would have grown to $197,211 which includes $591 cash and excludes $5,884 spent on fees and slippage. | |
| iM-FlipSaver 80:20 | 20:80 – 2017: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 6.1%, and for the last 12 months is 13.8%. Over the same period the benchmark E60B40 performance was 3.4% and 18.4% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-FlipSaver 80:20 | 20:80 gained 0.32% at a time when SPY gained 0.03%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/2/2017 would have grown to $205,987 which includes $512 cash and excludes $6,148 spent on fees and slippage. | |
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iM-5HedgeFundSelect: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 907.01% while the benchmark SPY gained 316.68% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-5HedgeFundSelect gained 0.65% at a time when SPY gained 0.40%. A starting capital of $25,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $251,751 which includes $14,135 cash and excludes $3,240 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-10LargeHedgeFundSelect: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 695.14% while the benchmark SPY gained 316.68% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-10LargeHedgeFundSelect gained -1.60% at a time when SPY gained 0.40%. A starting capital of $25,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $198,784 which includes $253 cash and excludes $1,958 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-Top5(QQQ)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 1542.92% while the benchmark SPY gained 316.68% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(QQQ)Select gained 4.01% at a time when SPY gained 0.40%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $1,642,917 which includes -$2,280 cash and excludes $29,818 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-Top5(XLB)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 273.52% while the benchmark SPY gained 316.68% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLB)Select gained -2.19% at a time when SPY gained 0.40%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $373,523 which includes -$449 cash and excludes $17,699 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-Top5(XLI)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 430.47% while the benchmark SPY gained 316.68% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLI)Select gained -6.65% at a time when SPY gained 0.40%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $530,465 which includes $6,771 cash and excludes $9,370 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-Top5(XLK)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 736.31% while the benchmark SPY gained 316.68% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLK)Select gained 4.85% at a time when SPY gained 0.40%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $836,310 which includes -$1,328 cash and excludes $3,604 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-Top5(XLP)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 229.85% while the benchmark SPY gained 316.68% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLP)Select gained -3.81% at a time when SPY gained 0.40%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $329,846 which includes $524 cash and excludes $3,312 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-Top5(XLV)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 372.48% while the benchmark SPY gained 316.68% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLV)Select gained -2.78% at a time when SPY gained 0.40%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $472,478 which includes $3,347 cash and excludes $19,968 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-Top5(XLU)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 226.30% while the benchmark SPY gained 316.68% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLU)Select gained -0.55% at a time when SPY gained 0.40%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $326,304 which includes -$4,120 cash and excludes $18,682 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-Top5(XLY)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 334.33% while the benchmark SPY gained 316.68% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLY)Select gained -3.96% at a time when SPY gained 0.40%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $434,331 which includes $339 cash and excludes $8,204 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-Seasonal Super-Sectors (Top5 combo) : Since inception, on 11/17/2020, the model gained 119.32% while the benchmark SPY gained 116.30% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Seasonal Super-Sectors (Top5 combo) gained 1.13% at a time when SPY gained 0.40%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 11/17/2020 would have grown to $219,321 which includes -$363 cash and excludes $00 spent on fees and slippage. |
| iM-Dividend Growth Portfolio: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 3.2%, and for the last 12 months is 20.4%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 5.6% and 28.1% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Dividend Growth Portfolio gained -1.57% at a time when SPY gained 0.40%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $549,458 which includes $1,167 cash and excludes $14,896 spent on fees and slippage. | |
| iM-Gold Momentum Timer (AU, NEM, SBSW): The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -4.0%, and for the last 12 months is 140.8%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 5.6% and 28.1% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Gold Momentum Timer (AU, NEM, SBSW) gained -7.68% at a time when SPY gained 0.40%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to -$91,994 which includes $224,581 cash and excludes Gain to date spent on fees and slippage. | |
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iM-ModSum/YieldCurve Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 6.8%, and for the last 12 months is 12.4%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 5.6% and 28.1% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-PortSum/YieldCurve Timer gained 0.39% at a time when SPY gained 0.40%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/1/2016 would have grown to $409,177 which includes $5,656 cash and excludes $2,335 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-Best10(VDIGX)-Trader: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -11.5%, and for the last 12 months is -6.8%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 5.6% and 28.1% respectively. Since inception, on 7/1/2014, the model gained 229.74% while the benchmark SPY gained 347.29% and VDIGX gained 37.12% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Best10(VDIGX) gained 0.33% at a time when SPY gained 0.40%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 7/1/2014 would have grown to $329,740 which includes $972 cash and excludes $5,704 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM 6-Stock Capital Strength Portfolio: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 24.5%, and for the last 12 months is 32.7%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 5.6% and 28.1% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM 6-Stock Capital Strength Portfolio gained 2.05% at a time when SPY gained 0.40%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 10/28/2016 would have grown to $319,754 which includes $2,660 cash and excludes $4,594 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-Best12(USMV)-Trader: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 9.5%, and for the last 12 months is 30.1%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 5.6% and 28.1% respectively. Since inception, on 6/30/2014, the model gained 367.78% while the benchmark SPY gained 347.29% and the ETF USMV gained 214.97% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Best12(USMV)-Trader gained 1.87% at a time when SPY gained 0.40%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2014 would have grown to $467,784 which includes $2,224 cash and excludes $8,803 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-Min Volatility(USMV) Investor (Tax Efficient): The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -0.6%, and for the last 12 months is 17.7%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 5.6% and 28.1% respectively. Since inception, on 1/3/2013, the model gained 1082.51% while the benchmark SPY gained 517.44% and the ETF USMV gained 517.44% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Best12(USMV)Q1 gained 2.57% at a time when SPY gained 0.40%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/3/2013 would have grown to $1,182,511 which includes -$1,274 cash and excludes $16,284 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-Bond Market Trader (High-Yield Bond or 10-yr Treasury Bond): The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 0.2%, and for the last 12 months is 2.7%. Over the same period the benchmark BND performance was 0.0% and 4.6% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Bond Market Trader (High-Yield Bond or 10-yr Treasury Bond) gained -0.56% at a time when BND gained -0.53%. A starting capital of $10,000 at inception on 1/3/2000 would have grown to $149,355 which includes $2,457 cash and excludes $2,916 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-ModSum/YieldCurve Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 6.8%, and for the last 12 months is 12.4%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 5.6% and 28.1% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-PortSum/YieldCurve Timer gained 0.39% at a time when SPY gained 0.40%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/1/2016 would have grown to $409,177 which includes $5,656 cash and excludes $2,335 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-Best2 MC-Score ETF System: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 4.4%, and for the last 12 months is 5.6%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 5.6% and 28.1% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Best2 MC-Score ETF System gained 1.14% at a time when SPY gained 0.40%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $196,447 which includes $1,021 cash and excludes $5,779 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-Best4 MC-Score Vanguard System: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 6.7%, and for the last 12 months is 11.7%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 5.6% and 28.1% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Best4 MC-Score Vanguard System gained 0.42% at a time when SPY gained 0.40%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $195,254 which includes $5,788 cash and excludes $00 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-Composite (SPY-IEF) Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 6.9%, and for the last 12 months is 12.0%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 5.6% and 28.1% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Composite (SPY-IEF) Timer gained 0.40% at a time when SPY gained 0.40%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $231,420 which includes $939 cash and excludes $8,651 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-Composite(Gold-Stocks-Bond) Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -0.6%, and for the last 12 months is 32.3%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 5.6% and 28.1% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Composite(Gold-Stocks-Bond) Timer gained -3.51% at a time when SPY gained 0.40%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $401,467 which includes $1,642 cash and excludes $10,870 spent on fees and slippage. |
April 2, 2026
iM-Business Cycle Index
The BCI is not signalling a recession
April 3, 2026
Market Signals Summary:
The iM-Google Trend, the MAC-US, S&P 500 Coppock Indicator, CAPE-Cycle-ID are invested in the stock markets, whereas the the 3-Month Hi-Lo Index Index is dis-invested. The BCIg does not signal a recession as does the growth of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator. The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2 and 10 is no longer inverted and the curve is flattening The iM-Gold Timer and iM-Gold Coppock are invested in gold, whereas the iM-Silver Coppock is in cash.
Stock-markets:
The MAC-US model is invested since mid June 2025,
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The 3-mo Hi-Lo Index Index of the S&P500 is at 0.99% (last week 3.16%) and is dis-invested from the markets.
The Coppock indicator for the S&P500 invested the the US stock markets mid August 2024. This indicator is described here.
The MAC-AU model is dis-invested from the Australian stock market sine end April 2025.
This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations.
Recession:
BCIg is not signaling a recession.
The growth of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator does not signal a recession, yet
The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (FRR2-10) is no longer inverted and the curve is steepening.
A description of this indicator can be found here.
The iM-Low Frequency Timer switched to bonds on 9/26/2022.
A description of this indicator can be found here.
April 3, 2026
Bond-market:
The BVR-model favors high beta bonds (long-bonds) and intermediate duration bonds when the BVR rises. The Bond Value Ratio as shown in Fig 4 is above last week’s value, and according to the model, only when BVR turns upward after having been lower than the lower offset-line should one consider long bonds again.
The Yield Curve:
The yield curve model indicates the trend of the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries yield spread. Figure 5 charts (i10 – i2), the yield curve is below last week’s level.
Gold:
The modified Coppock Gold indicator, shown in Fig 6, generated a buy signal begin April and is invested in gold.
This indicator is described in Is it Time to Buy Gold Again? – Wait for the buy signal …….
The iM GOLD-TIMER Rev-1 This model generated a new a buy signal mid August 2021 after being in cash for two weeks and thus invested in gold.
Silver:
The modified Coppock Silver indicator shown in Fig 7. iM-coppock model generated a sell signal end mid February 2026 and is dis-invested in Silver.
This indicator is described in Silver – Better Than Gold: A Modified Coppock Indicator for Silver.
iM Sytems, Performance Reports
January 10, 2026
iM-Best Systems Performance (R2G and others)
Performance comparison of the iM-Best models hosted on P123 and on iMarketSignals.
iM-FlipSavers
Performance graphs for iM-FlipSavers
iM-SuperTimer
Performance graphs for iM-3mo-SuperTimer(SPY-IEF)
Performance graphs for iM-1mo-SuperTimer(SPY-IEF)
Performance graphs for iM-1wk-SuperTimer(SPY-IEF)
Monthly Updates
April 3, 2026
Unemployment
The 3/6/2025 BLS Employment Situation Report reports that the February 2026 unemployment rate decreased by 0.1% to 4.3%.
Our UER model does signal a recession with a near zero recession probability of (see graph).
CAPE-Cycle-ID
Fig 9a depicts the CAPE-Cycle-ID and the year-on-year rate-of-change of the Shiller CAPE; the level switched from -2 to 0 end of June 2023 generating a buy signal. This indicator now invested in the markets. This indicator is described here.
To avoid the bear market, exit stocks when the spread between the 5-month and 25-month moving averages of S&P-real becomes negative and simultaneously the CAPE-Cycle-ID score is 0 or -2. (read more)
Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns
The estimated forward 10‐year annualized real return is 5.0% (previous month 4.5%) with a 95% confidence interval 3.6% to 6.5% (3.0% to 5.9%). Also refer to the Realized Forward 10-Year Returns vs. Inflation Rate 
We may be in a rising inflation period with a falling CAPE-MA35 ratio similar to 1964-1973. This implies very low or negative 10 year forward annualized real returns, much lower than the returns indicated by regression analysis shown in the Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns.
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iM-GT Timer
The iM-GT Timer, based on Google Search Trends volume indicator is not invested in the stock markets since beginning November 2025. This indicator is described here.
Trade Weighted USD
Will be updated later, the weekly FRED data series we used was discontinued and replacement series is daily and runs from 2015. We need to adapt our software and graphics first.
TIAA Real Estate Account
The 1-year rolling return is =2.26% (previous month 2.34%) and is invested in the TIAA Real Estate Account since beginning May 2025.