Anton Vrba | iMarketSignals

A reliable source for recession forecasting is the unemployment rate, which can provide signals for the beginnings and ends of recessions. The unemployment rate model (article link), updated with the June figure of 4.4%, does not signal a recession now.
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Posted in UER

No Recession Is Signaled By iM’s Business Cycle Index: Update July 6, 2017

Posted on Jul 6, 2017 by Anton Vrba

Knowing when the U.S. Economy is heading for recession is paramount for successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index (BCI) would have provided early reliably warnings for the past seven recessions.
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Posted in BCI

BCI July 6, 2017

Posted on Jul 6, 2017 by Anton Vrba — No Comments ↓

Performance Update of the Best10(VDIGX)-Trader: Trading the Stocks of the Vanguard Dividend Growth Fund – VDIGX

Posted on Jul 6, 2017 by Anton Vrba — No Comments ↓

The Vanguard Dividend Growth Fund-VDIGX is closed to new investors. Want-to-be investors can possibly do better than the fund by investing only in a few positions of the fund’s holdings.
The iM-Best10(VDIGX)-Trader relies on the expertise of the Vanguard’s advisors to make the primary stock selection. VDIGX currently holds 45 large-cap stocks from which the Trader periodically picks its stocks.
The Trader invests in the ten highest ranked stocks of VDIGX. This strategy, postulated in 2014, has produced to Jun-2017 a 3-year return of more than double that of VDIGX.
The 3-year performance of the Trader was 64.1% versus 28.4% for VDIGX, giving an excess return of 35.7%. Trading frequency was low, with positions held on average for 126 days.

Posted in blogs, featured