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Blog Archives
iM Update* – May 3, 2019
Posted in pmp paid update
The Unemployment Rate May Soon Signal A Recession: Update – May 3, 2019
- For what is considered to be a lagging indicator of the economy, the unemployment rate provides surprisingly good signals for the beginning and end of recessions.
- This model, backtested to 1948, reliably provided recession signals.
- The model, updated with the January 2019 rate of 4.0%, does not signal a recession.
- However, if unemployment rate rises to 4.1% in the coming months the model would then signal recession.
Posted in UER
No Sight of Next Recession: Business Cycle Index Update 5/2/2019
Is your investment strategy protecting your assets from the next recession? Our Business Cycle Index is a tool to help you gauge recession risk.
Posted in BCI
Why Not To Invest In Vanguard’s U.S. Momentum Factor ETF (VFMO) – 1-Year On
- In February 2018 Vanguard released a set of five actively managed sector ETF’s and one multi-factor ETF. Here we report on the performance of the Momentum Factor ETF (VFMO).
- Shortly after the inception of VFMO we published this article “Why Not To Invest In Vanguard’s New U.S. Momentum Factor ETF” which demonstrated that Vanguard’s selection criteria was flawed.
- In the referenced article we stated that it was unlikely that VFMO will show a higher return than the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) over the year following inception.
Posted in blogs
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