Knowing when the U.S. Economy is heading for recession is paramount for successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index (BCI) would have provided early reliably warnings for the past seven recessions.
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Blog Archives
No Recession Is Signaled By iM’s Business Cycle Index: Update November 26, 2015
No Recession Is Signaled By iM’s Business Cycle Index: Update November 19, 2015
Knowing when the U.S. Economy is heading for recession is paramount for successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index (BCI) would have provided early reliably warnings for the past seven recessions.
Read more >
No Recession Is Signaled By iM’s Business Cycle Index: Update November 12, 2015
Knowing when the U.S. Economy is heading for recession is paramount for successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index (BCI) would have provided early reliably warnings for the past seven recessions.
Read more >
The Unemployment Rate is Not Signaling a Recession: Update November 6, 2015
A reliable source for recession forecasting is the unemployment rate, which can provide signals for the beginnings and ends of recessions. The unemployment rate model (article link), updated with the October figure of 5.0%, does not signal a recession now.
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Death Cross of Trailing 12-Month Income Signals An Overdue Market Decline
- A warning of a major stock market decline from the death cross of the Trailing Twelve Months Income Available to Common Stocks (TTMIACS) of the S&P500
- The TTMIACS of the S&P500 has historically provided a good indication of market tops.
- TTMIACS has been declining since Feb-2015 when its 10-week moving average crossed its 40-week moving average to the downside.
- Exiting the stock market according to this indicator would have avoided major losses in 2001 and 2008.
No Recession Is Signaled By iM’s Business Cycle Index: Update November 5, 2015
Knowing when the U.S. Economy is heading for recession is paramount for successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index (BCI) would have provided early reliably warnings for the past seven recessions.
Read more >
No Recession Is Signaled By iM’s Business Cycle Index: Update October 29, 2015
Knowing when the U.S. Economy is heading for recession is paramount for successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index (BCI) would have provided early reliably warnings for the past seven recessions.
Read more >
No Recession Is Signaled By iM’s Business Cycle Index: Update October 22, 2015
Knowing when the U.S. Economy is heading for recession is paramount for successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index (BCI) would have provided early reliably warnings for the past seven recessions.
Read more >
Getting the Most from the iM-Best(SPY-IEF) Market Timer
The iM-Best(SPY-IEF) MarketTimer incorporates three market timing models which provide signals which indicate the percentage of funds to allocate to stock market investment in 25% increments, from 0% to 100%, also referred to as signal strength.
Alternatively, instead of allocating a percentage of funds to stocks and bonds, one can be fully invested in stocks or bond funds according to the signal strength, as shown in the tables below.
No Recession Is Signaled By iM’s Business Cycle Index: Update October 15, 2015
Knowing when the U.S. Economy is heading for recession is paramount for successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index (BCI) would have provided early reliably warnings for the past seven recessions.
Read more >
With reference to Section 202(a)(11)(D) of the Investment Advisers Act:
We are Engineers and not Investment Advisers,
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