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BCI January 23, 2020
Posted in pmp BCI
Recession Forecasting With the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s Newly Released Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes
- From November 2019 onward, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago is releasing new measures of monthly real GDP growth and its components, the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes.
- The data release is for four indicators constructed from a panel of 500 monthly macroeconomic time series and quarterly real gross domestic product growth.
- Our analysis shows that apart from the Leading Index, the other three indicators would have been extremely accurate identifying recessions were it not for the publication time-lag.
- This time-lag makes, on average, these indicators about two month late to signal the start and end of recessions in real-time, as observed for the last seven recessions since 1967.
- Currently none of the Brave-Butters-Kelley Index models are warning of a recession.
No Sight of Next Recession: Business Cycle Index Update 1/16/2020
Is your investment strategy protecting your assets from the next recession? Our Business Cycle Index is a tool to help you gauge recession risk.
Posted in BCI
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