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iM-feesWe offer three categories of membership – bronze, silver and gold at $20, $40 and $80 per month respectively, or discounted on a per year basis. The table to the left (just click on it) lists what you can access depending on the membership level you choose. All information not listed will remain free, however selected key articles could in future be restricted to a paid membership category.

Please select your membership level here.

Most Recent Updates

May 7, 2021

 

iM-Weekly Unemployment Monitor

WCEM-Fig-1-5-7-2021

The DOL reported unadjusted initial claims, totaled 504,670 (0.36% of Covered employment) in the week ending May 1, a decrease of 107,390 from the previous week. The 50 year long term average of initial claims as a percentage of Covered Employment  (January 1971 to today) is 0.38% and the average of the last business cycle (July 2009 to March 2020) is 0.24%

The advance unadjusted level of insured unemployment in state programs totaled 3,786,096, an increase of 2,533 from the preceding week

However, the total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending April 17 was 16,157,024, a decrease of 404,509 from the previous week.

 

 

Please refer The iM-Weekly Unemployment Monitor



May 7, 2021

Stock-markets:

Fig-2.-5-7-2021 The MAC-US model is invested in the stock market.

 

 

 

To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 06-04-2021 16:00 (New York), or please login or register
To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 06-04-2021 16:00 (New York), or please login or register
Fig-2.1-5-7-2021 The MAC-AU model is invested in the Australian stock market since mid July 2020.

This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations.

 

Recession:

 

Fig-3.1-5-7-2021 BCIg Temporarily withdrawn

 

 

 

Fig-3.2-5-7-2021The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (FRR2-10) is near last week’s level.

A description of this indicator can be found here.

 

Fig-3.3-5-7-2021The iM-Low Frequency Timer switched into stocks on 6/15/2020.

A description of this indicator can be found here.



Monthly Updates

May 7, 2021

Unemployment

The 5/7/2021 BLS Employment Situation Report shows that the unemployment rate increased by 0.1% to 6.1% The BLS reports 9.812 million are unemployed whereas the 5/6/2021 DOL reports that 16.157 million persons receive some form of unemployment benefit, or 10%  of the labor force, which is down 1.5% from last month.

 

CAPE-Cycle-ID

Fig-9a-5-7-2021Fig 9a depicts the CAPE-Cycle-ID and the year-on-year rate-of-change of the Shiller CAPE;  the level switched from 0 to +2 end of June 2020. This indicator is described here.

To avoid the bear market, exit stocks when the spread between the 5-month and 25-month moving averages of S&P-real becomes negative and simultaneously the CAPE-Cycle-ID score is 0 or -2. (read more)

 

Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns

Fig-9b-5-7-2021The estimated forward 10‐year annualized real return decreased to 4.0% (previous 4.6) with a 95% confidence interval : 2.5% to 5.5% (3.1% to 6.1% ).

 

 

iM-GT Timer

To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 05-24-2021 16:00 (New York), or please login or register

 

 

Trade Weighted USD

To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 05-24-2021 16:00 (New York), or please login or register

 

 

 

TIAA Real Estate Account

To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 06-04-2021 16:00 (New York), or please login or register

 

 

 

 



Other Member Updates

 

May 9,, 2021

iM-Best Holdings

Your Membership category does not entitle you to view any of the iM-Best model holdings

May 7, 2021

Bond-market:

To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 06-04-2021 16:00 (New York), or please login or register

The Yield Curve:

To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 06-04-2021 16:00 (New York), or please login or register

 

 

 

Silver:

To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 06-04-2021 16:00 (New York), or please login or register



Weekly Updates

 

May 9,, 2021

iM-Best Holdings

Your Membership category does not entitle you to view any of the iM-Best model holdings

May 7, 2021

 

iM-Weekly Unemployment Monitor

WCEM-Fig-1-5-7-2021

The DOL reported unadjusted initial claims, totaled 504,670 (0.36% of Covered employment) in the week ending May 1, a decrease of 107,390 from the previous week. The 50 year long term average of initial claims as a percentage of Covered Employment  (January 1971 to today) is 0.38% and the average of the last business cycle (July 2009 to March 2020) is 0.24%

The advance unadjusted level of insured unemployment in state programs totaled 3,786,096, an increase of 2,533 from the preceding week

However, the total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending April 17 was 16,157,024, a decrease of 404,509 from the previous week.

 

 

Please refer The iM-Weekly Unemployment Monitor



May 7, 2021

Bond-market:

To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 06-04-2021 16:00 (New York), or please login or register

The Yield Curve:

To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 06-04-2021 16:00 (New York), or please login or register

 

 

 

Silver:

To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 06-04-2021 16:00 (New York), or please login or register



May 7, 2021

Stock-markets:

Fig-2.-5-7-2021 The MAC-US model is invested in the stock market.

 

 

 

To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 06-04-2021 16:00 (New York), or please login or register
To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 06-04-2021 16:00 (New York), or please login or register
Fig-2.1-5-7-2021 The MAC-AU model is invested in the Australian stock market since mid July 2020.

This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations.

 

Recession:

 

Fig-3.1-5-7-2021 BCIg Temporarily withdrawn

 

 

 

Fig-3.2-5-7-2021The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (FRR2-10) is near last week’s level.

A description of this indicator can be found here.

 

Fig-3.3-5-7-2021The iM-Low Frequency Timer switched into stocks on 6/15/2020.

A description of this indicator can be found here.



Monthly Updates

May 7, 2021

Unemployment

The 5/7/2021 BLS Employment Situation Report shows that the unemployment rate increased by 0.1% to 6.1% The BLS reports 9.812 million are unemployed whereas the 5/6/2021 DOL reports that 16.157 million persons receive some form of unemployment benefit, or 10%  of the labor force, which is down 1.5% from last month.

 

CAPE-Cycle-ID

Fig-9a-5-7-2021Fig 9a depicts the CAPE-Cycle-ID and the year-on-year rate-of-change of the Shiller CAPE;  the level switched from 0 to +2 end of June 2020. This indicator is described here.

To avoid the bear market, exit stocks when the spread between the 5-month and 25-month moving averages of S&P-real becomes negative and simultaneously the CAPE-Cycle-ID score is 0 or -2. (read more)

 

Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns

Fig-9b-5-7-2021The estimated forward 10‐year annualized real return decreased to 4.0% (previous 4.6) with a 95% confidence interval : 2.5% to 5.5% (3.1% to 6.1% ).

 

 

iM-GT Timer

To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 05-24-2021 16:00 (New York), or please login or register

 

 

Trade Weighted USD

To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 05-24-2021 16:00 (New York), or please login or register

 

 

 

TIAA Real Estate Account

To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 06-04-2021 16:00 (New York), or please login or register

 

 

 

 



 

 

Posted in edit
With reference to Section 202(a)(11)(D) of the Investment Advisers Act: We are Engineers and not Investment Advisers, read more ...
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