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iM Update* – August 5, 2022
Posted in pmp paid update
An Upcoming Recession is Signaled by the Forward Rate Ratio
- Prior to recession the yield curve becomes inverted, as indicated by the Forward Rate Ratio between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (FRR2-10) being less than 1.00.
- The FRR2-10 crosses 1.000 downward signifying that US economic activity is in the boom phase of the business cycle, nearing the next recession.
- The average lead time after FRR2-10 becomes less than 1.00 to the subsequent recession start was 14 months for the seven of the eight last recessions.
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