We offer three categories of membership – bronze, silver and gold at $20, $40 and $80 per month respectively, or discounted on a per year basis. The table to the left (just click on it) lists what you can access depending on the membership level you choose. All information not listed will remain free, however selected key articles could in future be restricted to a paid membership category.
Please select your membership level here.
Most Recent Updates
September 28, 2023
iM-Business Cycle Index
Both BCIw and BCIg no longer signal a recession
September 29, 2023
Stock-markets:
To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 10-02-2023 16:00 (New York), or please login or register
To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 10-27-2023 16:00 (New York), or please login or register
To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 10-27-2023 16:00 (New York), or please login or register
To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 10-02-2023 16:00 (New York), or please login or register
Recession:
Monthly Updates
September 1, 2023
Unemployment
The 9/1/2023 BLS Employment Situation Report shows that the August unemployment rate increased to 3.8%. Our UER model is on the verge of signalling a recession.
CAPE-Cycle-ID
Fig 9a depicts the CAPE-Cycle-ID and the year-on-year rate-of-change of the Shiller CAPE; the level switched from -2 to 0 end of June 2023 generating a buy signal. This indicator now invested in the markets. This indicator is described here.
To avoid the bear market, exit stocks when the spread between the 5-month and 25-month moving averages of S&P-real becomes negative and simultaneously the CAPE-Cycle-ID score is 0 or -2. (read more)
Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns
The estimated forward 10‐year annualized real return is 6.6% (previous month 6.4%) with a 95% confidence interval 5.3% to 7.9% (5.1% to 7.8%). Also refer to the Realized Forward 10-Year Returns vs. Inflation Rate 
We may be in a rising inflation period with a falling CAPE-MA35 ratio similar to 1964-1973. This implies very low or negative 10 year forward annualized real returns, much lower than the returns indicated by regression analysis shown in the Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns.
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iM-GT Timer
The iM-GT Timer, based on Google Search Trends volume indicator entered the stock markets beginning September 2023. This indicator is described here.
Trade Weighted USD
Will be updated later, the weekly FRED data series we used was discontinued and replacement series is daily and runs from 2015. We need to adapt our software and graphics first.
TIAA Real Estate Account
The 1-year rolling return is -9.19% (previous month -7.94%) and generated a sell signal begin April 2023.
Other Member Updates
September 29, 2023
Bond-market:
To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 10-27-2023 16:00 (New York), or please login or register
The Yield Curve:
To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 10-27-2023 16:00 (New York), or please login or register
Silver:
Weekly Updates
September 29, 2023
Bond-market:
To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 10-27-2023 16:00 (New York), or please login or register
The Yield Curve:
To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 10-27-2023 16:00 (New York), or please login or register
Silver:
September 29, 2023
Stock-markets:
To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 10-02-2023 16:00 (New York), or please login or register
To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 10-27-2023 16:00 (New York), or please login or register
To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 10-27-2023 16:00 (New York), or please login or register
To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 10-02-2023 16:00 (New York), or please login or register
Recession:
September 28, 2023
iM-Business Cycle Index
Both BCIw and BCIg no longer signal a recession
Monthly Updates
September 1, 2023
Unemployment
The 9/1/2023 BLS Employment Situation Report shows that the August unemployment rate increased to 3.8%. Our UER model is on the verge of signalling a recession.
CAPE-Cycle-ID
Fig 9a depicts the CAPE-Cycle-ID and the year-on-year rate-of-change of the Shiller CAPE; the level switched from -2 to 0 end of June 2023 generating a buy signal. This indicator now invested in the markets. This indicator is described here.
To avoid the bear market, exit stocks when the spread between the 5-month and 25-month moving averages of S&P-real becomes negative and simultaneously the CAPE-Cycle-ID score is 0 or -2. (read more)
Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns
The estimated forward 10‐year annualized real return is 6.6% (previous month 6.4%) with a 95% confidence interval 5.3% to 7.9% (5.1% to 7.8%). Also refer to the Realized Forward 10-Year Returns vs. Inflation Rate We may be in a rising inflation period with a falling CAPE-MA35 ratio similar to 1964-1973. This implies very low or negative 10 year forward annualized real returns, much lower than the returns indicated by regression analysis shown in the Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns.
.
iM-GT Timer
The iM-GT Timer, based on Google Search Trends volume indicator entered the stock markets beginning September 2023. This indicator is described here.
Trade Weighted USD
Will be updated later, the weekly FRED data series we used was discontinued and replacement series is daily and runs from 2015. We need to adapt our software and graphics first.
TIAA Real Estate Account
The 1-year rolling return is -9.19% (previous month -7.94%) and generated a sell signal begin April 2023.