iM Update – May 8, 2020

Market Signals Summary:

The 3-mo Hi-Lo Index is out of the market since 3/5/2020 and the MAC US and the MAC AU are out of the markets since 3/26/2020.  The bond market model avoids high beta (long) bonds, and the yield curve is steepening. The Gold Coppock remains in gold but the iM-Gold Timer is in cash. The Silver Coppock model is invested in silver.

The BCI, the iM-LLI and the iM-Unemployment models all signal a recession warning.

The iM-GT Timer, based on Google Search Trends volume switched out of the markets on 3/5/2020.

Stock-markets:

Fig-2.-5-8-2020 The MAC-US model switched out of the markets on 3/26/2020. The buy-spread (green line) is far from signalling a buy.

 

 

 

Fig-2.2-5-8-2020The 3-mo Hi-Lo Index Index of the S&P500 at -9.43% is above last week’s -14.69%, and is out of the stock market since 3/5/2020.

 

 

 

Fig-2.3-5-8-2020The Coppock indicator for the S&P500 entered  the market on 5/9/2019 and is invested.   This indicator is described here.

 

 

 

Fig-2.1-5-8-2020 The MAC-AU model switch out of the markets on 3/27/2020. The buy-spread (green line) is far from signalling a buy.

This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations.

 

Recession:

 

Fig-3-LLI-5-8-2020 Significant backward revisions in the Fed’s BBK data series, cause the iM-LLI  now to signal a recession warning as early as begriming February,  whereas previously it was far from a recession signal.  As a result we have no confidence in the BBK data thus we will discontinue this indicator.

 

 

Fig-3.1-5-8-2020Figure 3.1 shows the recession indicator iM-BCIg far below last week’s level

 

 

 

Fig-3.2-5-8-2020The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (FRR2-10) is above last week’s level. It is rising steeply, typically seen at a start of a recession.

A description of this indicator can be found here.

 

Fig-3.3-5-8-2020The iM-Low Frequency Timer switched out of stocks on 4/3/2020.

A description of this indicator can be found here.

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