Knowing when the U.S. Economy is heading for recession is paramount for successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index (BCI) would have provided early reliably warnings for the past seven recessions.
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Blog Archives
No Recession Is Signaled By iM’s Business Cycle Index: Update March 3, 2016
No Recession Is Signaled By iM’s Business Cycle Index: Update February 25, 2016
Knowing when the U.S. Economy is heading for recession is paramount for successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index (BCI) would have provided early reliably warnings for the past seven recessions.
Read more >
No Recession Is Signaled By iM’s Business Cycle Index: Update February 18, 2016
Knowing when the U.S. Economy is heading for recession is paramount for successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index (BCI) would have provided early reliably warnings for the past seven recessions.
Read more >
No Recession Is Signaled By iM’s Business Cycle Index: Update February 11, 2016
Knowing when the U.S. Economy is heading for recession is paramount for successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index (BCI) would have provided early reliably warnings for the past seven recessions.
Read more >
How Much More Will The Market Decline? The Trailing 12-Month Income Available Could Provide An Answer.
- The Trailing Twelve Months Income Available to Common Stocks (TTMIACS) of the S&P500 is tightly correlated to the S&P 500.
- TTMIACS has been declining since Feb-2015 when its 10-week moving average crossed its 40-week moving average to the downside.
- Exiting the stock market according to this indicator would have avoided major losses in 2001 and 2008.
- According to this indicator, a downwards potential remains in the S&P 500 with a possible low of 1660 in the next three months.
Market Timing with Vanguard’s Market Neutral Fund VMNFX
- The Vanguard Market Neutral Fund Investor Shares (VMNFX) aims to “neutralize”, or limit the effect of stock market movement on returns.
- We calculate 26-week rolling returns for VMNFX and for benchmark SPY (the ETF tracking the S&P500), which provide a measure of over- or under performance of VMNFX relative to SPY.
- Predictive information comes from the relationship between the fund and the benchmark rolling returns. If VMNFX performs better than the stock market then one should be out of the market.
- Conversely, if VMNFX under performs SPY then it should be relatively safe to be invested in stocks.
- Our analysis generated a sell signal for the stock market on Nov-2-2015.
The Unemployment Rate is Not Signaling a Recession: Update February 5, 2016
A reliable source for recession forecasting is the unemployment rate, which can provide signals for the beginnings and ends of recessions. The unemployment rate model (article link), updated with the January figure of 4.9%, does not signal a recession now.
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No Recession Is Signaled By iM’s Business Cycle Index: Update February 4, 2016
Knowing when the U.S. Economy is heading for recession is paramount for successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index (BCI) would have provided early reliably warnings for the past seven recessions.
Read more >
No Recession Is Signaled By iM’s Business Cycle Index: Update January 28, 2016
Knowing when the U.S. Economy is heading for recession is paramount for successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index (BCI) would have provided early reliably warnings for the past seven recessions.
Read more >
No Recession Is Signaled By iM’s Business Cycle Index: Update January 21, 2016
Knowing when the U.S. Economy is heading for recession is paramount for successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index (BCI) would have provided early reliably warnings for the past seven recessions.
Read more >
With reference to Section 202(a)(11)(D) of the Investment Advisers Act:
We are Engineers and not Investment Advisers,
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