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iM-Business Cycle Index

   The BCI is not signalling a recession

 

 

	Out of sample performance summary of our models for the past 1, 2, 4 and 13 week periods. The active active return indicates how the models over- or underperformed the benchmark ETF SPY. Also the YTD, and the 1-, 3-, 5- and 10-year annualized returns are shown in the second table
	iM-Inflation Attuned Multi-Model Market Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 9.1%, and for the last 12 months is 13.1%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 12.2% and 17.0% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Inflation Attuned Multi-Model Market Timer gained -0.05% at a time when SPY gained -1.21%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 3/24/2017 would have grown to $167,050,672 which includes $3,098,198 cash and excludes $4,103,439 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Conference Board LEIg Timer: The model’s performance YTD is 14.3%, and for the last 12 months is 7.3%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 20.1% and 9.4% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Conference Board LEIg Timer gained -1.01% at a time when SPY gained -1.21%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 4/5/2017 would have grown to $760,875 which includes $6,308 cash and excludes $769 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-FlipSaver 60:40 | 20:80 – 2017: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 8.2%, and for the last 12 months is 8.8%. Over the same period the benchmark E60B40 performance was 6.7% and 9.8% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-FlipSaver 80:20 | 20:80 gained -1.23% at a time when SPY gained -1.16%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 7/16/2015 would have grown to $194,004 which includes $64 cash and excludes $5,614 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-FlipSaver 70:30 | 20:80 – 2017: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 9.5%, and for the last 12 months is 10.2%. Over the same period the benchmark E60B40 performance was 6.7% and 9.8% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-FlipSaver 70:30 | 20:80 gained -1.26% at a time when SPY gained -1.16%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 7/15/2015 would have grown to $204,642 which includes $453 cash and excludes $5,886 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-FlipSaver 80:20 | 20:80 – 2017: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 10.9%, and for the last 12 months is 11.6%. Over the same period the benchmark E60B40 performance was 6.7% and 9.8% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-FlipSaver 80:20 | 20:80 gained -1.27% at a time when SPY gained -1.16%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/2/2017 would have grown to $215,400 which includes $2,109 cash and excludes $6,148 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-5HedgeFundSelect: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 968.24% while the benchmark SPY gained 342.70% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-5HedgeFundSelect gained -3.15% at a time when SPY gained -1.21%. A starting capital of $25,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $267,060 which includes $2,222 cash and excludes $3,481 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-10LargeHedgeFundSelect: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 716.58% while the benchmark SPY gained 342.70% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-10LargeHedgeFundSelect gained -2.61% at a time when SPY gained -1.21%. A starting capital of $25,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $193,695 which includes -$10,235 cash and excludes $2,030 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(QQQ)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 1976.80% while the benchmark SPY gained 342.70% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(QQQ)Select gained -1.31% at a time when SPY gained -1.21%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $2,076,799 which includes -$27,079 cash and excludes $35,396 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLB)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 299.51% while the benchmark SPY gained 342.70% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLB)Select gained -3.42% at a time when SPY gained -1.21%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $399,506 which includes $3,848 cash and excludes $18,262 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLI)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 439.57% while the benchmark SPY gained 342.70% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLI)Select gained -2.22% at a time when SPY gained -1.21%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $539,565 which includes $2,932 cash and excludes $10,212 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLK)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 1049.55% while the benchmark SPY gained 342.70% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLK)Select gained 0.33% at a time when SPY gained -1.21%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $1,149,546 which includes $3,728 cash and excludes $3,886 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLP)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 243.94% while the benchmark SPY gained 342.70% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLP)Select gained -2.02% at a time when SPY gained -1.21%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $343,936 which includes $2,488 cash and excludes $3,557 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLV)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 395.67% while the benchmark SPY gained 342.70% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLV)Select gained -3.15% at a time when SPY gained -1.21%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $495,674 which includes -$10,939 cash and excludes $20,936 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLU)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 202.27% while the benchmark SPY gained 342.70% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLU)Select gained -2.32% at a time when SPY gained -1.21%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $302,274 which includes $2,174 cash and excludes $19,252 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLY)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 350.87% while the benchmark SPY gained 342.70% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLY)Select gained -3.06% at a time when SPY gained -1.21%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $450,875 which includes -$2,918 cash and excludes $8,820 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Seasonal Super-Sectors (Top5 combo) : Since inception, on 11/17/2020, the model gained 152.02% while the benchmark SPY gained 129.81% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Seasonal Super-Sectors (Top5 combo) gained -1.31% at a time when SPY gained -1.21%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 11/17/2020 would have grown to $252,023 which includes -$565 cash and excludes $00 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Dividend Growth Portfolio: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 31.1%, and for the last 12 months is 30.6%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 12.2% and 17.0% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Dividend Growth Portfolio gained -1.75% at a time when SPY gained -1.21%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $698,285 which includes $2,868 cash and excludes $16,076 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Gold Momentum Timer (AU, NEM, SBSW): The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -3.7%, and for the last 12 months is 59.2%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 12.2% and 17.0% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Gold Momentum Timer (AU, NEM, SBSW) gained -7.99% at a time when SPY gained -1.21%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to -$36,319 which includes $291,235 cash and excludes Gain to date spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-ModSum/YieldCurve Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 8.6%, and for the last 12 months is 9.1%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 12.2% and 17.0% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-PortSum/YieldCurve Timer gained -1.21% at a time when SPY gained -1.21%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/1/2016 would have grown to $416,072 which includes -$891 cash and excludes $2,605 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Best10(VDIGX)-Trader: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -2.4%, and for the last 12 months is 0.0%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 12.2% and 17.0% respectively. Since inception, on 7/1/2014, the model gained 263.60% while the benchmark SPY gained 375.21% and VDIGX gained -100.00% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Best10(VDIGX) gained -0.75% at a time when SPY gained -1.21%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 7/1/2014 would have grown to $363,602 which includes $825 cash and excludes $5,808 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM 6-Stock Capital Strength Portfolio: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 29.5%, and for the last 12 months is 28.2%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 12.2% and 17.0% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM 6-Stock Capital Strength Portfolio gained 0.98% at a time when SPY gained -1.21%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 10/28/2016 would have grown to $332,566 which includes $2,093 cash and excludes $4,732 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Best12(USMV)-Trader: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 22.4%, and for the last 12 months is 26.5%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 12.2% and 17.0% respectively. Since inception, on 6/30/2014, the model gained 422.87% while the benchmark SPY gained 375.21% and the ETF USMV gained -100.00% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Best12(USMV)-Trader gained -0.98% at a time when SPY gained -1.21%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2014 would have grown to $522,869 which includes $1,554 cash and excludes $9,199 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Min Volatility(USMV) Investor (Tax Efficient): The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 21.1%, and for the last 12 months is 24.6%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 12.2% and 17.0% respectively. Since inception, on 1/3/2013, the model gained 1341.34% while the benchmark SPY gained 555.99% and the ETF USMV gained -100.00% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Best12(USMV)Q1 gained -1.63% at a time when SPY gained -1.21%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/3/2013 would have grown to $1,441,341 which includes -$340 cash and excludes $18,062 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Bond Market Trader (High-Yield Bond or 10-yr Treasury Bond): The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -1.7%, and for the last 12 months is -1.3%. Over the same period the benchmark BND performance was -1.3% and -0.7% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Bond Market Trader (High-Yield Bond or 10-yr Treasury Bond) gained -1.41% at a time when BND gained -1.08%. A starting capital of $10,000 at inception on 1/3/2000 would have grown to $146,582 which includes $2,004 cash and excludes $2,977 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-ModSum/YieldCurve Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 8.6%, and for the last 12 months is 9.1%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 12.2% and 17.0% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-PortSum/YieldCurve Timer gained -1.21% at a time when SPY gained -1.21%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/1/2016 would have grown to $416,072 which includes -$891 cash and excludes $2,605 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Best2 MC-Score ETF System: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 8.7%, and for the last 12 months is 8.2%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 12.2% and 17.0% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Best2 MC-Score ETF System gained -0.39% at a time when SPY gained -1.21%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $204,512 which includes $2,002 cash and excludes $5,779 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Best4 MC-Score Vanguard System: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 3.9%, and for the last 12 months is 3.5%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 12.2% and 17.0% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Best4 MC-Score Vanguard System gained -1.56% at a time when SPY gained -1.21%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $190,070 which includes $7,671 cash and excludes $00 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Composite (SPY-IEF) Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 13.5%, and for the last 12 months is 13.9%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 12.2% and 17.0% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Composite (SPY-IEF) Timer gained -1.20% at a time when SPY gained -1.21%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $245,792 which includes $1,550 cash and excludes $8,651 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Composite(Gold-Stocks-Bond) Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -5.8%, and for the last 12 months is 11.3%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 12.2% and 17.0% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Composite(Gold-Stocks-Bond) Timer gained -3.42% at a time when SPY gained -1.21%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $380,480 which includes $110 cash and excludes $10,872 spent on fees and slippage.

 

iM-Business Cycle Index

   The BCI is not signalling a recession

 

 

	Out of sample performance summary of our models for the past 1, 2, 4 and 13 week periods. The active active return indicates how the models over- or underperformed the benchmark ETF SPY. Also the YTD, and the 1-, 3-, 5- and 10-year annualized returns are shown in the second table
	iM-Inflation Attuned Multi-Model Market Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 9.9%, and for the last 12 months is 15.8%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 12.9% and 19.7% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Inflation Attuned Multi-Model Market Timer gained 0.17% at a time when SPY gained 0.55%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 3/24/2017 would have grown to $168,327,935 which includes $3,098,198 cash and excludes $4,103,439 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Conference Board LEIg Timer: The model’s performance YTD is 14.3%, and for the last 12 months is 7.3%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 20.1% and 9.4% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Conference Board LEIg Timer gained -0.05% at a time when SPY gained 0.55%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 4/5/2017 would have grown to $763,593 which includes $6,308 cash and excludes $769 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-FlipSaver 60:40 | 20:80 – 2017: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 9.1%, and for the last 12 months is 10.2%. Over the same period the benchmark E60B40 performance was 7.6% and 11.9% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-FlipSaver 80:20 | 20:80 gained 0.49% at a time when SPY gained 0.39%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 7/16/2015 would have grown to $195,792 which includes $64 cash and excludes $5,614 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-FlipSaver 70:30 | 20:80 – 2017: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 10.5%, and for the last 12 months is 11.6%. Over the same period the benchmark E60B40 performance was 7.6% and 11.9% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-FlipSaver 70:30 | 20:80 gained 0.53% at a time when SPY gained 0.39%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 7/15/2015 would have grown to $206,448 which includes $453 cash and excludes $5,886 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-FlipSaver 80:20 | 20:80 – 2017: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 11.8%, and for the last 12 months is 13.0%. Over the same period the benchmark E60B40 performance was 7.6% and 11.9% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-FlipSaver 80:20 | 20:80 gained 0.57% at a time when SPY gained 0.39%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/2/2017 would have grown to $217,206 which includes $2,109 cash and excludes $6,148 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-5HedgeFundSelect: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 988.83% while the benchmark SPY gained 345.65% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-5HedgeFundSelect gained -0.07% at a time when SPY gained 0.55%. A starting capital of $25,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $272,208 which includes $2,336 cash and excludes $3,466 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-10LargeHedgeFundSelect: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 735.47% while the benchmark SPY gained 345.65% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-10LargeHedgeFundSelect gained 1.17% at a time when SPY gained 0.55%. A starting capital of $25,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $198,419 which includes -$10,257 cash and excludes $2,030 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(QQQ)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 1963.77% while the benchmark SPY gained 345.65% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(QQQ)Select gained -1.36% at a time when SPY gained 0.55%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $2,063,772 which includes -$35,962 cash and excludes $34,523 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLB)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 308.74% while the benchmark SPY gained 345.65% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLB)Select gained 0.26% at a time when SPY gained 0.55%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $408,741 which includes $3,848 cash and excludes $18,262 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLI)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 448.28% while the benchmark SPY gained 345.65% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLI)Select gained -1.38% at a time when SPY gained 0.55%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $548,276 which includes $2,932 cash and excludes $10,212 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLK)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 1036.02% while the benchmark SPY gained 345.65% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLK)Select gained 0.05% at a time when SPY gained 0.55%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $1,136,019 which includes $3,728 cash and excludes $3,886 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLP)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 246.36% while the benchmark SPY gained 345.65% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLP)Select gained -0.92% at a time when SPY gained 0.55%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $346,361 which includes $1,395 cash and excludes $3,557 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLV)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 395.63% while the benchmark SPY gained 345.65% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLV)Select gained -4.29% at a time when SPY gained 0.55%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $495,628 which includes -$10,939 cash and excludes $20,936 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLU)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 213.80% while the benchmark SPY gained 345.65% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLU)Select gained 1.02% at a time when SPY gained 0.55%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $313,801 which includes $2,442 cash and excludes $19,237 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLY)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 352.90% while the benchmark SPY gained 345.65% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLY)Select gained -2.28% at a time when SPY gained 0.55%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $452,899 which includes $726 cash and excludes $8,640 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Seasonal Super-Sectors (Top5 combo) : Since inception, on 11/17/2020, the model gained 153.60% while the benchmark SPY gained 131.34% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Seasonal Super-Sectors (Top5 combo) gained -0.30% at a time when SPY gained 0.55%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 11/17/2020 would have grown to $253,603 which includes -$1,281 cash and excludes $00 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Dividend Growth Portfolio: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 33.3%, and for the last 12 months is 31.8%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 12.9% and 19.7% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Dividend Growth Portfolio gained 0.77% at a time when SPY gained 0.55%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $710,088 which includes $2,868 cash and excludes $16,076 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Gold Momentum Timer (AU, NEM, SBSW): The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 3.4%, and for the last 12 months is 64.0%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 12.9% and 19.7% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Gold Momentum Timer (AU, NEM, SBSW) gained -0.28% at a time when SPY gained 0.55%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to -$39,182 which includes $279,853 cash and excludes Gain to date spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-ModSum/YieldCurve Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 9.4%, and for the last 12 months is 9.9%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 12.9% and 19.7% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-PortSum/YieldCurve Timer gained 0.55% at a time when SPY gained 0.55%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/1/2016 would have grown to $418,855 which includes -$891 cash and excludes $2,605 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Best10(VDIGX)-Trader: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -3.5%, and for the last 12 months is -2.0%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 12.9% and 19.7% respectively. Since inception, on 7/1/2014, the model gained 259.57% while the benchmark SPY gained 378.39% and VDIGX gained -100.00% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Best10(VDIGX) gained -2.36% at a time when SPY gained 0.55%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 7/1/2014 would have grown to $359,566 which includes $746 cash and excludes $5,808 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM 6-Stock Capital Strength Portfolio: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 26.7%, and for the last 12 months is 25.6%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 12.9% and 19.7% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM 6-Stock Capital Strength Portfolio gained -2.34% at a time when SPY gained 0.55%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 10/28/2016 would have grown to $325,426 which includes $777 cash and excludes $4,732 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Best12(USMV)-Trader: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 21.7%, and for the last 12 months is 26.8%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 12.9% and 19.7% respectively. Since inception, on 6/30/2014, the model gained 420.02% while the benchmark SPY gained 378.39% and the ETF USMV gained -100.00% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Best12(USMV)-Trader gained 0.26% at a time when SPY gained 0.55%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2014 would have grown to $520,017 which includes $165 cash and excludes $9,108 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Min Volatility(USMV) Investor (Tax Efficient): The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 20.1%, and for the last 12 months is 21.7%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 12.9% and 19.7% respectively. Since inception, on 1/3/2013, the model gained 1329.90% while the benchmark SPY gained 560.37% and the ETF USMV gained -100.00% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Best12(USMV)Q1 gained -3.03% at a time when SPY gained 0.55%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/3/2013 would have grown to $1,429,898 which includes -$340 cash and excludes $18,062 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Bond Market Trader (High-Yield Bond or 10-yr Treasury Bond): The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -0.4%, and for the last 12 months is -0.1%. Over the same period the benchmark BND performance was -0.3% and 0.7% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Bond Market Trader (High-Yield Bond or 10-yr Treasury Bond) gained 0.06% at a time when BND gained 0.14%. A starting capital of $10,000 at inception on 1/3/2000 would have grown to $148,538 which includes $2,004 cash and excludes $2,977 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-ModSum/YieldCurve Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 9.4%, and for the last 12 months is 9.9%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 12.9% and 19.7% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-PortSum/YieldCurve Timer gained 0.55% at a time when SPY gained 0.55%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/1/2016 would have grown to $418,855 which includes -$891 cash and excludes $2,605 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Best2 MC-Score ETF System: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 8.3%, and for the last 12 months is 7.5%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 12.9% and 19.7% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Best2 MC-Score ETF System gained -1.30% at a time when SPY gained 0.55%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $203,755 which includes $2,002 cash and excludes $5,779 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Best4 MC-Score Vanguard System: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 5.5%, and for the last 12 months is 5.8%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 12.9% and 19.7% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Best4 MC-Score Vanguard System gained 0.10% at a time when SPY gained 0.55%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $193,066 which includes $7,671 cash and excludes $00 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Composite (SPY-IEF) Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 14.3%, and for the last 12 months is 14.7%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 12.9% and 19.7% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Composite (SPY-IEF) Timer gained 0.55% at a time when SPY gained 0.55%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $247,423 which includes $1,550 cash and excludes $8,651 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Composite(Gold-Stocks-Bond) Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -4.1%, and for the last 12 months is 14.8%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 12.9% and 19.7% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Composite(Gold-Stocks-Bond) Timer gained 0.74% at a time when SPY gained 0.55%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $387,143 which includes -$51 cash and excludes $10,872 spent on fees and slippage.

	Out of sample performance summary of our models for the past 1, 2, 4 and 13 week periods. The active active return indicates how the models over- or underperformed the benchmark ETF SPY. Also the YTD, and the 1-, 3-, 5- and 10-year annualized returns are shown in the second table
	iM-Inflation Attuned Multi-Model Market Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 0.0%, and for the last 12 months is 11.0%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 9.2% and 21.8% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Inflation Attuned Multi-Model Market Timer gained 1.35% at a time when SPY gained -0.46%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 3/24/2017 would have grown to $153,076,628 which includes $3,098,197 cash and excludes $4,103,439 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Conference Board LEIg Timer: The model’s performance YTD is 14.3%, and for the last 12 months is 7.3%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 20.1% and 9.4% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Conference Board LEIg Timer gained 0.14% at a time when SPY gained -0.46%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 4/5/2017 would have grown to $741,279 which includes $6,308 cash and excludes $769 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-FlipSaver 60:40 | 20:80 – 2017: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 7.6%, and for the last 12 months is 12.8%. Over the same period the benchmark E60B40 performance was 6.0% and 14.8% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-FlipSaver 80:20 | 20:80 gained 0.22% at a time when SPY gained 0.04%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 7/16/2015 would have grown to $193,043 which includes $1,855 cash and excludes $5,611 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-FlipSaver 70:30 | 20:80 – 2017: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 8.6%, and for the last 12 months is 14.0%. Over the same period the benchmark E60B40 performance was 6.0% and 14.8% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-FlipSaver 70:30 | 20:80 gained 0.12% at a time when SPY gained 0.04%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 7/15/2015 would have grown to $202,828 which includes $1,656 cash and excludes $5,884 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-FlipSaver 80:20 | 20:80 – 2017: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 9.5%, and for the last 12 months is 15.2%. Over the same period the benchmark E60B40 performance was 6.0% and 14.8% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-FlipSaver 80:20 | 20:80 gained 0.02% at a time when SPY gained 0.04%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/2/2017 would have grown to $212,649 which includes $1,455 cash and excludes $6,148 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-5HedgeFundSelect: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 1004.93% while the benchmark SPY gained 331.13% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-5HedgeFundSelect gained 0.37% at a time when SPY gained -0.46%. A starting capital of $25,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $276,233 which includes $2,887 cash and excludes $3,440 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-10LargeHedgeFundSelect: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 672.04% while the benchmark SPY gained 331.13% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-10LargeHedgeFundSelect gained -0.76% at a time when SPY gained -0.46%. A starting capital of $25,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $182,561 which includes -$11,048 cash and excludes $1,998 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(QQQ)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 1712.73% while the benchmark SPY gained 331.13% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(QQQ)Select gained 0.64% at a time when SPY gained -0.46%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $1,812,729 which includes $69,864 cash and excludes $31,757 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLB)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 271.09% while the benchmark SPY gained 331.13% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLB)Select gained -0.05% at a time when SPY gained -0.46%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $371,091 which includes $2,098 cash and excludes $17,890 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLI)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 467.24% while the benchmark SPY gained 331.13% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLI)Select gained 3.21% at a time when SPY gained -0.46%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $567,238 which includes $57,564 cash and excludes $9,414 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLK)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 894.53% while the benchmark SPY gained 331.13% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLK)Select gained 0.77% at a time when SPY gained -0.46%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $994,532 which includes $4,964 cash and excludes $3,677 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLP)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 282.78% while the benchmark SPY gained 331.13% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLP)Select gained 11.77% at a time when SPY gained -0.46%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $382,776 which includes $2,470 cash and excludes $3,339 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLV)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 346.46% while the benchmark SPY gained 331.13% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLV)Select gained 4.07% at a time when SPY gained -0.46%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $446,455 which includes $3,110 cash and excludes $20,008 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLU)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 242.48% while the benchmark SPY gained 331.13% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLU)Select gained 3.71% at a time when SPY gained -0.46%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $342,485 which includes $1,292 cash and excludes $18,957 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Top5(XLY)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 390.11% while the benchmark SPY gained 331.13% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLY)Select gained 3.99% at a time when SPY gained -0.46%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $490,110 which includes $1,360 cash and excludes $8,404 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Seasonal Super-Sectors (Top5 combo) : Since inception, on 11/17/2020, the model gained 148.11% while the benchmark SPY gained 123.80% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Seasonal Super-Sectors (Top5 combo) gained 4.31% at a time when SPY gained -0.46%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 11/17/2020 would have grown to $248,109 which includes $5,144 cash and excludes $00 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Dividend Growth Portfolio: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 14.0%, and for the last 12 months is 21.4%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 9.2% and 21.8% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Dividend Growth Portfolio gained -3.32% at a time when SPY gained -0.46%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $607,144 which includes $111,947 cash and excludes $15,265 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Gold Momentum Timer (AU, NEM, SBSW): The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -15.3%, and for the last 12 months is 71.5%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 9.2% and 21.8% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Gold Momentum Timer (AU, NEM, SBSW) gained -6.47% at a time when SPY gained -0.46%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to -$41,686 which includes $255,870 cash and excludes Gain to date spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-ModSum/YieldCurve Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 12.3%, and for the last 12 months is 16.9%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 9.2% and 21.8% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-PortSum/YieldCurve Timer gained 1.12% at a time when SPY gained -0.46%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/1/2016 would have grown to $430,237 which includes $1,897 cash and excludes $2,470 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Best10(VDIGX)-Trader: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -10.0%, and for the last 12 months is -8.1%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 9.2% and 21.8% respectively. Since inception, on 7/1/2014, the model gained 235.08% while the benchmark SPY gained 362.80% and VDIGX gained -100.00% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Best10(VDIGX) gained 4.59% at a time when SPY gained -0.46%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 7/1/2014 would have grown to $335,076 which includes $725 cash and excludes $5,794 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM 6-Stock Capital Strength Portfolio: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 19.1%, and for the last 12 months is 23.2%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 9.2% and 21.8% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM 6-Stock Capital Strength Portfolio gained 0.27% at a time when SPY gained -0.46%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 10/28/2016 would have grown to $305,936 which includes $5,727 cash and excludes $4,594 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Best12(USMV)-Trader: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 14.9%, and for the last 12 months is 25.2%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 9.2% and 21.8% respectively. Since inception, on 6/30/2014, the model gained 390.75% while the benchmark SPY gained 362.80% and the ETF USMV gained 222.00% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Best12(USMV)-Trader gained 2.89% at a time when SPY gained -0.46%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2014 would have grown to $490,748 which includes $4,549 cash and excludes $8,963 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Min Volatility(USMV) Investor (Tax Efficient): The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 9.7%, and for the last 12 months is 21.6%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 9.2% and 21.8% respectively. Since inception, on 1/3/2013, the model gained 1205.22% while the benchmark SPY gained 538.86% and the ETF USMV gained 538.86% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Best12(USMV)Q1 gained -2.39% at a time when SPY gained -0.46%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/3/2013 would have grown to $1,305,215 which includes -$2,642 cash and excludes $18,062 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Bond Market Trader (High-Yield Bond or 10-yr Treasury Bond): The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 1.7%, and for the last 12 months is 3.2%. Over the same period the benchmark BND performance was 1.2% and 4.5% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Bond Market Trader (High-Yield Bond or 10-yr Treasury Bond) gained 1.12% at a time when BND gained 0.78%. A starting capital of $10,000 at inception on 1/3/2000 would have grown to $151,622 which includes $476 cash and excludes $2,977 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-ModSum/YieldCurve Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 12.3%, and for the last 12 months is 16.9%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 9.2% and 21.8% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-PortSum/YieldCurve Timer gained 1.12% at a time when SPY gained -0.46%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/1/2016 would have grown to $430,237 which includes $1,897 cash and excludes $2,470 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Best2 MC-Score ETF System: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 6.4%, and for the last 12 months is 6.0%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 9.2% and 21.8% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Best2 MC-Score ETF System gained 2.30% at a time when SPY gained -0.46%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $200,264 which includes $2,002 cash and excludes $5,779 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Best4 MC-Score Vanguard System: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 8.2%, and for the last 12 months is 11.9%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 9.2% and 21.8% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Best4 MC-Score Vanguard System gained 1.98% at a time when SPY gained -0.46%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $197,910 which includes $7,005 cash and excludes $00 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Composite (SPY-IEF) Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 10.6%, and for the last 12 months is 14.7%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 9.2% and 21.8% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Composite (SPY-IEF) Timer gained -0.45% at a time when SPY gained -0.46%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $239,411 which includes $1,550 cash and excludes $8,651 spent on fees and slippage.
	iM-Composite(Gold-Stocks-Bond) Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -11.6%, and for the last 12 months is 16.3%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 9.2% and 21.8% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Composite(Gold-Stocks-Bond) Timer gained -4.16% at a time when SPY gained -0.46%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $356,908 which includes $113 cash and excludes $10,872 spent on fees and slippage.

Unemployment

The 5/8/2026 BLS Employment Situation Report reports that the April 2026 unemployment rate remained unchanged at  4.3%.

Our UER model does  signal a recession with a near  zero recession probability of (see graph).

 

 

CAPE-Cycle-ID

Fig 9a depicts the CAPE-Cycle-ID and the year-on-year rate-of-change of the Shiller CAPE;  the level switched from -2 to 0 end of June 2023 generating a buy  signal. This indicator now invested in the markets. This indicator is described here.

To avoid the bear market, exit stocks when the spread between the 5-month and 25-month moving averages of S&P-real becomes negative and simultaneously the CAPE-Cycle-ID score is 0 or -2. (read more)

 

Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns

The estimated forward 10‐year annualized real return is 4.7% (previous month 5.0%) with a 95% confidence interval 3.3% to 6.2%  (3.6% to 6.5%). Also refer to the  Realized Forward 10-Year Returns vs. Inflation Rate We may be in a rising inflation period with a falling CAPE-MA35 ratio similar to 1964-1973. This implies very low or negative 10 year forward annualized real returns, much lower than the returns indicated by regression analysis shown in the Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns.

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iM-GT Timer

The iM-GT Timer, based on Google Search Trends volume indicator is not invested in the stock markets since beginning November 2025. This indicator is described here.

 

 

Trade Weighted USD

Will be updated later, the weekly FRED data series we used was discontinued and replacement series is daily and runs from 2015. We need to adapt our software and graphics first.

 

 

 

TIAA Real Estate Account

The 1-year rolling return is =1.88% (previous month 2.26%) and is invested in the TIAA Real Estate Account since beginning May 2025.

Read more …