Monthly Update – April 2020


Fig-8.-5-8-2020The unemployment rate recession model (article linkThis model signals a recession. The end of the recession is signaled when the level of UERg starts to recede.




Fig-9a-5-8-2020Fig 9a depicts the CAPE-Cycle-ID and the year-on-year rate-of-change of the Shiller CAPE;  the level switched from +2 to 0 end of April 2020. This indicator is described here.

To avoid the bear market, exit stocks when the spread between the 5-month and 25-month moving averages of S&P-real becomes negative and simultaneously the CAPE-Cycle-ID score is 0 or -2. (read more)


Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns

Fig-9b-5-8-2020The estimated forward 10‐year annualized real return increased to 7.4% (previous 7.8) with a 95% confidence interval : 6.2% to 8.7% (previous 6.6% to 9.1%).



iM-GT Timer

Fig-10-5-8-2020The iM-GT Timer, based on Google Search Trends volume switched out of the markets on 3/5/2020. This indicator is described here.



Trade Weighted USD

USD-5-8-2020 Will be updated later, the weekly FRED data series we used was discontinued and replacement series is daily and runs from 2015. We need to adapt our software and graphics first.




TIAA Real Estate Account

Fig-11.-5-8-2020The 1-year rolling return for the end of last month is 2.99%, down from last month’s 3.63%.

Read more …





Posted in month free

Leave a Reply

With reference to Section 202(a)(11)(D) of the Investment Advisers Act: We are Engineers and not Investment Advisers, read more ...
By the mere act of reading this page and navigating this site you acknowledge, agree to, and abide by the Terms of Use / Disclaimer