Blog Archives
iM-Best Reports – 9/26/2016
Posted in pmp SPY-SH
No Recession Is Signaled By iM’s Business Cycle Index: Update September 22, 2016
Knowing when the U.S. Economy is heading for recession is paramount for successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index (BCI) would have provided early reliably warnings for the past seven recessions.
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2.5% Inflation By December 2016; This Negative Inflation Surprise Favors TIPS Over Conventional Bonds!
- If the FED does not change the Federal Funds Rate then the year-on-year inflation rate is set to rise, and we calculate it at 2.5% for December 2016.
- The inflation rate for August was 1.1% and it is predicted rise to 2.5% by December. Accordingly, prices of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) should rise as well.
- With inflation rising, and markets uncertain, TIPS should be a reasonably safe investment for some time. Conventional bond funds are expected to perform worse than TIPS funds
No Recession Is Signaled By iM’s Business Cycle Index: Update September 15, 2016
Knowing when the U.S. Economy is heading for recession is paramount for successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index (BCI) would have provided early reliably warnings for the past seven recessions.
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With reference to Section 202(a)(11)(D) of the Investment Advisers Act:
We are Engineers and not Investment Advisers,
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