The 6/4/2021 BLS Employment Situation Report shows that the unemployment rate decreased by 0.3% to 5.8%
CAPE-Cycle-IDFig 9a depicts the CAPE-Cycle-ID and the year-on-year rate-of-change of the Shiller CAPE; the level switched from 0 to +2 end of June 2020. This indicator is described here.
To avoid the bear market, exit stocks when the spread between the 5-month and 25-month moving averages of S&P-real becomes negative and simultaneously the CAPE-Cycle-ID score is 0 or -2. (read more)
Estimated Forward 10-Year ReturnsThe estimated forward 10‐year annualized real return increased to 4.1% (previous 4.0) with a 95% confidence interval : 2.6% to 5.6% (2.5% to 5.5% ).
Trade Weighted USD
TIAA Real Estate Account