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Friday’s Weekly Update
Thursday’s Business Cycle Index (paused)
Most Recent Updates
Model Performance Tables: Oct 27, 2026
iM-Business Cycle Index Oct 29, 2026
Weekly Macro Signals: Oct 30, 2026
iM System Performance May 8, 2026
Monthly Update: May 8, 2026
October 27, 2026
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Out of sample performance summary of our models for the past 1, 2, 4 and 13 week periods. The active active return indicates how the models over- or underperformed the benchmark ETF SPY. Also the YTD, and the 1-, 3-, 5- and 10-year annualized returns are shown in the second table |
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iM-Inflation Attuned Multi-Model Market Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 13.6%, and for the last 12 months is 12.3%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 13.1% and 14.2% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Inflation Attuned Multi-Model Market Timer gained 2.70% at a time when SPY gained -0.14%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 3/24/2017 would have grown to $173,900,311 which includes $4,109,301 cash and excludes $4,103,439 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-Conference Board LEIg Timer: The model’s performance YTD is 14.3%, and for the last 12 months is 7.3%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 20.1% and 9.4% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Conference Board LEIg Timer gained 1.56% at a time when SPY gained -0.14%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 4/5/2017 would have grown to $775,699 which includes $9,534 cash and excludes $769 spent on fees and slippage. |
| iM-FlipSaver 60:40 | 20:80 – 2017: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 8.7%, and for the last 12 months is 8.4%. Over the same period the benchmark E60B40 performance was 7.5% and 8.0% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-FlipSaver 80:20 | 20:80 gained 0.38% at a time when SPY gained 0.30%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 7/16/2015 would have grown to $194,945 which includes $374 cash and excludes $5,614 spent on fees and slippage. | |
| iM-FlipSaver 70:30 | 20:80 – 2017: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 10.1%, and for the last 12 months is 9.8%. Over the same period the benchmark E60B40 performance was 7.5% and 8.0% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-FlipSaver 70:30 | 20:80 gained 0.28% at a time when SPY gained 0.30%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 7/15/2015 would have grown to $205,639 which includes $830 cash and excludes $5,886 spent on fees and slippage. | |
| iM-FlipSaver 80:20 | 20:80 – 2017: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 11.5%, and for the last 12 months is 11.2%. Over the same period the benchmark E60B40 performance was 7.5% and 8.0% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-FlipSaver 80:20 | 20:80 gained 0.20% at a time when SPY gained 0.30%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/2/2017 would have grown to $216,503 which includes $60 cash and excludes $6,150 spent on fees and slippage. | |
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iM-5HedgeFundSelect: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 906.83% while the benchmark SPY gained 346.42% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-5HedgeFundSelect gained -2.28% at a time when SPY gained -0.14%. A starting capital of $25,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $251,708 which includes $10,739 cash and excludes $3,606 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-10LargeHedgeFundSelect: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 672.78% while the benchmark SPY gained 346.42% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-10LargeHedgeFundSelect gained -2.37% at a time when SPY gained -0.14%. A starting capital of $25,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $182,747 which includes -$10,431 cash and excludes $2,096 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-Top5(QQQ)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 1962.67% while the benchmark SPY gained 346.42% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(QQQ)Select gained 1.67% at a time when SPY gained -0.14%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $2,062,674 which includes $14,846 cash and excludes $36,090 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-Top5(XLB)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 291.12% while the benchmark SPY gained 346.42% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLB)Select gained 0.95% at a time when SPY gained -0.14%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $391,121 which includes $3,848 cash and excludes $18,262 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-Top5(XLI)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 468.09% while the benchmark SPY gained 346.42% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLI)Select gained 5.68% at a time when SPY gained -0.14%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $568,094 which includes $634 cash and excludes $10,234 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-Top5(XLK)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 1092.99% while the benchmark SPY gained 346.42% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLK)Select gained 4.09% at a time when SPY gained -0.14%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $1,192,994 which includes $457 cash and excludes $3,952 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-Top5(XLP)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 262.02% while the benchmark SPY gained 346.42% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLP)Select gained 1.46% at a time when SPY gained -0.14%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $362,022 which includes -$986 cash and excludes $3,653 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-Top5(XLV)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 425.32% while the benchmark SPY gained 346.42% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLV)Select gained 2.80% at a time when SPY gained -0.14%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $525,319 which includes $1,243 cash and excludes $20,953 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-Top5(XLU)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 214.20% while the benchmark SPY gained 346.42% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLU)Select gained 4.23% at a time when SPY gained -0.14%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $314,202 which includes $3,811 cash and excludes $19,252 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-Top5(XLY)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 348.53% while the benchmark SPY gained 346.42% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLY)Select gained -0.93% at a time when SPY gained -0.14%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $448,525 which includes $480 cash and excludes $8,975 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-Seasonal Super-Sectors (Top5 combo) : Since inception, on 11/17/2020, the model gained 159.86% while the benchmark SPY gained 131.74% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Seasonal Super-Sectors (Top5 combo) gained 2.86% at a time when SPY gained -0.14%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 11/17/2020 would have grown to $259,864 which includes $1,739 cash and excludes $00 spent on fees and slippage. |
| iM-Dividend Growth Portfolio: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 31.7%, and for the last 12 months is 31.0%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 13.1% and 14.2% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Dividend Growth Portfolio gained 1.24% at a time when SPY gained -0.14%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $701,464 which includes $2,279 cash and excludes $16,095 spent on fees and slippage. | |
| iM-Gold Momentum Timer (AU, NEM, SBSW): The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -16.5%, and for the last 12 months is 7.0%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 13.1% and 14.2% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Gold Momentum Timer (AU, NEM, SBSW) gained -6.49% at a time when SPY gained -0.14%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to -$27,095 which includes $306,772 cash and excludes Gain to date spent on fees and slippage. | |
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iM-ModSum/YieldCurve Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 9.6%, and for the last 12 months is 9.1%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 13.1% and 14.2% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-PortSum/YieldCurve Timer gained -0.14% at a time when SPY gained -0.14%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/1/2016 would have grown to $419,567 which includes $144 cash and excludes $2,605 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-Best10(VDIGX)-Trader: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 4.0%, and for the last 12 months is 5.6%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 13.1% and 14.2% respectively. Since inception, on 7/1/2014, the model gained 287.44% while the benchmark SPY gained 379.21% and VDIGX gained -100.00% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Best10(VDIGX) gained 0.98% at a time when SPY gained -0.14%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 7/1/2014 would have grown to $387,440 which includes $1,378 cash and excludes $5,836 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM 6-Stock Capital Strength Portfolio: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 34.2%, and for the last 12 months is 35.4%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 13.1% and 14.2% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM 6-Stock Capital Strength Portfolio gained 2.78% at a time when SPY gained -0.14%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 10/28/2016 would have grown to $344,781 which includes $1,578 cash and excludes $4,946 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-Best12(USMV)-Trader: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 20.7%, and for the last 12 months is 23.8%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 13.1% and 14.2% respectively. Since inception, on 6/30/2014, the model gained 415.77% while the benchmark SPY gained 379.21% and the ETF USMV gained -100.00% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Best12(USMV)-Trader gained 0.56% at a time when SPY gained -0.14%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2014 would have grown to $515,772 which includes $1,734 cash and excludes $9,286 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-Min Volatility(USMV) Investor (Tax Efficient): The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 23.2%, and for the last 12 months is 23.8%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 13.1% and 14.2% respectively. Since inception, on 1/3/2013, the model gained 1366.26% while the benchmark SPY gained 561.50% and the ETF USMV gained -100.00% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Best12(USMV)Q1 gained -0.10% at a time when SPY gained -0.14%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/3/2013 would have grown to $1,466,258 which includes $166 cash and excludes $18,626 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-Bond Market Trader (High-Yield Bond or 10-yr Treasury Bond): The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -1.2%, and for the last 12 months is -1.6%. Over the same period the benchmark BND performance was -0.8% and -1.1% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Bond Market Trader (High-Yield Bond or 10-yr Treasury Bond) gained 1.13% at a time when BND gained 0.95%. A starting capital of $10,000 at inception on 1/3/2000 would have grown to $147,373 which includes $2,492 cash and excludes $2,977 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-ModSum/YieldCurve Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 9.6%, and for the last 12 months is 9.1%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 13.1% and 14.2% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-PortSum/YieldCurve Timer gained -0.14% at a time when SPY gained -0.14%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/1/2016 would have grown to $419,567 which includes $144 cash and excludes $2,605 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-Best2 MC-Score ETF System: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 13.2%, and for the last 12 months is 12.7%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 13.1% and 14.2% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Best2 MC-Score ETF System gained 1.48% at a time when SPY gained -0.14%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $212,958 which includes $2,974 cash and excludes $5,779 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-Best4 MC-Score Vanguard System: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 5.5%, and for the last 12 months is 2.8%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 13.1% and 14.2% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Best4 MC-Score Vanguard System gained 1.66% at a time when SPY gained -0.14%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $192,943 which includes $8,854 cash and excludes $00 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-Composite (SPY-IEF) Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 14.4%, and for the last 12 months is 13.9%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 13.1% and 14.2% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Composite (SPY-IEF) Timer gained -0.14% at a time when SPY gained -0.14%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $247,840 which includes $2,156 cash and excludes $8,651 spent on fees and slippage. |
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iM-Composite(Gold-Stocks-Bond) Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -7.8%, and for the last 12 months is -3.2%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 13.1% and 14.2% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Composite(Gold-Stocks-Bond) Timer gained 1.47% at a time when SPY gained -0.14%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $372,424 which includes -$556 cash and excludes $11,611 spent on fees and slippage. |
October 29, 2026
iM-Business Cycle Index
The BCI is not signalling a recession
October 30, 2026
Stock-markets:
The MAC-US model is invested since mid June 2025,
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To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 11-27-2026 16:00 UTC, or please login or register
To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 11-27-2026 16:00 UTC, or please login or register
The MAC-AU model is dis-invested from the Australian stock market sine end April 2025.
This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations.
Recession:
BCIg is not signaling a recession.
The growth of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator does not signal a recession.
The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (FRR2-10) is no longer inverted and the curve is steepening.
A description of this indicator can be found here.
The iM-Low Frequency Timer switched to bonds on 9/26/2022.
A description of this indicator can be found here.
October 30, 2026
Bond-market:
To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 11-27-2026 16:00 UTC, or please login or register
The Yield Curve:
To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 11-27-2026 16:00 UTC, or please login or register
Silver:
iM Sytems, Performance Reports
May 8, 2026
iM-Best Systems Performance (R2G and others)
Performance comparison of the iM-Best models hosted on P123 and on iMarketSignals.
iM-FlipSavers
Performance graphs for iM-FlipSavers
iM-SuperTimer
Performance graphs for iM-3mo-SuperTimer(SPY-IEF)
Performance graphs for iM-1mo-SuperTimer(SPY-IEF)
Performance graphs for iM-1wk-SuperTimer(SPY-IEF)
Monthly Updates
May 8, 2026
Unemployment
The 5/8/2026 BLS Employment Situation Report reports that the April 2026 unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.3%.
Our UER model does signal a recession with a near zero recession probability of (see graph).
CAPE-Cycle-ID
Fig 9a depicts the CAPE-Cycle-ID and the year-on-year rate-of-change of the Shiller CAPE; the level switched from -2 to 0 end of June 2023 generating a buy signal. This indicator now invested in the markets. This indicator is described here.
To avoid the bear market, exit stocks when the spread between the 5-month and 25-month moving averages of S&P-real becomes negative and simultaneously the CAPE-Cycle-ID score is 0 or -2. (read more)
Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns
The estimated forward 10‐year annualized real return is 4.7% (previous month 5.0%) with a 95% confidence interval 3.3% to 6.2% (3.6% to 6.5%). Also refer to the Realized Forward 10-Year Returns vs. Inflation Rate 
We may be in a rising inflation period with a falling CAPE-MA35 ratio similar to 1964-1973. This implies very low or negative 10 year forward annualized real returns, much lower than the returns indicated by regression analysis shown in the Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns.
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iM-GT Timer
The iM-GT Timer, based on Google Search Trends volume indicator is not invested in the stock markets since beginning November 2025. This indicator is described here.
Trade Weighted USD
Will be updated later, the weekly FRED data series we used was discontinued and replacement series is daily and runs from 2015. We need to adapt our software and graphics first.
TIAA Real Estate Account
The 1-year rolling return is =1.88% (previous month 2.26%) and is invested in the TIAA Real Estate Account since beginning May 2025.