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iM Update* – August 11, 2023
Posted in pmp paid update
Stocks Are Moderately Overvalued And 10-Year Forward Returns Look Reasonably Good: Update July 2023
- The average of S&P 500 for July-2023 was 4,497 (4% down from Dec-2021 high average of 4,675) and is 859 points higher than the corresponding long-term trend value of 3,638.
- For the S&P 500 to reach the corresponding long-trend value would entail a 20% decline from the July average value, indicating that the S&P 500 is moderately overvalued.
- The Shiller CAPE-ratio is at 30.9, 19% higher than its 35-year moving average (MA35), currently at 26.1, forecasting a 10-year annualized real return of about 6.5%.
- The long-term trend indicates a forward 10-year annualized real return of 4.4%
With reference to Section 202(a)(11)(D) of the Investment Advisers Act:
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