iM Update – August 5,, 2022

 

Market Signals Summary:

The MAC US, Hi-Lo Index of the S&P 500, iM-FT Timer as well as the MAC-AU are dis-invested from the markets.The  S&P 500  Coppock Indicator generated a sell signal end July 2022 thus also dis-invested from the markets.   The bond market model prefers high beta (long) bonds. The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2 and 10 year rates is inverting thus signalling a recession.  The Gold Coppock is invested in gold, so is the iM-Gold Timer. The Silver Coppock model is dis-invested in silver.

Stock-markets:

Fig-2.-8-5-2022 The MAC-US model exited the US stock markets end April 2022.

 

 

 

 

Fig-2.2-8-5-2022The 3-mo Hi-Lo Index Index of the S&P500 is at -7.05% (last week -8.26%), and has exited the stock market on 1/20/22.

 

 

 

Fig-2.3-8-5-2022The Coppock indicator for the S&P500 generated a sell signal end July 2022 and is dis-invested in stocks.   This indicator is described here.

 

 

 

Fig-2.1-8-5-2022 The MAC-AU model generated a sell signal mid June and is not invested the Australian stock market.

This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations.

 

Recession:

 

Fig-3.1a-8-5-2022 BCIg does not signal a recession.

 

 

 

Fig-3.1c-8-5-2022The growth of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator does not signal a recession.

 

 

 

Fig-3.2-8-5-2022The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (FRR2-10) is inverting and is signalling a recession — the average lead time of this signal is 14 months.

A description of this indicator can be found here.

 

 

Fig-3.3-8-5-2022The iM-Low Frequency Timer switched into stocks on 6/15/2020.

A description of this indicator can be found here.

Posted in pmp free update
With reference to Section 202(a)(11)(D) of the Investment Advisers Act: We are Engineers and not Investment Advisers, read more ...
By the mere act of reading this page and navigating this site you acknowledge, agree to, and abide by the Terms of Use / Disclaimer