iM Update – April 19, 2019

Market Signals Summary:

The MAC-US model,  iM-Low Frequency Timer  

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are invested in the markets. However, the  S&P500 Coppock is out of the markets. The MAC-AU  is invested in the markets. The recession indicators COMP and iM-BCIg do not signal a recession. 
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Fig-2.1-4-26-2019The MAC-AU model is invested in the markets after signaling a a buy on February 7, 2019. The sell-spread (red line) above last week’s value needs to move below zero to generate a sell signal.

This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations.

 

Recession:

Fig-3.-4-26-2019Figure 3 shows the COMP above last week’s level. No recession is indicated. COMP can be used for stock market exit timing as discussed in this article The Use of Recession Indicators in Stock Market Timing.

 

Fig-3.1-4-26-2019Figure 3.1 shows the recession indicator iM-BCIg above last week’s level. An imminent recession is not signaled .

Please also refer to the BCI page

 

 

Fig-3.2-4-26-2019The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (FRR2-10) is near last week’s level and is not signaling a recession.

A description of this indicator can be found here.

 

Fig-3.3-4-26-2019The iM-Low Frequency Timer is back in the markets since 1/22/2019.

A description of this indicator can be found here.

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