We offer three categories of membership – bronze, silver and gold at $20, $40 and $80 per month respectively, or discounted on a per year basis. The table to the left (just click on it) lists what you can access depending on the membership level you choose. All information not listed will remain free, however selected key articles could in future be restricted to a paid membership category.
Please select your membership level here.
Most Recent Updates
November 6, 2025
iM-Business Cycle Index
Updates delayed due to government shutdown
January 9, 2026
Stock-markets:
The MAC-US model is invested since mid June 2025,
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The MAC-AU model is dis-invested from the Australian stock market sine end April 2025.
This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations.
Recession:
BCIg is not signaling a recession. (due to government shutdown, still lacking data)
The growth of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator does not signal a recession.(due to government shutdown, still lacking data)
The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (FRR2-10) is no longer inverted and the curve is steepening.
A description of this indicator can be found here.
The iM-Low Frequency Timer switched to bonds on 9/26/2022.
A description of this indicator can be found here.
Monthly Updates
January 9, 2026
Unemployment
The 1/9/2025 BLS Employment Situation Report reports that the December 2025 unemployment rate decreased by 0.1% to 4.4%.
Our UER model does signal a recession with a recession probability of 40% (see graph).
CAPE-Cycle-ID
Fig 9a depicts the CAPE-Cycle-ID and the year-on-year rate-of-change of the Shiller CAPE; the level switched from -2 to 0 end of June 2023 generating a buy signal. This indicator now invested in the markets. This indicator is described here.
To avoid the bear market, exit stocks when the spread between the 5-month and 25-month moving averages of S&P-real becomes negative and simultaneously the CAPE-Cycle-ID score is 0 or -2. (read more)
Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns
The estimated forward 10‐year annualized real return is 4.3% (previous month 4.4%) with a 95% confidence interval 2.8% to 5.8% (2.9% to 5.9%). Also refer to the Realized Forward 10-Year Returns vs. Inflation Rate 
We may be in a rising inflation period with a falling CAPE-MA35 ratio similar to 1964-1973. This implies very low or negative 10 year forward annualized real returns, much lower than the returns indicated by regression analysis shown in the Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns.
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iM-GT Timer
Trade Weighted USD
TIAA Real Estate Account
Other Member Updates
January 9, 2026
Bond-market:
The Yield Curve:
Silver:
Weekly Updates
January 9, 2026
Bond-market:
The Yield Curve:
Silver:
January 9, 2026
Stock-markets:
The MAC-US model is invested since mid June 2025,
.
The MAC-AU model is dis-invested from the Australian stock market sine end April 2025.
This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations.
Recession:
BCIg is not signaling a recession. (due to government shutdown, still lacking data)
The growth of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator does not signal a recession.(due to government shutdown, still lacking data)
The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (FRR2-10) is no longer inverted and the curve is steepening.
A description of this indicator can be found here.
The iM-Low Frequency Timer switched to bonds on 9/26/2022.
A description of this indicator can be found here.
November 7, 2025
Bond-market:
The BVR-model favors high beta bonds (long-bonds) and intermediate duration bonds when the BVR rises. The Bond Value Ratio as shown in Fig 4 is above last week’s value, and according to the model, only when BVR turns upward after having been lower than the lower offset-line should one consider long bonds again.
The Yield Curve:
The yield curve model indicates the trend of the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries yield spread. Figure 5 charts (i10 – i2), the yield curve is near last week’s level. This model confirms the direction of the BVR.
Gold:
The modified Coppock Gold indicator, shown in Fig 6, generated a buy signal mid July 2025 and is invested in gold.
This indicator is described in Is it Time to Buy Gold Again? – Wait for the buy signal …….
The iM GOLD-TIMER Rev-1 This model generated a new a buy signal mid August 2021 after being in cash for two weeks and thus invested in gold.
Silver:
The modified Coppock Silver indicator shown in Fig 7. iM-coppock model regenerated a buy signal end mid May 2024 and is invested in Silver.
This indicator is described in Silver – Better Than Gold: A Modified Coppock Indicator for Silver.
Monthly Updates
January 9, 2026
Unemployment
The 1/9/2025 BLS Employment Situation Report reports that the December 2025 unemployment rate decreased by 0.1% to 4.4%.
Our UER model does signal a recession with a recession probability of 40% (see graph).
CAPE-Cycle-ID
Fig 9a depicts the CAPE-Cycle-ID and the year-on-year rate-of-change of the Shiller CAPE; the level switched from -2 to 0 end of June 2023 generating a buy signal. This indicator now invested in the markets. This indicator is described here.
To avoid the bear market, exit stocks when the spread between the 5-month and 25-month moving averages of S&P-real becomes negative and simultaneously the CAPE-Cycle-ID score is 0 or -2. (read more)
Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns
The estimated forward 10‐year annualized real return is 4.3% (previous month 4.4%) with a 95% confidence interval 2.8% to 5.8% (2.9% to 5.9%). Also refer to the Realized Forward 10-Year Returns vs. Inflation Rate We may be in a rising inflation period with a falling CAPE-MA35 ratio similar to 1964-1973. This implies very low or negative 10 year forward annualized real returns, much lower than the returns indicated by regression analysis shown in the Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns.
.
iM-GT Timer
Trade Weighted USD
TIAA Real Estate Account