The Previous Updates
November 6, 2025
iM-Business Cycle Index
Updates delayed due to government shutdown
October 2, 2025
iM-Business Cycle Index
BCIw is not signaling a recession, nor does the BCIg.
November 7, 2025
Stock-markets:
The MAC-US model is invested since mid June 2025,
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The MAC-AU model is dis-invested from the Australian stock market sine end April 2025.
This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations.
Recession:
BCIg is not signaling a recession.
The growth of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator does not signal a recession.
The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (FRR2-10) is no longer inverted and the curve is steepening.
A description of this indicator can be found here.
The iM-Low Frequency Timer switched to bonds on 9/26/2022.
A description of this indicator can be found here.
October 3, 2025
Market Signals Summary:
The iM-Google Trend is dis-invested from the markets, whereas the MAC-US, 3-Month Hi-Lo Index Index, S&P 500 Coppock Indicator, and CAPE-Cycle-ID are invested The BCIg does not signal a recession as does the growth of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator. The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2 and 10 is no longer inverted and the curve is steepening. The iM-Gold Coppock and the iM-Gold Timer are invested in gold. The iM-Silver Coppock is invested in silver.
Stock-markets:
The MAC-US model is invested since mid June 2025,
.
The 3-mo Hi-Lo Index Index of the S&P500 is at 6.14% (last week 4.95%) and is invested in the markets..
The Coppock indicator for the S&P500 invested the the US stock markets mid August 2024. This indicator is described here.
The MAC-AU model is dis-invested from the Australian stock market sine end April 2025.
This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations.
Recession:
BCIg is not signaling a recession.
The growth of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator does not signal a recession.
The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (FRR2-10) is no longer inverted and the curve is steepening.
A description of this indicator can be found here.
The iM-Low Frequency Timer switched to bonds on 9/26/2022.
A description of this indicator can be found here.
Monthly Updates
November 7, 2025
Unemployment
The 9/1/2025 BLS Employment Situation Report reports that the August 2025 unemployment rate increased by 0.1% to 4.23%. This value is adopted for the September and October unemployment rate
Our UER model does signal a recession with a recession probability of 40% (see graph).
CAPE-Cycle-ID
Fig 9a depicts the CAPE-Cycle-ID and the year-on-year rate-of-change of the Shiller CAPE; the level switched from -2 to 0 end of June 2023 generating a buy signal. This indicator now invested in the markets. This indicator is described here.
To avoid the bear market, exit stocks when the spread between the 5-month and 25-month moving averages of S&P-real becomes negative and simultaneously the CAPE-Cycle-ID score is 0 or -2. (read more)
Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns
The estimated forward 10‐year annualized real return is 4.3% (previous month 4.4%) with a 95% confidence interval 2.8% to 5.8% (3.0% to 5.0%). Also refer to the Realized Forward 10-Year Returns vs. Inflation Rate 
We may be in a rising inflation period with a falling CAPE-MA35 ratio similar to 1964-1973. This implies very low or negative 10 year forward annualized real returns, much lower than the returns indicated by regression analysis shown in the Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns.
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iM-GT Timer
The iM-GT Timer, based on Google Search Trends volume indicator is invested in the stock markets since beginning November 2025. This indicator is described here.
Trade Weighted USD
Will be updated later, the weekly FRED data series we used was discontinued and replacement series is daily and runs from 2015. We need to adapt our software and graphics first.
TIAA Real Estate Account
October 3, 2025
Unemployment
The 9/1/2025 BLS Employment Situation Report reports that the August 2025 unemployment rate increased by 0.1% to 4.23%. This value is adopted for the September unemployment rate
Our UER model does signal a recession with a recession probability of 40% (see graph).
CAPE-Cycle-ID
Fig 9a depicts the CAPE-Cycle-ID and the year-on-year rate-of-change of the Shiller CAPE; the level switched from -2 to 0 end of June 2023 generating a buy signal. This indicator now invested in the markets. This indicator is described here.
To avoid the bear market, exit stocks when the spread between the 5-month and 25-month moving averages of S&P-real becomes negative and simultaneously the CAPE-Cycle-ID score is 0 or -2. (read more)
Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns
The estimated forward 10‐year annualized real return is 4.4% (previous month 4.7%) with a 95% confidence interval 3.0% to 5.9% (3.2% to 6.1%). Also refer to the Realized Forward 10-Year Returns vs. Inflation Rate 
We may be in a rising inflation period with a falling CAPE-MA35 ratio similar to 1964-1973. This implies very low or negative 10 year forward annualized real returns, much lower than the returns indicated by regression analysis shown in the Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns.
.
iM-GT Timer
The iM-GT Timer, based on Google Search Trends volume indicator exited the stock markets beginning December 2024. This indicator is described here.
Trade Weighted USD
Will be updated later, the weekly FRED data series we used was discontinued and replacement series is daily and runs from 2015. We need to adapt our software and graphics first.
TIAA Real Estate Account
The 1-year rolling return is =2.9% (previous month 2.7%) and is invested in the TIAA Real Estate Account since beginning May 2025.