Monthly Update – September 3, 2021

Unemployment

The 10/8/2021 BLS Employment Situation Report shows that the unemployment rate decreased by 0.4% to 4.8% in September 2021.

 

CAPE-Cycle-ID

Fig-9a-10-8-2021Fig 9a depicts the CAPE-Cycle-ID and the year-on-year rate-of-change of the Shiller CAPE;  the level switched from 0 to +2 end of June 2020. This indicator is described here.

To avoid the bear market, exit stocks when the spread between the 5-month and 25-month moving averages of S&P-real becomes negative and simultaneously the CAPE-Cycle-ID score is 0 or -2. (read more)

 

Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns

Fig-9b-10-8-2021The estimated forward 10‐year annualized real return increased to 3.9 (previous 3.8) with a 95% confidence interval : 2.2% to 5.3% (2.4% to 5.4% ).

 

 

iM-GT Timer

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Trade Weighted USD

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TIAA Real Estate Account

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