A reliable source for recession forecasting is the unemployment rate, which can provide signals for the beginnings and ends of recessions. The unemployment rate model (article link), updated with the March figure of 5%, does not signal a recession now.
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Blog Archives
The Unemployment Rate is Not Signaling a Recession: Update April 1, 2016
3/31/2016: Vanguard Systems
Latest iM-Systems performance tables for the seven systems are updated monthly
Posted in vanguard
3/31/2016: Vanguard+TIAA Systems
Latest iM-Systems performance tables for the seven systems are updated monthly
Posted in vang-tiaa
03/31/2016: TIAA Real Estate Timed
As of end March, 2016 the 1-year rolling return is 7.01%. The Vanguard REIT Index Fund is retreating from its all time high, however the good positive returns of TIAA Real Estate Account are expected to continue. A sell signal is not imminent. Read more …
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Posted in TIAA real timed
No Recession Is Signaled By iM’s Business Cycle Index: Update March 31, 2016
Knowing when the U.S. Economy is heading for recession is paramount for successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index (BCI) would have provided early reliably warnings for the past seven recessions.
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With reference to Section 202(a)(11)(D) of the Investment Advisers Act:
We are Engineers and not Investment Advisers,
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