Home Page Template Test

 

iM-Business Cycle Index

   BCIw is not signaling a recession, nor does the BCIg.

 

 

Stock-markets:

 

Recession:

 

Unemployment

The 1/10/22925 BLS Employment Situation Report shows that the December 2024 unemployment rate decreased by .1% to 4.1%.

Our UER model does  signal a recession. However, the recession probability is very low at 19%

 

 

CAPE-Cycle-ID

Fig 9a depicts the CAPE-Cycle-ID and the year-on-year rate-of-change of the Shiller CAPE;  the level switched from -2 to 0 end of June 2023 generating a buy  signal. This indicator now invested in the markets. This indicator is described here.

To avoid the bear market, exit stocks when the spread between the 5-month and 25-month moving averages of S&P-real becomes negative and simultaneously the CAPE-Cycle-ID score is 0 or -2. (read more)

 

Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns

The estimated forward 10‐year annualized real return is 4.6% (previous month 4.7%) with a 95% confidence interval 3.1% to 6.0% (3.2% to 6.2% ). Also refer to the  Realized Forward 10-Year Returns vs. Inflation Rate We may be in a rising inflation period with a falling CAPE-MA35 ratio similar to 1964-1973. This implies very low or negative 10 year forward annualized real returns, much lower than the returns indicated by regression analysis shown in the Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns.

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iM-GT Timer

 

 

Trade Weighted USD

 

 

 

TIAA Real Estate Account

 

 

 

 

 

    

January 5, 2025

iM-Best Holdings

Bond-market:

The Yield Curve:

 

 

 

Silver:

    

January 5, 2025

iM-Best Holdings

Stock-markets:

 

Recession:

 

Bond-market:

The Yield Curve:

 

 

 

Silver:

 

iM-Business Cycle Index

   BCIw is not signaling a recession, nor does the BCIg.

 

 

Unemployment

The 1/10/22925 BLS Employment Situation Report shows that the December 2024 unemployment rate decreased by .1% to 4.1%.

Our UER model does  signal a recession. However, the recession probability is very low at 19%

 

 

CAPE-Cycle-ID

Fig 9a depicts the CAPE-Cycle-ID and the year-on-year rate-of-change of the Shiller CAPE;  the level switched from -2 to 0 end of June 2023 generating a buy  signal. This indicator now invested in the markets. This indicator is described here.

To avoid the bear market, exit stocks when the spread between the 5-month and 25-month moving averages of S&P-real becomes negative and simultaneously the CAPE-Cycle-ID score is 0 or -2. (read more)

 

Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns

The estimated forward 10‐year annualized real return is 4.6% (previous month 4.7%) with a 95% confidence interval 3.1% to 6.0% (3.2% to 6.2% ). Also refer to the  Realized Forward 10-Year Returns vs. Inflation Rate We may be in a rising inflation period with a falling CAPE-MA35 ratio similar to 1964-1973. This implies very low or negative 10 year forward annualized real returns, much lower than the returns indicated by regression analysis shown in the Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns.

.

 

iM-GT Timer

 

 

Trade Weighted USD

 

 

 

TIAA Real Estate Account