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iM-feesWe offer three categories of membership – bronze, silver and gold at $20, $40 and $80 per month respectively, or discounted on a per year basis. The table to the left (just click on it) lists what you can access depending on the membership level you choose. All information not listed will remain free, however selected key articles could in future be restricted to a paid membership category.

Please select your membership level here.

Most Recent Updates

September 28, 2023

 

iM-Business Cycle Index

BCI-9-28-2023 BCIw-9-28-2023   Both BCIw and BCIg no longer signal a recession

 

 



September 29, 2023

Stock-markets:

To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 10-02-2023 16:00 (New York), or please login or register
To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 10-27-2023 16:00 (New York), or please login or register
To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 10-27-2023 16:00 (New York), or please login or register
To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 10-02-2023 16:00 (New York), or please login or register

 

Recession:

 

To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 10-02-2023 16:00 (New York), or please login or register



Monthly Updates

September 1, 2023

Unemployment

Fig-8-9-1-2023The 9/1/2023 BLS Employment Situation Report shows that the August unemployment rate increased to 3.8%. Our UER model is on the verge of signalling a recession.

 

CAPE-Cycle-ID

Fig-9a-9-1-2023Fig 9a depicts the CAPE-Cycle-ID and the year-on-year rate-of-change of the Shiller CAPE;  the level switched from -2 to 0 end of June 2023 generating a buy  signal. This indicator now invested in the markets. This indicator is described here.

To avoid the bear market, exit stocks when the spread between the 5-month and 25-month moving averages of S&P-real becomes negative and simultaneously the CAPE-Cycle-ID score is 0 or -2. (read more)

 

Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns

Fig-9b-9-1-2023The estimated forward 10‐year annualized real return is 6.6% (previous month 6.4%) with a 95% confidence interval 5.3% to 7.9% (5.1% to 7.8%). Also refer to the  Realized Forward 10-Year Returns vs. Inflation Rate Fig-9c-9-1-2023We may be in a rising inflation period with a falling CAPE-MA35 ratio similar to 1964-1973. This implies very low or negative 10 year forward annualized real returns, much lower than the returns indicated by regression analysis shown in the Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns.

.

 

iM-GT Timer

Fig-10-9-1-2023The iM-GT Timer, based on Google Search Trends volume indicator entered the stock markets beginning September 2023. This indicator is described here.

 

 

Trade Weighted USD

USD-9-1-2023 Will be updated later, the weekly FRED data series we used was discontinued and replacement series is daily and runs from 2015. We need to adapt our software and graphics first.

 

 

 

TIAA Real Estate Account

Fig-11.-9-1-2023The 1-year rolling return is -9.19% (previous month -7.94%) and generated a sell signal begin April 2023.

Read more …

 

 

 

 

 



Other Member Updates

     

October 1, 2023

iM-Best Holdings

Your Membership category does not entitle you to view any of the iM-Best model holdings


September 29, 2023

Bond-market:

To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 10-27-2023 16:00 (New York), or please login or register

The Yield Curve:

To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 10-27-2023 16:00 (New York), or please login or register

 

 

 

Silver:

To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 10-27-2023 16:00 (New York), or please login or register



Weekly Updates

     

October 1, 2023

iM-Best Holdings

Your Membership category does not entitle you to view any of the iM-Best model holdings


September 29, 2023

Bond-market:

To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 10-27-2023 16:00 (New York), or please login or register

The Yield Curve:

To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 10-27-2023 16:00 (New York), or please login or register

 

 

 

Silver:

To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 10-27-2023 16:00 (New York), or please login or register



September 29, 2023

Stock-markets:

To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 10-02-2023 16:00 (New York), or please login or register
To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 10-27-2023 16:00 (New York), or please login or register
To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 10-27-2023 16:00 (New York), or please login or register
To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 10-02-2023 16:00 (New York), or please login or register

 

Recession:

 

To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 10-02-2023 16:00 (New York), or please login or register



September 28, 2023

 

iM-Business Cycle Index

BCI-9-28-2023 BCIw-9-28-2023   Both BCIw and BCIg no longer signal a recession

 

 



Monthly Updates

September 1, 2023

Unemployment

Fig-8-9-1-2023The 9/1/2023 BLS Employment Situation Report shows that the August unemployment rate increased to 3.8%. Our UER model is on the verge of signalling a recession.

 

CAPE-Cycle-ID

Fig-9a-9-1-2023Fig 9a depicts the CAPE-Cycle-ID and the year-on-year rate-of-change of the Shiller CAPE;  the level switched from -2 to 0 end of June 2023 generating a buy  signal. This indicator now invested in the markets. This indicator is described here.

To avoid the bear market, exit stocks when the spread between the 5-month and 25-month moving averages of S&P-real becomes negative and simultaneously the CAPE-Cycle-ID score is 0 or -2. (read more)

 

Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns

Fig-9b-9-1-2023The estimated forward 10‐year annualized real return is 6.6% (previous month 6.4%) with a 95% confidence interval 5.3% to 7.9% (5.1% to 7.8%). Also refer to the  Realized Forward 10-Year Returns vs. Inflation Rate Fig-9c-9-1-2023We may be in a rising inflation period with a falling CAPE-MA35 ratio similar to 1964-1973. This implies very low or negative 10 year forward annualized real returns, much lower than the returns indicated by regression analysis shown in the Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns.

.

 

iM-GT Timer

Fig-10-9-1-2023The iM-GT Timer, based on Google Search Trends volume indicator entered the stock markets beginning September 2023. This indicator is described here.

 

 

Trade Weighted USD

USD-9-1-2023 Will be updated later, the weekly FRED data series we used was discontinued and replacement series is daily and runs from 2015. We need to adapt our software and graphics first.

 

 

 

TIAA Real Estate Account

Fig-11.-9-1-2023The 1-year rolling return is -9.19% (previous month -7.94%) and generated a sell signal begin April 2023.

Read more …

 

 

 

 

 



 

 

Posted in edit
With reference to Section 202(a)(11)(D) of the Investment Advisers Act: We are Engineers and not Investment Advisers, read more ...
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