Monthly Update – September 3, 2021


The 11/5/2021 BLS Employment Situation Report shows that the unemployment rate decreased by 0.2% to 4.6% in September 2021.



Fig-9a-10-8-2021Fig 9a depicts the CAPE-Cycle-ID and the year-on-year rate-of-change of the Shiller CAPE;  the level switched from 0 to +2 end of June 2020. This indicator is described here.

To avoid the bear market, exit stocks when the spread between the 5-month and 25-month moving averages of S&P-real becomes negative and simultaneously the CAPE-Cycle-ID score is 0 or -2. (read more)


Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns

Fig-9b-10-8-2021The estimated forward 10‐year annualized real return increased to 4.0 (previous 3.9) with a 95% confidence interval : 2.5% to 5.5% (2.4% to 5.5% ).



iM-GT Timer

Fig-10-10-8-2021The iM-GT Timer, based on Google Search Trends volume indicator exited the markets beginning November 2021. This indicator is described here.



Trade Weighted USD

USD-10-8-2021 Will be updated later, the weekly FRED data series we used was discontinued and replacement series is daily and runs from 2015. We need to adapt our software and graphics first.




TIAA Real Estate Account

Fig-11.-10-8-2021The 1-year rolling return for the end of March is 14.05%, up from last month’s 11.79%.

Read more …






Posted in month free

Leave a Reply

With reference to Section 202(a)(11)(D) of the Investment Advisers Act: We are Engineers and not Investment Advisers, read more ...
By the mere act of reading this page and navigating this site you acknowledge, agree to, and abide by the Terms of Use / Disclaimer