Unemployment
The unemployment rate recession model (article link), has been updated with the March UER of 4.4% and signals a recession.
Here is the link to the full update.
CAPE-Cycle-ID
Fig 9a depicts the CAPE-Cycle-ID and the year-on-year rate-of-change of the Shiller CAPE; the level switched from 0 to +2 end of October-2019. This indicator is described here.
To avoid the bear market, exit stocks when the spread between the 5-month and 25-month moving averages of S&P-real becomes negative and simultaneously the CAPE-Cycle-ID score is 0 or -2. (read more)
Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns
The estimated forward 10‐year annualized real return increased to 7.8% (previous 5.8) with a 95% confidence interval : 6.6% to 9.1% (previous 4.4% to 7.2%).
iM-GT Timer
The iM-GT Timer, based on Google Search Trends volume switched out of the markets on 3/5/2020. This indicator is described here.
Trade Weighted USD
Will be updated later, the weekly FRED data series we used was discontinued and replacement series is daily and runs from 2015. We need to adapt our software and graphics first.
TIAA Real Estate Account
The 1-year rolling return for the end of last month is 3.63%, down from last month’s 4.63%.
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