The IBH stock market model is out of the market. The MAC stock market model is invested but the indicators may be rolling over, the bond market model avoids high beta (long) bonds, the yield curve may be flattening, and gold is not invested, but we got a buy for silver today. The recession indicator COMP is higher from last week’s level

The IBH model produced a basic-sell signal early this week and a few days later a sell-A signal. The MAC stock market model is invested, the bond market model avoids high beta (long) bonds and intermediate duration bonds as well, the yield curve is getting steeper, and gold and silver models are not invested. The recession indicator COMP moved higher again.

Last November the IBH model generated a sell-basic signal and 2 days later a sell A signal, indicating that the model had exited the S&P500. I had expressed concern that the basic sell signal was perhaps a bad signal; the reason for this abnormal signal was that the WLI was negatively affected by the high number of initial claims for unemployment insurance after hurricane Sandy

In my 12-21-12 update I expressed concern that the basic sell signal, of nine weeks ago, was perhaps a bad signal. I have attached the a chart showing the performance after the basic sell signal and how it relates to the envelope of all previous performances after basic sell signals.

Eight weeks ago the IBH model generated a sell-basic signal and 2 days later a sell A signal, indicating that the model had exited the S&P500. So far the S&P has gained since the sell signal. Clearly the sell A signal came to early…..Here are the new rules for a sell A signal.

The IBH model generated a basic sell signal two days ago and a sell A signal today, all as per yesterday’s flash update based on the shadow WLI.