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iM-feesWe offer three categories of membership – bronze, silver and gold at $20, $40 and $80 per month respectively, or discounted on a per year basis. The table to the left (just click on it) lists what you can access depending on the membership level you choose. All information not listed will remain free, however selected key articles could in future be restricted to a paid membership category.

Please select your membership level here.

Most Recent Updates

July 18, 2024

 

iM-Business Cycle Index

BCI-7-18-2024 BCIw-7-18-2024   BCIw is not signaling a recession, nor does the BCIg.

 

 



July 19, 2024

Stock-markets:

To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 07-22-2024 16:00 (New York), or please login or register
To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 08-16-2024 16:00 (New York), or please login or register
To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 08-16-2024 16:00 (New York), or please login or register
To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 07-22-2024 16:00 (New York), or please login or register

 

Recession:

 

To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 07-22-2024 16:00 (New York), or please login or register



Monthly Updates

July 5, 2024

Unemployment

Fig-8.-7-5-2024The 7/5/2024 BLS Employment Situation Report shows that the May 2024 unemployment rate increased by 0.1% to 4.1% from last month. Our UER model does  signal a recession.

 

 

CAPE-Cycle-ID

Fig-9a-7-5-2024Fig 9a depicts the CAPE-Cycle-ID and the year-on-year rate-of-change of the Shiller CAPE;  the level switched from -2 to 0 end of June 2023 generating a buy  signal. This indicator now invested in the markets. This indicator is described here.

To avoid the bear market, exit stocks when the spread between the 5-month and 25-month moving averages of S&P-real becomes negative and simultaneously the CAPE-Cycle-ID score is 0 or -2. (read more)

 

Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns

Fig-9b-7-5-2024The estimated forward 10‐year annualized real return is 5.4% (previous month 5.7%) with a 95% confidence interval 3.9% to 6.8% (4.3% to 7.1% ). Also refer to the  Realized Forward 10-Year Returns vs. Inflation Rate Fig-9c-7-5-2024We may be in a rising inflation period with a falling CAPE-MA35 ratio similar to 1964-1973. This implies very low or negative 10 year forward annualized real returns, much lower than the returns indicated by regression analysis shown in the Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns.

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iM-GT Timer

To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 07-22-2024 16:00 (New York), or please login or register

 

 

Trade Weighted USD

To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 07-22-2024 16:00 (New York), or please login or register

 

 

 

TIAA Real Estate Account

To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 08-02-2024 16:00 (New York), or please login or register

 

 

 

 

 



Other Member Updates

    

July 14,  2024

iM-Best Holdings

Your Membership category does not entitle you to view any of the iM-Best model holdings


July 19, 2024

Bond-market:

To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 08-16-2024 16:00 (New York), or please login or register

The Yield Curve:

To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 08-16-2024 16:00 (New York), or please login or register

 

 

 

Silver:

To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 08-16-2024 16:00 (New York), or please login or register



Weekly Updates

    

July 14,  2024

iM-Best Holdings

Your Membership category does not entitle you to view any of the iM-Best model holdings


July 19, 2024

Bond-market:

To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 08-16-2024 16:00 (New York), or please login or register

The Yield Curve:

To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 08-16-2024 16:00 (New York), or please login or register

 

 

 

Silver:

To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 08-16-2024 16:00 (New York), or please login or register



July 19, 2024

Stock-markets:

To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 07-22-2024 16:00 (New York), or please login or register
To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 08-16-2024 16:00 (New York), or please login or register
To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 08-16-2024 16:00 (New York), or please login or register
To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 07-22-2024 16:00 (New York), or please login or register

 

Recession:

 

To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 07-22-2024 16:00 (New York), or please login or register



July 18, 2024

 

iM-Business Cycle Index

BCI-7-18-2024 BCIw-7-18-2024   BCIw is not signaling a recession, nor does the BCIg.

 

 



Monthly Updates

July 5, 2024

Unemployment

Fig-8.-7-5-2024The 7/5/2024 BLS Employment Situation Report shows that the May 2024 unemployment rate increased by 0.1% to 4.1% from last month. Our UER model does  signal a recession.

 

 

CAPE-Cycle-ID

Fig-9a-7-5-2024Fig 9a depicts the CAPE-Cycle-ID and the year-on-year rate-of-change of the Shiller CAPE;  the level switched from -2 to 0 end of June 2023 generating a buy  signal. This indicator now invested in the markets. This indicator is described here.

To avoid the bear market, exit stocks when the spread between the 5-month and 25-month moving averages of S&P-real becomes negative and simultaneously the CAPE-Cycle-ID score is 0 or -2. (read more)

 

Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns

Fig-9b-7-5-2024The estimated forward 10‐year annualized real return is 5.4% (previous month 5.7%) with a 95% confidence interval 3.9% to 6.8% (4.3% to 7.1% ). Also refer to the  Realized Forward 10-Year Returns vs. Inflation Rate Fig-9c-7-5-2024We may be in a rising inflation period with a falling CAPE-MA35 ratio similar to 1964-1973. This implies very low or negative 10 year forward annualized real returns, much lower than the returns indicated by regression analysis shown in the Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns.

.

 

iM-GT Timer

To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 07-22-2024 16:00 (New York), or please login or register

 

 

Trade Weighted USD

To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 07-22-2024 16:00 (New York), or please login or register

 

 

 

TIAA Real Estate Account

To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 08-02-2024 16:00 (New York), or please login or register

 

 

 

 

 



 

 

Posted in edit
With reference to Section 202(a)(11)(D) of the Investment Advisers Act: We are Engineers and not Investment Advisers, read more ...
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