Last November the IBH model generated a sell-basic signal and 2 days later a sell A signal, indicating that the model had exited the S&P500. I had expressed concern that the basic sell signal was perhaps a bad signal; the reason for this abnormal signal was that the WLI was negatively affected by the high number of initial claims for unemployment insurance after hurricane Sandy
Blog Archives
Update 1-18-13
In my 12-21-12 update I expressed concern that the basic sell signal, of nine weeks ago, was perhaps a bad signal. I have attached the a chart showing the performance after the basic sell signal and how it relates to the envelope of all previous performances after basic sell signals.
Update 1-11-13
Eight weeks ago the IBH model generated a sell-basic signal and 2 days later a sell A signal, indicating that the model had exited the S&P500. So far the S&P has gained since the sell signal. Clearly the sell A signal came to early…..Here are the new rules for a sell A signal.
Update 1-4-13
No recession occurred during 2012, despite ECRI claiming that we have had a recession since the middle of 2012. The COMP indicator is far away from a recession signal.
Posted in uddates
Update 12-28-12
The Yield Curve:: The trend seems to be up – the model expects the yield curve to steepen. FLAT and STPP are ETNs. STPP profits from a steepening yield curve and FLAT increases in value when the yield curve flattens.
Posted in uddates
Update 12-21-12
The BVR has declined from last week, indicating losses for long bonds over this period. In the longer term BVR will reach the long-term trendline and long-bond investors will have suffered considerable losses by then.
Posted in uddates
Update 12-14-12
On Wednesday it was reported that the Fed would extend its easing measures until the unemployment rate declined to 6.5%. According to a projection from the unemployment recession model it will take at least to the first quarter of 2014 for this to occur.
Posted in uddates
Update 12-07-12
The various indicator lines, of the IBH model, after peaking appear to be heading lower. So far the S&P has gained since the earlier sell signal.
Posted in uddates
Update 11-23-12
No recession from 1969 onwards has ever started when the COMP indicator was at the present level.
Posted in uddates
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