Knowing when the U.S. Economy is heading for recession is paramount for successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index (BCI) would have provided early reliably warnings for the past seven recessions.
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No Recession Is Signaled By iM’s Business Cycle Index: Update December 22, 2016
Posted in BCI
No Recession Is Signaled By iM’s Business Cycle Index: Update December 15, 2016
Knowing when the U.S. Economy is heading for recession is paramount for successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index (BCI) would have provided early reliably warnings for the past seven recessions.
Read more >
Posted in BCI
Timing the Stock Market with the Shiller CAPE
- The Shiller CAPE (cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio) is typically regarded as a stock market valuation measure. When the CAPE is high stocks are supposed to be expensive, and vice-versa.
- The CAPE itself is not a good stock market timer. However, the CAPE can indirectly be used for market timing by determining a Cycle-ID as formulated by Theodore Wong.
- Our 1950-2016 backtest of the CAPE-Cycle-ID model, when switching between the S&P500 with dividends and the money market, showed an annualized return of 11.9%, versus 10.4% for buy-and-hold.
With reference to Section 202(a)(11)(D) of the Investment Advisers Act:
We are Engineers and not Investment Advisers,
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