Market Signals Summary:
The MAC-US model is invested. Also, both the “3-mo Hi-Lo Index of the S&P500” and the “VMNFX vs. SPY Timer” are invested in the markets. The MAC-AU is also invested. The recession indicators COMP and iM-BCIg do not signal a recession. The bond market model avoids high beta (long) bonds, the trend of the yield spread is indeterminate. The gold and the silver model are invested.
Stock-markets:
The MAC-US model generated a buy-signal 4/5/2016 and thus is invested in the stock-markets. The sell-spread, still negative, is up from last week’s level, it first has to become positive before it can signal a sell.
The 3-mo Hi-Lo Index of the S&P500 is invested in the market, it generated a buy signal on 3/23/2016.
The VMNFX vs. SPY Timer signaled an entry into the stock markets on 3/28/2016. For this model to exit the markets the indicator has to fall below the 2% trigger line and then rise above it.
The MAC-AU model is invested in the markets after it generated a buy signal on March 21, 2016. The sell-spread, still negative, is higher than last week’s level, but first has to become positive before it can signal a sell.
This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations.
Recession:

Figure 3.1 shows the recession indicator iM-BCIg also up from last week’s level. An imminent recession is not signaled .
Please also refer to the BCI page
The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (FRR2-10) is near last week’s level and far away from signalling a recession.
A description of this indicator can be found here.
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.