iM Update – August 5,, 2022


Market Signals Summary:

The MAC US, Hi-Lo Index of the S&P 500, iM-FT Timer as well as the MAC-AU are dis-invested from the markets.The  S&P 500  Coppock Indicator generated a sell signal end July 2022 thus also dis-invested from the markets.   The bond market model prefers high beta (long) bonds. The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2 and 10 year rates is inverting thus signalling a recession.  The Gold Coppock is invested in gold, so is the iM-Gold Timer. The Silver Coppock model is dis-invested in silver.


Fig-2.-8-5-2022 The MAC-US model exited the US stock markets end April 2022.





Fig-2.2-8-5-2022The 3-mo Hi-Lo Index Index of the S&P500 is at -7.05% (last week -8.26%), and has exited the stock market on 1/20/22.




Fig-2.3-8-5-2022The Coppock indicator for the S&P500 generated a sell signal end July 2022 and is dis-invested in stocks.   This indicator is described here.




Fig-2.1-8-5-2022 The MAC-AU model generated a sell signal mid June and is not invested the Australian stock market.

This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations.




Fig-3.1a-8-5-2022 BCIg does not signal a recession.




Fig-3.1c-8-5-2022The growth of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator does not signal a recession.




Fig-3.2-8-5-2022The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (FRR2-10) is inverting and is signalling a recession — the average lead time of this signal is 14 months.

A description of this indicator can be found here.



Fig-3.3-8-5-2022The iM-Low Frequency Timer switched into stocks on 6/15/2020.

A description of this indicator can be found here.

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