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iM-feesWe offer three categories of membership – bronze, silver and gold at $20, $40 and $80 per month respectively, or discounted on a per year basis. The table to the left (just click on it) lists what you can access depending on the membership level you choose. All information not listed will remain free, however selected key articles could in future be restricted to a paid membership category.

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Friday’s Weekly Update
Thursday’s Business Cycle Index

Most Recent Updates

Model Performance Tables: Jan 22, 2020

Business Cycle Index: Jan 23, 2020

Weekly Macro Signals: Jan 17, 2020

iM System Performance Jan 10, 2020

Monthly Update: Jan 10, 2020

 

January 19, 2020

iM-Best Holdings

Your Membership category does not entitle you to view any of the iM-Best model holdings

January 22, 2020

Performance-wk-1-22-2020 Performance-mth-1-22-2020 Out of sample performance summary of our models for the past 1, 2, 4 and 13 week periods. The active active return indicates how the models over- or underperformed the benchmark ETF SPY. Also the YTD, and the 1-, 3-, 5- and 10-year annualized returns are shown in the second table
iM-FlipSaver 60:40 | 20:80 – 2017: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 2.1%, and for the last 12 months is 16.8%. Over the same period the benchmark E60B40 performance was 2.1% and 19.6% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-FlipSaver 80:20 | 20:80 gained 0.75% at a time when SPY gained 0.80%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 7/16/2015 would have grown to $132,190 which includes $552 cash and excludes $1,278 spent on fees and slippage.
iM-FlipSaver 70:30 | 20:80 – 2017: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 2.3%, and for the last 12 months is 17.8%. Over the same period the benchmark E60B40 performance was 2.1% and 19.6% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-FlipSaver 70:30 | 20:80 gained 0.84% at a time when SPY gained 0.80%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 7/15/2015 would have grown to $135,680 which includes $466 cash and excludes $1,408 spent on fees and slippage.
iM-FlipSaver 80:20 | 20:80 – 2017: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 2.5%, and for the last 12 months is 18.8%. Over the same period the benchmark E60B40 performance was 2.1% and 19.6% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-FlipSaver 80:20 | 20:80 gained 0.92% at a time when SPY gained 0.80%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/2/2017 would have grown to $139,175 which includes $517 cash and excludes $1,531 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireSilver
iM-Best(SPY-SH).R1: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 2.9%, and for the last 12 months is 13.8%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 2.9% and 26.7% respectively.. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/2/2009 would have grown to $729,623 which includes -$1,556 cash and excludes $22,629 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireSilver
iM-Combo3.R1: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 2.8%, and for the last 12 months is 13.4%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 2.9% and 26.7% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Combo3.R1 gained 1.79% at a time when SPY gained 1.02%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 2/3/2014 would have grown to $181,989 which includes $2,407 cash and excludes $5,519 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold
iM-Combo5: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 3.4%, and for the last 12 months is 21.3%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 2.9% and 26.7% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Combo5 gained 1.18% at a time when SPY gained 1.02%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 2/22/2016 would have grown to $159,314 which includes $35,679 cash and excludes $0 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireSilver8-1.VDIGXtrade-1-22-2020
iM-Best10(VDIGX)-Trader: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 2.9%, and for the last 12 months is 30.3%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 2.9% and 26.7% respectively. Since inception, on 7/1/2014, the model gained 151.98% while the benchmark SPY gained 88.61% and VDIGX gained 90.10% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Best10(VDIGX) gained 1.53% at a time when SPY gained 1.02%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 7/1/2014 would have grown to $251,981 which includes $226 cash and excludes $2,728 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold
iM 6-Stock Capital Strength Portfolio: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 2.3%, and for the last 12 months is 15.4%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 2.9% and 26.7% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM 6-Stock Capital Strength Portfolio gained 0.78% at a time when SPY gained 1.02%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 10/28/2016 would have grown to $181,738 which includes $3,123 cash and excludes $1,118 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold7-1.USMVtrade-1-22-2020
iM-Best12(USMV)-Trader: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 2.3%, and for the last 12 months is 32.3%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 2.9% and 26.7% respectively. Since inception, on 6/30/2014, the model gained 140.36% while the benchmark SPY gained 88.61% and the ETF USMV gained 103.61% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Best12(USMV)-Trader gained 1.61% at a time when SPY gained 1.02%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2014 would have grown to $240,362 which includes $234 cash and excludes $6,087 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold13-1.MinVolUSMVInv-1-22-2020
iM-Min Volatility(USMV) Investor (Tax Efficient): The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 4.4%, and for the last 12 months is 25.5%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 2.9% and 26.7% respectively. Since inception, on 1/3/2013, the model gained 280.20% while the benchmark SPY gained 160.35% and the ETF USMV gained 164.37% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Best12(USMV)Q1 gained 2.01% at a time when SPY gained 1.02%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/3/2013 would have grown to $380,204 which includes $889 cash and excludes $2,394 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold
iM-Bond Market Trader (High-Yield Bond or 10-yr Treasury Bond): The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 3.6%, and for the last 12 months is 18.8%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 2.9% and 26.7% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Bond Market Trader (High-Yield Bond or 10-yr Treasury Bond) gained 0.34% at a time when BND gained 0.48%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 10/30/2016 would have grown to $150,613 which includes $5,460 cash and excludes $1,985 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold
iM-Best(Short): The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -0.5%, and for the last 12 months is -3.5%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 2.9% and 26.7% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Best(Short) gained 0.81% at a time when SPY gained 1.02%. Over the period 1/2/2009 to 1/21/2020 the starting capital of $100,000 would have grown to $80,078 which includes $95,895 cash and excludes $27,094 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireSilver
iM-Best2 MC-Score ETF System: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 2.5%, and for the last 12 months is 18.2%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 2.9% and 26.7% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Best2 MC-Score ETF System gained 1.81% at a time when SPY gained 1.02%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $128,889 which includes $54 cash and excludes $676 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireSilver
iM-Best4 MC-Score Vanguard System: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 1.7%, and for the last 12 months is 18.3%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 2.9% and 26.7% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Best4 MC-Score Vanguard System gained 1.38% at a time when SPY gained 1.02%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $131,989 which includes $363 cash and excludes $00 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold
iM-Composite (SH-RSP) Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 1.8%, and for the last 12 months is 20.6%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 2.9% and 26.7% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Composite (SH-RSP) Timer gained 1.01% at a time when SPY gained 1.02%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $156,144 which includes $6,988 cash and excludes $513 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold
iM-Composite (SPY-IEF) Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 2.9%, and for the last 12 months is 19.9%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 2.9% and 26.7% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Composite (SPY-IEF) Timer gained 1.00% at a time when SPY gained 1.02%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $168,072 which includes $2,753 cash and excludes $3,393 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold
iM-VIX Timer with ZIV: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 4.7%, and for the last 12 months is 4.3%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 2.9% and 26.7% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-VIX Timer with ZIV gained 2.02% at a time when SPY gained 1.02%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $194,640 which includes $817 cash and excludes $7,434 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold
iM-Composite(Gold-Stocks-Bond) Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 1.5%, and for the last 12 months is 18.9%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 2.9% and 26.7% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Composite(Gold-Stocks-Bond) Timer gained 0.94% at a time when SPY gained 1.02%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $132,209 which includes $124 cash and excludes $4,640 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold
iM-Low Turnover Composite Timer Combo: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 1.4%, and for the last 12 months is 16.8%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 2.9% and 26.7% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Low Turnover Composite Timer Combo gained 1.19% at a time when SPY gained 1.02%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 3/24/27 would have grown to $114,131 which includes $389 cash and excludes $1,693 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold
iM-5ETF Trader (includes leveraged ETFs): The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 3.6%, and for the last 12 months is 18.8%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 2.9% and 26.7% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-5ETF Trader (includes leveraged ETFs) gained 2.03% at a time when SPY gained 1.02%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 10/30/2016 would have grown to $163,067 which includes $1,489 cash and excludes $3,569 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold
iM-Standard 5ETF Trader (excludes leveraged ETFs): The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 3.6%, and for the last 12 months is 19.7%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 2.9% and 26.7% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Standard 5ETF Trader (excludes leveraged ETFs) gained 1.67% at a time when SPY gained 1.02%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 10/30/2016 would have grown to $140,772 which includes $1,417 cash and excludes $3,330 spent on fees and slippage.



January 23, 2020

 

Business Cycle Index

BCI-1-23-2020 The BCI at 262.1 is up from last week’s 261.1, and is near  the previous   high for this business cycle indicated by the BCIp of 99.4.    However, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 10.2  is below  last week’s 10.4.

Both BCIp and BCIg are not signaling a recession.

 

 

 



January 17, 2020

Market Signals Summary:

The MAC-US model, iM-Low Frequency Timer, and the S&P500 Coppock are invested in the markets, as is  the “3-mo Hi-Lo Index of the S&P500” which entered the market on 10/22/2018. The MAC-AU is also invested in the markets. The recession indicators COMP and iM-BCIg do not signal a recession. The bond market model avoids high beta (long) bonds, and the yield curve is steepening. The gold Coppock remains invested in gold, however the silver model is in cash. The iM-Gold Timer is in cash.

The monthly iM-Google Trend Timer is invested since 12/1/2019.

 

Stock-markets:

Fig-2.-1-17-2020The MAC-US model switched into the markets on 2/26/2019. The sell-spread (red line) is above last week’s value and needs to move below zero to generate a sell signal.

 

 

 

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To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 02-14-2020 16:00 (New York), or please login or register
Fig-2.1-1-17-2020The MAC-AU model is invested in the markets after signaling a a buy on February 7, 2019. The sell-spread (red line) is above last week’s value and needs to move below zero to generate a sell signal.

This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations.

 

Recession:

Fig-3.-1-17-2020Figure 3 shows the COMP above last week’s revised level. No recession is indicated. COMP can be used for stock market exit timing as discussed in this article The Use of Recession Indicators in Stock Market Timing.

 

Fig-3.1-1-17-2020Figure 3.1 shows the recession indicator iM-BCIg below last week’s level. An imminent recession is not signaled .

Please also refer to the BCI page

 

 

Fig-3.2-1-17-2020The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (FRR2-10) is at last week’s level and is not signaling a recession.

A description of this indicator can be found here.

 

Fig-3.3-1-17-2020The iM-Low Frequency Timer is back in the markets since 1/22/2019.

A description of this indicator can be found here.



January 17, 2020

Bond-market:

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The Yield Curve:

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Silver:

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iM Sytems, Performance Reports

January 10, 2020

iM-Best Systems Performance (R2G and others)

Performance-mth-1-10-2020Performance comparison of the iM-Best  models hosted on P123 and on iMarketSignals. Links to the description and to the models can be found  here

 

 

iM-FlipSavers

Fig-fs.-1-10-2020 Performance graphs for iM-FlipSavers

 

 

 

iM-SuperTimer

im3mo-st-1-10-2020 Performance graphs for iM-3mo-SuperTimer(SPY-IEF)

 

 

 

im1mo-st-1-10-2020 Performance graphs for iM-1mo-SuperTimer(SPY-IEF)

 

 

 

im1wk-st-1-10-2020 Performance graphs for iM-1wk-SuperTimer(SPY-IEF)

 

 

 



Monthly Updates

January 10, 2020

Unemployment

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The Dynamic Linearly Detrended Enhanced Aggregate Spread:

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CAPE-Cycle-ID

Fig-9a-1-10-2020Fig 9a depicts the CAPE-Cycle-ID and the year-on-year rate-of-change of the Shiller CAPE;  the level switched from 0 to +2 end of October-2019. This indicator is described here.

To avoid the bear market, exit stocks when the spread between the 5-month and 25-month moving averages of S&P-real becomes negative and simultaneously the CAPE-Cycle-ID score is 0 or -2. (read more)

 

Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns

Fig-9b-1-10-2020The estimated forward 10‐year annualized real return decreased to 5.9% (previous 6.1) with a 95% confidence interval : 4.5% to 7.3 (previous 4.7% to 7.5%).

 

 

iM-GT Timer

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Trade Weighted USD

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TIAA Real Estate Account

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