Is your investment strategy protecting your assets from the next recession? Our Business Cycle Index is a tool to help you gauge recession risk.
Blog Archives
Earnings Point To A Continuing Bull Market, But Expect Low 10-Year Forward Returns: Update June 2021
- The average of S&P 500 for May 2021 was 4168 (previous month 4141). This is 1718 points higher than the long-term trend value of 2450.
- The current percentage difference of S&P 500 level relative to the current long-term trend level is 70%, a value not exceeded in the recent past since August 2001.
- The Shiller Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings Ratio (CAPE) is at a level of 36.8. That is 47.5% higher than its 35-year moving average (MA35), currently at 25.0.
- The CAPE-MA35 ratio is 1.48, forecasting a 10-year annualized real return of about 4.0%. Should the CAPE-MA35 ratio increase further, then 10-year forward returns will be even lower.
- End of May the 12-mo As Reported Earnings per share for the S&P 500 was $138.96, up from February’s $88.10. Should this trend continue then stocks may show further gains.
With reference to Section 202(a)(11)(D) of the Investment Advisers Act:
We are Engineers and not Investment Advisers,
read more ...
By the mere act of reading this page and navigating this site you acknowledge, agree to, and abide by the
Terms of Use / Disclaimer