Knowing when the U.S. Economy is heading for recession is paramount for successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index (BCI) would have provided early reliably warnings for the past seven recessions.
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Blog Archives
No Recession Is Signaled By iM’s Business Cycle Index: Update June 16, 2016
No Recession Is Signaled By iM’s Business Cycle Index: Update June 9, 2016
Knowing when the U.S. Economy is heading for recession is paramount for successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index (BCI) would have provided early reliably warnings for the past seven recessions.
Read more >
The Unemployment Rate is Not Signaling a Recession: Update June 3, 2016
A reliable source for recession forecasting is the unemployment rate, which can provide signals for the beginnings and ends of recessions. The unemployment rate model (article link), updated with the May figure of 5%, does not signal a recession now.
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No Recession Is Signaled By iM’s Business Cycle Index: Update June 2, 2016
Knowing when the U.S. Economy is heading for recession is paramount for successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index (BCI) would have provided early reliably warnings for the past seven recessions.
Read more >
No Recession Is Signaled By iM’s Business Cycle Index: Update May 26, 2016
Knowing when the U.S. Economy is heading for recession is paramount for successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index (BCI) would have provided early reliably warnings for the past seven recessions.
Read more >
No Recession Is Signaled By iM’s Business Cycle Index: Update May 19, 2016
Knowing when the U.S. Economy is heading for recession is paramount for successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index (BCI) would have provided early reliably warnings for the past seven recessions.
Read more >
No Recession Is Signaled By iM’s Business Cycle Index: Update May 12, 2016
Knowing when the U.S. Economy is heading for recession is paramount for successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index (BCI) would have provided early reliably warnings for the past seven recessions.
Read more >
The Unemployment Rate is Not Signaling a Recession: Update May 6, 2016
A reliable source for recession forecasting is the unemployment rate, which can provide signals for the beginnings and ends of recessions. The unemployment rate model (article link), updated with the April figure of 5%, does not signal a recession now.
Read more >
No Recession Is Signaled By iM’s Business Cycle Index: Update May 5, 2016
Knowing when the U.S. Economy is heading for recession is paramount for successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index (BCI) would have provided early reliably warnings for the past seven recessions.
Read more >
The Dynamic Linearly Detrended Enhanced Aggregate Spread: A Long Leading Recession Indicator
- The DAGS, short for Dynamic Linearly Detrended Enhanced Aggregate Spread, is a derivative of the Enhanced Aggregate Spread (EAS) recession indicator which comes from Robert Dieli.
- The DAGS can signal, as much as nine months ahead when a cycle peak (recession start) is likely to take place.
- Armed with that information, investors can make appropriate plans. As of writing (May 2016), it signals, at least to the end of January 2017, a continuation of the expansion phase of this business cycle.
With reference to Section 202(a)(11)(D) of the Investment Advisers Act:
We are Engineers and not Investment Advisers,
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