We offer three categories of membership – bronze, silver and gold at $20, $40 and $80 per month respectively, or discounted on a per year basis. The table to the left (just click on it) lists what you can access depending on the membership level you choose. All information not listed will remain free, however selected key articles could in future be restricted to a paid membership category.
Please select your membership level here.
Most Recent Updates
April 24, 2025
iM-Business Cycle Index
BCIw is not signaling a recession, nor does the BCIg.
April 25, 2025
Stock-markets:
The MAC-US model invested the US stock markets in first week of February 2023, However it will signal a sale within the next week or two.
The MAC-AU model generated a buy signal end November 2023, and is invested from the Australian stock market.
This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations.
Recession:
BCIg is not signaling a recession.
The growth of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator does not signal a recession.
The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (FRR2-10) is no longer inverted and the curve is steepening.
A description of this indicator can be found here.
The iM-Low Frequency Timer switched to bonds on 9/26/2022.
A description of this indicator can be found here.
Monthly Updates
April 4, 2025
Unemployment
The 4/4/2025 BLS Employment Situation Report reports that the March 2024 unemployment rate increased by .1% to 4.2%.
Our UER model does signal a recession. However, the recession probability has risen (see graph).
CAPE-Cycle-ID
Fig 9a depicts the CAPE-Cycle-ID and the year-on-year rate-of-change of the Shiller CAPE; the level switched from -2 to 0 end of June 2023 generating a buy signal. This indicator now invested in the markets. This indicator is described here.
To avoid the bear market, exit stocks when the spread between the 5-month and 25-month moving averages of S&P-real becomes negative and simultaneously the CAPE-Cycle-ID score is 0 or -2. (read more)
Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns
The estimated forward 10‐year annualized real return is 5.5% (previous month 4.8%) with a 95% confidence interval 4.1% to 6.9% (3.2% to 6.2% ). Also refer to the Realized Forward 10-Year Returns vs. Inflation Rate 
We may be in a rising inflation period with a falling CAPE-MA35 ratio similar to 1964-1973. This implies very low or negative 10 year forward annualized real returns, much lower than the returns indicated by regression analysis shown in the Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns.
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iM-GT Timer
The iM-GT Timer, based on Google Search Trends volume indicator exited the stock markets beginning December 2024. This indicator is described here.
Trade Weighted USD
Will be updated later, the weekly FRED data series we used was discontinued and replacement series is daily and runs from 2015. We need to adapt our software and graphics first.
TIAA Real Estate Account
Other Member Updates
April 25, 2025
Bond-market:
The Yield Curve:
Silver:
Weekly Updates
April 25, 2025
Stock-markets:
The MAC-US model invested the US stock markets in first week of February 2023, However it will signal a sale within the next week or two.
The MAC-AU model generated a buy signal end November 2023, and is invested from the Australian stock market.
This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations.
Recession:
BCIg is not signaling a recession.
The growth of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator does not signal a recession.
The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (FRR2-10) is no longer inverted and the curve is steepening.
A description of this indicator can be found here.
The iM-Low Frequency Timer switched to bonds on 9/26/2022.
A description of this indicator can be found here.
April 25, 2025
Bond-market:
The Yield Curve:
Silver:
April 24, 2025
iM-Business Cycle Index
BCIw is not signaling a recession, nor does the BCIg.
Monthly Updates
April 4, 2025
Unemployment
The 4/4/2025 BLS Employment Situation Report reports that the March 2024 unemployment rate increased by .1% to 4.2%.
Our UER model does signal a recession. However, the recession probability has risen (see graph).
CAPE-Cycle-ID
Fig 9a depicts the CAPE-Cycle-ID and the year-on-year rate-of-change of the Shiller CAPE; the level switched from -2 to 0 end of June 2023 generating a buy signal. This indicator now invested in the markets. This indicator is described here.
To avoid the bear market, exit stocks when the spread between the 5-month and 25-month moving averages of S&P-real becomes negative and simultaneously the CAPE-Cycle-ID score is 0 or -2. (read more)
Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns
The estimated forward 10‐year annualized real return is 5.5% (previous month 4.8%) with a 95% confidence interval 4.1% to 6.9% (3.2% to 6.2% ). Also refer to the Realized Forward 10-Year Returns vs. Inflation Rate We may be in a rising inflation period with a falling CAPE-MA35 ratio similar to 1964-1973. This implies very low or negative 10 year forward annualized real returns, much lower than the returns indicated by regression analysis shown in the Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns.
.
iM-GT Timer
The iM-GT Timer, based on Google Search Trends volume indicator exited the stock markets beginning December 2024. This indicator is described here.
Trade Weighted USD
Will be updated later, the weekly FRED data series we used was discontinued and replacement series is daily and runs from 2015. We need to adapt our software and graphics first.
TIAA Real Estate Account